Miscellaneous News

[tokenanalyst]

Uh Oh

 

[tokenanalyst]

Who said China is going to overtake US for sure? It's economy as a fraction of US GDP is actually declining. There's a high level of talent exodus, many sectors where US has much higher market share, various other issues. It's competing yes, but far from confirmed to have overtaken the US.

Don't be so uncharacteristically complacent. Paranoia and Humility have served China well in the past, they will do so in the future as well.

China economy is 1.5X higher than the US.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Uh Oh
View attachment 168871

With the way things backfire on Trump, this might end up with some liberal states using his own words to trap him and going to join Canada LOL

China economy is 1.5X higher than the US.

You know he doesn't use straight data. He's uses whatever makes China look the worst and if that's China holding down the value of the RMB then it's nominal converted to USD. If China lets the RMB rise so that the economy's flying up by 2T+ per year, then it's time to compare per capita. If China gets over the US per capita, then it's divided by education years for "efficiency." LOL

 

[jli88]

comparing China to small countries

So you agree that countries with smaller population are small? Why then don't you have a problem with China becoming small in the future?

I knew this was the stupid mistake you were making, comparing China to small countries that never posed a systemic challenge to the Western order, economically, technologically or militariliy and never had to fight their opposing force whilst growing. China is not in any phase that any of those countries have been in. China has technology that none of them ever had on a comprehensive level. Middle income, developed country, etc... those terms are all totally meaningless. There are countries that specialize in vacation packages and fishing that are on the high income list. And China, with its rockets, satellites, aircraft carriers, was on the middle income list. There are countries that have no crucial technology whatsoever on the developed countries list when China was already leading the US in some even whilst on the developing countries list.

Being economically developed or being rich has nothing to do with geopolitical clout. A small country can become rich just by selling its natural resources, or by tourism, or by technology.

In fact being economically developed and doing well economically is only going to help China.

Imagine a China with four times the nominal GDP of the US, with people enjoying same Quality of Life as in the US. This China would have incredible say in the world.

To achieve this vision, China needs to be growing sustained, nominally at 9-10%. Which it can clearly do. It is not doing that because of policy choices.

These definitions mean nothing. China is not in any of those phases or comparable to any of those countries. China is in G2 phase: final showdown with the US. No one except the Soviets was in this phase and they only lasted briefly.

Is it with US or the West? Anyways, in economic terms yes it can characterized in which phase it is. The fact that the country is large and can challenge the US is a separate matter.

Could China have challenged the US without economic growth?

About 75% of America, according to a new poll. What does "for sure" mean? Are you "for sure" you will not die crossing the street tomorrow?

Where's the source for this? By the way America is the most paranoid nation on earth. That is why it treats every challenger to its dominance so seriously.

This is a stupid thing to say again and again. Are we talking about nominal this time aimed at the currency conversion? We already talked about why that doesn't matter, then you shut up and slinked away and now you bring it up again as if we never discussed before. Finish conversations or acknowledge defeat. Don't run away and start over exactly the same whenever you lose.

Nominal GDP in USD terms includes currency conversion. It matters. A lot of what people do with their money is to save, or own assets.Nominal GDP is extremely important when it comes to consumption of tradeable goods, savings etc.

Lower than before; there is a new growing level of talent influx as well.

But still quite a big tech outflow, specially pronounced at the higher/elite levels. I went to a Stanford CS PhD graduation ceremony once, and recent Chinese immigrants seemed to easily be upto 65-70% of the batch. I spoke with some, vast majority stay in the US, joining US tech firms with sometimes million dollar offers.

90% where China has greater technological mastery. Market share is paper money made by man; technology is your standing with nature.

I disagree with 90%. Market share is the dominance of the market, US has incredible market share in various tech products, including platforms, cloud, operating system, enterprise software, aircrafts, engines, space, communication etc.

Nothing is confirmed but the writing is on the wall; the US does not have the tools to hold China back and it can only stall.

Nope, US is an extremely resilient and competitive society, nothing is on the wall. Until recently, I was sure China would overtake US nominal GDP by 2030, but now I am unsure if it ever will.

Don't be so ignorant and stupid.

No, you keep that; I see you have alot. That's not a compliment when people call you paranoid.

Healthy Paranoia is a good thing.

 

[jli88]

China economy is 1.5X higher than the US.

You are using PPP right? Even by that metric, it is 41 trillion for China and 30 trillion for US, so around 1.35.

Nominal GDP however is the agreed upon usual metric for cross-comparison of country GDPs. Why? Because that is what is tradeable and exchangeable. Not to mention, nominal GDP has a bigger bearing on tradeable sector, tradeable goods, investment and cash flows, currency etc.

PPP GDP is a purely hypothetical figure, which is not even correctly calculated. I actually believe China's PPP GDP is significantly higher than calculated.

