Kind of glad to see Professor Walt receive more exposure. For a while, it seemed as if he and John Mearsheimer were getting somewhat blackballed after publishing
.
As usual, I applaud the thoughtfulness of your analysis. I wish more people on this forum and in general understood and recognized
tradeoffs as you do!
However, assuming I'm reading you correctly, I'm skeptical
an effective independent European security architecture will emerge should Washington exit NATO.
1. It's easy for Eurocrats to talk about further European integration — including militarily — but not sure
be
secure
.
2. Until 1945, European kingdoms, principalities and so forth were frequently — if not constantly — at war with one another. The peace that has been achieved these last 81 years or so may very well represent an exception, rather than a sustainable new norm for the continent.
3. While some European capitals like London and Warsaw are unlikely to make nice with Moscow in our lifetimes, rapprochement between other European capitals — like Berlin and even Paris — and Moscow is plausible, especially if more anti-establishment populist leaders are voted into office on the continent. If nothing else, the Germans need access to cheap Russian hydrocarbons, unless they wish to accept further de-industrialization or allow themselves to meaningfully pursue nuclear power.
As more American elites — especially members of Congress — come to recognize that their moment of unipolarity is over, it's going to make increasing sense for US policymakers to stop letting the interests of fundamentally irrelevant actors like Estonia and Lithuania, and increasingly unimportant states like Britain shape American security priorities (even if that seemed unimaginable in the past).
Not to say this is particularly achievable — with someone as crude and sloppy as Trump at the helm — but a significantly leaner and perhaps rebranded NATO represents another possibility.
To be fair, Trump's abrasive — if not unhinged and vibes based — public statements combined with Rutte's embarrassing desperation may ultimately translate to unpredictable, if not volatile outcomes.
Hard to say just what'll happen in the next three years, but no "alliance" is forever, not even NATO.
