Is Saudi openly declares war against Iran,
thought they're already doing it?
2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]
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Chinese netizen shares a video of an Iranian missile strike on the US Navy base in Fujairah, UAE, around 1 a.m. on March 11, 2026. All the interceptors failed to stop the missile.
Iran may threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz all it wants but the fact of the matter remains that it does not have the capability to do so.
Almost all of its surface combatants have been eliminated. Earlier today, the US took out 16 of its minelayers. Despite its supposed large stockpile of anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles, almost none of them seems to have been used in this conflict, suggesting that they have been destroyed or not many were produced to begin with. Iran's air force put up less of a fight than Iraq's did back in 2003 and are essentially no longer a viable fighting force. Iran does not have any materiel with which it could credibly threaten shipping in the Strait, and certainly not with USN submarines at the standby. The US realizes this and understandably has not really paid too much attention to Iran's verbal threats.
At this point, with the Hormuz "trump card" all but negated, Iran's remaining credible deterrent in this conflict is its leftover stockpile of ballistic missiles, which is undoubtedly being depleted or destroyed at a rate faster than they could be replaced. It has no navy, air force, organized command and control, or a credible proxy network. Sooner or later, those missiles will run out as well. While it may be correct to point out certain shortcomings of the US effort in this campaign, it needs to be said that Iran faces a much more dire - and perhaps even existential - situation.
Almost all of its surface combatants have been eliminated. Earlier today, the US took out 16 of its minelayers. Despite its supposed large stockpile of anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles, almost none of them seems to have been used in this conflict, suggesting that they have been destroyed or not many were produced to begin with. Iran's air force put up less of a fight than Iraq's did back in 2003 and are essentially no longer a viable fighting force. Iran does not have any materiel with which it could credibly threaten shipping in the Strait, and certainly not with USN submarines at the standby. The US realizes this and understandably has not really paid too much attention to Iran's verbal threats.
At this point, with the Hormuz "trump card" all but negated, Iran's remaining credible deterrent in this conflict is its leftover stockpile of ballistic missiles, which is undoubtedly being depleted or destroyed at a rate faster than they could be replaced. It has no navy, air force, organized command and control, or a credible proxy network. Sooner or later, those missiles will run out as well. While it may be correct to point out certain shortcomings of the US effort in this campaign, it needs to be said that Iran faces a much more dire - and perhaps even existential - situation.
While Iran is in the process of running out of ballistic missiles the US has pretty much run out of interceptors which means it will eventually run out of basing area. Destroying bases won’t require missiles when drones will do just as well. The US is of course absolutely capable of lifting the choke on Hormuz if it really wants but we will see if it will be able to do so without losing some ships. Keep in mind that the US and Israel have to kill a lot more things in Iran to beat Iran than vice versa, and if there’s any slowdown in rate of attack we could easily find ourselves in a situation where Iran is regenerating what it needs to build momentum in the fighting faster than the US or Israel. The decisive warfighting dynamic here is ultimately not about Iran’s political leverage around Hormuz but Iran’s ability to erode the basing footholds that allow the US to project power into this theater.
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From what I understand, most if not all of the nearby bases were evacuated right before the conflict with the exception of skeleton crews of sorts. The US does not require those bases to launch standoff attacks against Iran when the Lincoln and Ford are in the AOR. Other than some expensive gadgets like the AN/TPY-2, the US can and has treated them like sacrificial lambs so long as the carriers are protected.
I don't see how the US would risk losing any of its ships by enforcing freedom of passage in the Strait when Iran nothing but slow-moving Shaheds to use against them.
Iran has been pushing the US’s staging areas further and further back over the course of this war. It’s why the tankers flew out of Prince Sultan yesterday. Each time US basing support is peeled back that penalizes sustained sortie rates. For example, earlier last week it was clear the GCCs were providing basing capacity for US sortie recovery ops (why those 3 F-15s that got downed were flying into Kuwait), and that matters for sortie rates because it relaxes aerial refueling burdens and lets planes fly longer intervals without worrying about saving fuel for return flights as much. That’s likely stopped as the bases in the GCCs have been getting hit more and more. This attrition is one of the factors that lead the US to announce a slower tempo middle of last week. If the US weren’t losing basing capacity on land it also wouldn’t have to activate Ford and then also call in Washington. Nonetheless the carriers can’t do everything either. Their sustainment over a drawn out fight is going to be poorer than ground based sorties and they also need tanker support chained to land bases unless they want to sail into range of Iran’s coastal defenses.
Ship defenses in close range are easy to overwhelm with saturation attacks because engagement window is constrained by lead time to impact.
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Two things: Article 5 of NATO and, most importantly, Türkiye has even better military capabilities than Iran :3
What threaten? It's already closed for days. Hardly any ships passing through. No antiship missiles used because no ships passing through?
US bases in the region have been obliterated, Hezbollah bombing northern Israel, Iraqi militia pounding American bases in Iraq, Israeli cities in lockdown with immense damage, and you're actually suggesting Iran has neither a proxy network nor any C&C! Either you're not following this thread closely or you are coping hard.
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