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RobertC

Junior Member
Registered Member
Bellum_Romanum said:
... The long piece (“Madman and the Trap”) is the result of that: my argument, but with the claims explicitly split into: what’s empirically grounded, what’s a reasonable strategic inference, and what’s still just a hypothesis that needs evidence. I’m sharing it here not as “this is definitely how it is,” but as one coherent way to connect the micro‑discussion we’re having (ASEAN reserves, who gets screwed first) to the macro question of who the Iran war really traps when you zoom out to the US–China level. If folks are interested, I’m happy to post the full essay and we can pick apart where you think the structural logic works and where it breaks.
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If your long piece is limited to USN vs PLAN conflicts per your #144,968 post, then it will be incomplete. Per published doctrine and multiple training events, China would bring an integrated PLAN-CCG-maritime militia force to bear in the subject conflicts.

Let's assume, for example, the USN brings its entire 7th Fleet to blockade the Strait of Malacca. One of China's counters could be surrounding each USN ship with two dozen maritime militia ships in a manner that didn't violate the laws of the sea but complicated USN mission planning and real-time navigation. And just over the horizon would be a Type 055 to ensure only words not missiles were exchanged.

This is just one scenario. China has developed and trained for many. For any analysis to be complete it must address the integrated force.
 
Chevalier

Chevalier

Major
Registered Member
9dashline said:
they wont draft good looking women that's for sure, maybe they can sacrifice the Jia Hinds males that are "fully support sarrr"
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If you look at the latest casualties from operation Epstein fury, the ones they don’t publish publicly tend to be brown and African American.Good looking females tend to become mistresses of senior commissioned officers as their aides, even the psyop thirst traps like Lujan
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FriedButter said:
If you need a reference point for this rich people grocery store.

Cooked White Rice = $11 per pound
Roasted Sweet Potato = $15 per pound
Glass Noodles = $19.50 per pound


———

And $21 per pound Mac and Cheese.

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Erewhon is so obviously a money laundering entity, no different to those U.S. candy stores in London.
 
P

pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
bebops said:
On his recent podcast, he said Iran will be in ruins and US will be out of Mideast. That leaves Israel the only regional power in Mideast.

I am thinking the world will look like this in the future.

US will rule the Western Hemisphere, Europe will rule Africa, Israel rule Mideast, while China and India rule Asia.
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Israel cannot rule Mideast. Putin has given Israel signals but Israel as left leaning state will have hard time sustaining itself and cannot compete with Russia in military power and tech.
See this video. Putin maximally avoiding Europeans when he enter with Israeli President to a forum in Israel. and mere presence of Putin in this event made Zelensky and other East Europeans not attend.
Saudi can rule both Africa and Europe in technical cooperation with Russia.
Putin is too polite in public but he let other define the kind of demographics that need to be multiplied. took him couple of decades to fully understand soft power transfer.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1791574928375873947
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Putin awarded the title Hero of Russia to an Afghan war veteran.​

Kovtun was promised high knowledge back in the USSR
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Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
RobertC said:
If your long piece is limited to USN vs PLAN conflicts per your #144,968 post, then it will be incomplete. Per published doctrine and multiple training events, China would bring an integrated PLAN-CCG-maritime militia force to bear in the subject conflicts.

Let's assume, for example, the USN brings its entire 7th Fleet to blockade the Strait of Malacca. One of China's counters could be surrounding each USN ship with two dozen maritime militia ships in a manner that didn't violate the laws of the sea but complicated USN mission planning and real-time navigation. And just over the horizon would be a Type 055 to ensure only words not missiles were exchanged.

This is just one scenario. China has developed and trained for many. For any analysis to be complete it must address the integrated force.
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This is just one scenario. I completely agree that any serious analysis has to treat the PLAN, CCG and maritime militia as an integrated system, not just “USN vs PLAN.” China has obviously trained for a whole menu of counters like the one you outlined. You’re also way ahead of me on the operational side - I am clueless. From your posts it’s obvious you’ve actually read the doctrine and thought through the weapon systems and CONOPS in detail. I haven’t, so I’m not going to pretend I can spar with you on “how many hulls where” or what an optimal blockade posture looks like. Where my head’s been is from the bird's eye view: the strategic geometry rather than the exact order of battle. I’ve been trying to understand the Iran/Hormuz crisis as a move in the wider US–China contest—who really sits in the energy and trade choke points, who gets structurally trapped if Hormuz/Malacca stay hot, what that does to China’s ASEAN pivot, etc. I ended up writing a longer piece on that, and I used a couple of LLMs as research assistants / sounding boards to stress‑test my own thinking (fact‑checking trade/energy data, forcing me to separate hard facts from inference, that kind of thing). It’s very much a strategy‑level essay, not an ORBAT wargame. If you have the time and interest, I’d actually value a critical read from someone who does think in terms of integrated forces. In particular, I’d be keen to hear where you think my “Iran war as leverage on China’s energy + ASEAN corridor” framing breaks once you factor in the kind of PLAN‑CCG‑militia responses you’re describing.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
9dashline said:
Damn did you use AI to write this? no human admits to 'going down the rabbit hole', that is LLM speech...
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Okay, leave the AI aside..Do you disagree with the structural claim that an Iran/Hormuz crisis objectively hits China+ASEAN harder than the US, and if so, why?
 
R

RobertC

Junior Member
Registered Member
Bellum_Romanum said:
Do you disagree with the structural claim that an Iran/Hormuz crisis objectively hits China+ASEAN harder than the US, and if so, why?
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I don't disagree with a structural analysis showing China+ASEAN vs US effects. But I believe your analysis is "straight-line" presuming China continues on its current path. I believe China will use this crisis as an opportunity to reorder ASEAN's relationships with the US by instituting a petroleum sharing arrangement for East Asia. Augmented by Russia's petroleum and China's "Green" technology, the urgency demanded by the crisis would be a win-win for China+ASEAN (CPTPP and RCEP) to turn away from US hegemony and towards a climate-friendly future.

This might be an occasion where crisis means danger plus opportunity.
 
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