2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

Will Iran-Israel conflict start again?

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meedicx

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SlothmanAllen said:
I doubt US is really concerned about MQ-9 Reaper losses. According to the 2025 Air Force Almanac, there are 230 MQ-9 Reapers in service with an average airframe age of ~7.2 years. Given that losses of MQ-9's don't cost human lives, and when combined with the relatively large inventory (along with low age of airframe), I think these platforms might be viewed as expendable (to an extent).

Also, I think we need to stop talking about US losses in dollar terms. For a country like the US, a couple hundred million in drone losses is not of material concern. They are talking about a $50 billion supplementary package to fund munition replenishment for the War in Iran, on top of a ~$450 billion reconciliation bill (or just raising Defense spending by ~50%) to bring defense spending to $1.5 trillion.

If you want to talk about US losses, look the difficulty in replacing AN/TPY-2 radars due China's stranglehold on GaN (and other rare earth mineral) production.
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Wouldn't basing be more of a concern than attrition for MQ-9 drones? If US loses basing access in Arab countries, do these drones even have enough range to do a round trip while launching from Israel? I guess they can still be launched from aircraft carriers in the Indian Ocean
 
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iewgnem

Captain
Registered Member
SlothmanAllen said:
I doubt US is really concerned about MQ-9 Reaper losses. According to the 2025 Air Force Almanac, there are 230 MQ-9 Reapers in service with an average airframe age of ~7.2 years. Given that losses of MQ-9's don't cost human lives, and when combined with the relatively large inventory (along with low age of airframe), I think these platforms might be viewed as expendable (to an extent).

Also, I think we need to stop talking about US losses in dollar terms. For a country like the US, a couple hundred million in drone losses is not of material concern. They are talking about a $50 billion supplementary package to fund munition replenishment for the War in Iran, on top of a ~$450 billion reconciliation bill (or just raising Defense spending by ~50%) to bring defense spending to $1.5 trillion.

If you want to talk about US losses, look the difficulty in replacing AN/TPY-2 radars due China's stranglehold on GaN (and other rare earth mineral) production.
Click to expand...
Its true that talking about things in $ terms are meaningless, but that's more of an American problem isn't it. It's America that likes to claim they're the most powerful based on military budget, and they're the on who like to claim to have the best equipment based on cost of equipment. If you stop counting things in $ terms, you also have to accept America might not even match Russia in military power.
 
Lethe

Lethe

Captain
SlothmanAllen said:
I doubt US is really concerned about MQ-9 Reaper losses. According to the 2025 Air Force Almanac, there are 230 MQ-9 Reapers in service with an average airframe age of ~7.2 years. Given that losses of MQ-9's don't cost human lives, and when combined with the relatively large inventory (along with low age of airframe), I think these platforms might be viewed as expendable (to an extent).

Also, I think we need to stop talking about US losses in dollar terms. For a country like the US, a couple hundred million in drone losses is not of material concern. They are talking about a $50 billion supplementary package to fund munition replenishment for the War in Iran, on top of a ~$450 billion reconciliation bill (or just raising Defense spending by ~50%) to bring defense spending to $1.5 trillion.

If you want to talk about US losses, look the difficulty in replacing AN/TPY-2 radars due China's stranglehold on GaN (and other rare earth mineral) production.
Click to expand...

Yes, this idea that the path to victory is paved with TikTok videos of downed drones is rather dubious. The US military lost over 5000 helicopters in Vietnam and they didn't pull out because they ran out of helicopters.

(Of course the same point can be made in reverse re: slick American footage of strikes on Iranian assets and declarations of overwhelming victory.)
 
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iewgnem

Captain
Registered Member
Lethe said:
Yes, this idea that the path to victory is paved with TikTok videos of downed drones is rather dubious. The US military lost over 5000 helicopters in Vietnam and they didn't pull out because they ran out of helicopters.

(Of course the same point can be made in reverse re: slick American footage of strikes on Iranian assets and declarations of overwhelming victory.)
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1975 America also had an industrial base capable of replenishing lost gear and wasn't dependant on the Soviet Union for material and parts while fighting Soviet backed Vietnam.
 
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SlothmanAllen

Senior Member
Registered Member
meedicx said:
Wouldn't basing be more of a concern than attrition for MQ-9 drones? If US loses basing access in Arab countries, do these drones even have enough range to do a round trip while launching from Israel? I guess they can still be launched from aircraft carriers in the Indian Ocean
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Certainly, but it seems like the US continues to use MQ-9's so I don' think they have lost the ability to deploy them over Iran.

iewgnem said:
Its true that talking about things in $ terms are meaningless, but that's more of an American problem isn't it. It's America that likes to claim they're the most powerful based on military budget, and they're the on who like to claim to have the best equipment based on cost of equipment. If you stop counting things in $ terms, you also have to accept America might not even match Russia in military power.
Click to expand...

Sorry, I just don't understand what the point you are trying to make is? I don't think we can look at the Russian-Ukrainian war and attempt to draw parallels between the US/Israel-Iran War.

Overall, I think the best approach to take to this war is to wait and see. I think the true outcome might be decided years from now.
 
I

iewgnem

Captain
Registered Member
SlothmanAllen said:
Sorry, I just don't understand what the point you are trying to make is? I don't think we can look at the Russian-Ukrainian war and attempt to draw parallels between the US/Israel-Iran War.

Overall, I think the best approach to take to this war is to wait and see. I think the true outcome might be decided years from now.
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The point I'm trying to make is I'm agreeing with you on the meaningless of $ measurement of equipment and want to remind you it also implies American military is not nearly as powerful as Americans thought, which is pretty evident now thanks to Iran.

America doesn't have years, if oil reserves run out before they find an off-ramp, it's over: no more petro dollar, no more military credibility, and $40 trillion in debt comes due with interest

People like to point out Trump has no goal for this war, that might have been true a week ago, but America does have a goal now: survive.
 
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