09V/09VI (095/096) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Tomboy]

You don't necessarily need tankers - strategic bombers can do it on internal fuel. It just won't be full payload, but payload will still be substantial, and much depends on strike profile. Case example - Soviet Tu-160s could strike CONUS w/o refuel only with 1 bay of missiles (second bay was taken by soft fuel tank), because missiles were shorter ranged and profile had to take into account penetration.
Newer Ru missiles, despite being much heavier - allow 2 bays: their range is so much higher, that bomber doesn't need to do penetration at all, and just keeps small reserve for breaking off pursuit.

Also, we're approaching offtop here, but one of main reasons to even have strategic bombers as opposed to other legs of nuclear triad is exactly that you can have them sortie more than once. They're reloadable strike system, which can search targets for itself even in post-exchange world. It is also used to reinstate deterrence against opportunistic third powers.

Again, as far as I know there are no bomber in existence that can fly all the way to CONUS from mainland China and return all on internal fuel. Even with ferry range this is impossible.

So what you are suggesting is simply not possible

 

[bsdnf]

The vast majority of the Pacific Ocean is deeper than the crush depth of a submarine.
Hydrological data should be of minimal importance.

I mean, the depth of the island chain, not the depth of the ocean.

If the Type 095 can break through the first island chain, or even approach the second island chain, it will definitely be able to collect a considerable amount of data.

 

[Gloire_bb]

Again, as far as I know there are no bomber in existence that can fly all the way to CONUS from mainland China and return all on internal fuel. Even with ferry range this is impossible.

So what you are suggesting is simply not possible

Spoiler

This isn't fully true - Tu-160M and Tu-95MSM with their current stand off weapons very comfortably reach any point of continental US from continental China(11'000 km straight, but only ~4500 to min launch point), and B-52H reaches at least west coast. Yes, they don't reach CONUS themselves, but this isn't the point.

But the more important here is not really current bombers. Russia and US don't need that much to reach other's southern borders, but this is just their task. If China needs more - it needs to design aircraft appropriately. And as we know, China just happens to design a strategic aircraft for itself. There's no need to force SSGN into a mission it can't compete in. On a wider level, there's no need to build a SSGN if this is the purpose.

SSGN will by default lose this competition - it doesn't really get to carry larger weapons (especially if it wants to remain viable as multi purpose boat), in fact it's the other way around. As a transport system, it's hampered(and made more vulnerable) by speed lower by more than full order of magnitude. Sending ships(surface, subsurface) just to carry strikes of opposite cost of Pacific and back will result in absolutely laughable bombing bandwidth...

 

[magmunta]

striking continental USA, sinking air craft carriers, mapping out the pacific, escorting chinese naval assets have been mentioned; why no one mentioned "sniffing" internet&communications cables coming in and out of Taiwan as one of the main roles? american subs had tapped soviet KGB cables in the 70s close to Kamchatka peninsula. By the way, as I remember, chinese military has identified the failure of communications disruption by russians against ukraine in 2022 as one of the reasons the initial invasion in 2022 failed. the cables coming in and out of taiwan sound too juicy.

 

[BoraTas]

striking continental USA, sinking air craft carriers, mapping out the pacific, escorting chinese naval assets have been mentioned; why no one mentioned "sniffing" internet&communications cables coming in and out of Taiwan as one of the main roles? american subs had tapped soviet KGB cables in the 70s close to Kamchatka peninsula. By the way, as I remember, chinese military has identified the failure of communications disruption by russians against ukraine in 2022 as one of the reasons the initial invasion in 2022 failed. the cables coming in and out of taiwan sound too juicy.

China is probably doing that with UUVs or midget subs already. Taiwan is right next to China. I think China will eventually get 1-4 nuclear subs for seabed warfare duties, which may even include Belgorod like motherships, but they have a much more pressing need for normal submarines. The 09V is just too valuable for that duty and it is likely that it cannot dive deep enough for that role. Something with a max depth of 1000+ meter is better for that. If it has an hangar option for UUVs or spec ops subs, it might do seabed warfare duties through carried vehicles. It won't be the main role or even a common one.

 

[mister unknown]

China is probably doing that with UUVs or midget subs already. Taiwan is right next to China. I think China will eventually get 1-4 nuclear subs for seabed warfare duties, which may even include Belgorod like motherships, but they have a much more pressing need for normal submarines. The 09V is just too valuable for that duty and it is likely that it cannot dive deep enough for that role. Something with a max depth of 1000+ meter is better for that. If it has an hangar option for UUVs or spec ops subs, it might do seabed warfare duties through carried vehicles. It won't be the main role or even a common one.

Speaking of UUVs, what do we know (& what's the consensus speculation) about the 09V's ability to carry relatively expendable companion drones?

 

[AndrewS]

Spoiler

This isn't fully true - Tu-160M and Tu-95MSM with their current stand off weapons very comfortably reach any point of continental US from continental China(11'000 km straight, but only ~4500 to min launch point), and B-52H reaches at least west coast. Yes, they don't reach CONUS themselves, but this isn't the point.

Can you expand on what you mean by this?

My understanding is that the longest-ranged air-launched missile is the JL-1, which weighs 15 tonnes and has a range of 3000km.

If a non-stealthy bomber (such as the Tu-160, Tu-95 or B-52) has to cross the 1IC, 2IC and still approach to within 3000km of target in the Western Pacific, I expect it would be shot down before it can launch missiles.

I would also add that crossing Russian airspace is not guaranteed as it would be a huge political decision for the Russians.

---

So that leaves a stealth bomber design which could get through.

But if we use the B-2 as a baseline, it could only carry two JL-1 missiles at most (I'm being generous), and would still face the political issue of crossing Russian airspace.

But the more important here is not really current bombers. Russia and US don't need that much to reach other's southern borders, but this is just their task. If China needs more - it needs to design aircraft appropriately. And as we know, China just happens to design a strategic aircraft for itself. There's no need to force SSGN into a mission it can't compete in. On a wider level, there's no need to build a SSGN if this is the purpose.

SSGN will by default lose this competition - it doesn't really get to carry larger weapons (especially if it wants to remain viable as multi purpose boat), in fact it's the other way around. As a transport system, it's hampered(and made more vulnerable) by speed lower by more than full order of magnitude. Sending ships(surface, subsurface) just to carry strikes of opposite cost of Pacific and back will result in absolutely laughable bombing bandwidth...

If China were to send a stealth bomber to cross the Pacific Ocean (avoiding Russia and Japan), then it's at least a 14,000km+ return journey, assuming missiles are launched 3000km away at coastal targets, never mind inland.

This is a 50% increase in range over the B-2, and implies that China would need to develop a stealth bomber with 6-8 engines.
My guess is that such a stealth bomber would be comparable in cost to a single SSGN.

And in terms of sortie rates, my guess is that the bomber could fly every 2-3days from China to the Eastern Pacific.
Then assume a SSGN has a round trip length of 22 days and could launch ~40 missiles (assuming a stretched SSN)
In the same timeframe, the bomber would only hit 22 targets.

So an SSGN actually has twice the bandwidth of the equivalent stealth bomber.

 

[tphuang]

Spoiler

This isn't fully true - Tu-160M and Tu-95MSM with their current stand off weapons very comfortably reach any point of continental US from continental China(11'000 km straight, but only ~4500 to min launch point), and B-52H reaches at least west coast. Yes, they don't reach CONUS themselves, but this isn't the point.

But the more important here is not really current bombers. Russia and US don't need that much to reach other's southern borders, but this is just their task. If China needs more - it needs to design aircraft appropriately. And as we know, China just happens to design a strategic aircraft for itself. There's no need to force SSGN into a mission it can't compete in. On a wider level, there's no need to build a SSGN if this is the purpose.

SSGN will by default lose this competition - it doesn't really get to carry larger weapons (especially if it wants to remain viable as multi purpose boat), in fact it's the other way around. As a transport system, it's hampered(and made more vulnerable) by speed lower by more than full order of magnitude. Sending ships(surface, subsurface) just to carry strikes of opposite cost of Pacific and back will result in absolutely laughable bombing bandwidth...

This is again wildly off topic. This is a thread on 095 and 096. SSGNs are clearly relevant platforms and very useful. Anything more from you on this will be deleted.

 

[tphuang]

Can you expand on what you mean by this?

My understanding is that the longest-ranged air-launched missile is the JL-1, which weighs 15 tonnes and has a range of 3000km.

If a non-stealthy bomber (such as the Tu-160, Tu-95 or B-52) has to cross the 1IC, 2IC and still approach to within 3000km of target in the Western Pacific, I expect it would be shot down before it can launch missiles.

I would also add that crossing Russian airspace is not guaranteed as it would be a huge political decision for the Russians.

---

So that leaves a stealth bomber design which could get through.

But if we use the B-2 as a baseline, it could only carry two JL-1 missiles at most (I'm being generous), and would still face the political issue of crossing Russian airspace.






If China were to send a stealth bomber to cross the Pacific Ocean (avoiding Russia and Japan), then it's at least a 14,000km+ return journey, assuming missiles are launched 3000km away at coastal targets, never mind inland.

This is a 50% increase in range over the B-2, and implies that China would need to develop a stealth bomber with 6-8 engines.
My guess is that such a stealth bomber would be comparable in cost to a single SSGN.

And in terms of sortie rates, my guess is that the bomber could fly every 2-3days from China to the Eastern Pacific.
Then assume a SSGN has a round trip length of 22 days and could launch ~40 missiles (assuming a stretched SSN)
In the same timeframe, the bomber would only hit 22 targets.

So an SSGN actually has twice the bandwidth of the equivalent stealth bomber.

Again, this is wildly off topic now. Please stick to 095 and 096.

 

[mack8]

A couple of questions if i may, first, about those 12 meter modules seen in the sat pics at Huludao, when is the last time they were spotted there? I recall someone saying maybe late autumn, if so, would that be an indication of multiple 095s being built? I imagine the 095 just launched has been assembled well before that as i wouldn't think modules from 3-4 months ago would translate into a launched sub that quickly. Some unconfirmed rumours i've read point to at least 2 095s under construction, with one launched already as seen.

Secondly, what is the chinese grapevine saying about current status of the 096 SSBN, did building started yet? Again, unconfirmed rumours i've read say maybe one 096 is building already.