You know he doesn't use straight data. He's uses whatever makes China look the worst and if that's China holding down the value of the RMB then it's nominal converted to USD. If China lets the RMB rise so that the economy's flying up by 2T+ per year, then it's time to compare per capita. If China gets over the US per capita, then it's divided by education years for "efficiency." LOL

For the economy, the right metric for comparison is nominal GDP. If China let's the RMB rise, I would be the biggest fan, and would be singing praises. Obviously, the next step would be to equal US in per capita, but overtaking US nominal GDP would be praiseworthy feat in and of itself.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Nominal GDP in USD terms includes currency conversion. It matters. A lot of what people do with their money is to save, or own assets.Nominal GDP is extremely important when it comes to consumption of tradeable goods, savings etc.

Absolute bullshit. China imports are just 18% of the economy, most saving in China are done in China own currency, in China own Banks and in assets inside China, so is the local economy that matter most. The difference in currency just put China exports in a more competitive advantage and given that exports are 20% of China and import mostly subtract from the economy means that China economy is already more than 80% domestic dependent.

 

[manqiangrexue]

So you agree that countries with smaller population are small? Why then don't you have a problem with China becoming small in the future?

I have a problem with it, but I'm not paranoid enough to think that a trend will stretch irreversibly for generations.

Being economically developed or being rich has nothing to do with geopolitical clout.

What? It's heavily correlated. That's like saying muscles have nothing to do with strength.

A small country can become rich just by selling its natural resources, or by tourism, or by technology.

What's the point? It's not going to become a superpower that way no matter how much it has because G2 phase when you have to fight is a real bitch.

In fact being economically developed and doing well economically is only going to help China.

No reason to say this; everyone knows.

Imagine a China with four times the nominal GDP of the US, with people enjoying same Quality of Life as in the US. This China would have incredible say in the world.

Imagine... LOL child. Yeah yeah, imagine a China will 100X that. Then imagine one with 1000 times that.

To achieve this vision, China needs to be growing sustained, nominally at 9-10%.

Who said this? Where is the math?

Which it can clearly do.

Who said this? Where is the math?

It is not doing that because of policy choices.

No; it's not doing so because you imagine it can but you are a person known to speak about things you do not understand. China is fighting a trade and tech war with the entire West.

Is it with US or the West?

Both, less the second the more Trump fucks up.

Anyways, in economic terms yes it can characterized in which phase it is. The fact that the country is large and can challenge the US is a separate matter.

No, they are the same matter. It is the water that fish swim through and the size of the fish. Never compare the speed of small fish in a still pond or swimming downstream against the speed of a shark or whale fighting the current.

Could China have challenged the US without economic growth?

You ask stupid questions, you answer them.

Where's the source for this?

Oh... you're both paranoid and poorly read. We just discussed this today.

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By the way America is the most paranoid nation on earth. That is why it treats every challenger to its dominance so seriously.

By the way, you just made that up. There's no international paranoia scale; whenever shit looks bad for the US, you get a sad excuse. Last time it was... to keep the US on its toes and scare it!

Nominal GDP in USD terms includes currency conversion. It matters. A lot of what people do with their money is to save, or own assets.Nominal GDP is extremely important when it comes to consumption of tradeable goods, savings etc.

It matters to trade. It doesn't matter to the domestic economy for things like technological growth and military development. Why don't you continue your last conversation where you lost? Why start it again?

But still quite a big tech outflow, specially pronounced at the higher/elite levels.

How do you know the outflow vs inflow when it is a trade of persons for training? X people are sent abroad to be trained, Y return trained to contribute to China, Z stay in other countries. How do you know that the contributions of Y are lower than the loss of Z? The fact is that China was growing at an overtake speed against the US even when Z was larger and Y smaller than today, so that results in an acceleration for China.

I went to a Stanford CS PhD graduation ceremony once, and recent Chinese immigrants seemed to easily be upto 65-70% of the batch. I spoke with some, vast majority stay in the US, joining US tech firms with sometimes million dollar offers.

Oh, I did the same with Georgia Tech and everyone said they'll return home to serve the country. All the foreigners said they'll work for China too cus the US has spiraled into insanity. All the white kids said they'll send whatever tech they get to China to help end America's last tantrum. We all have our little stories, don't we?

I disagree with 90%.

And everyone disagreed with you, proved that you don't even know what lithography was while debating tech, and you lost and ran away. Nobody cares if you disagree again. We'll put you in your place again.

Market share is the dominance of the market, US has incredible market share in various tech products, including platforms, cloud, operating system, enterprise software, aircrafts, engines, space, communication etc.

Fake paper money reliant on civilities, nothing compared to actual material dominance that China has.

Nope, US is an extremely resilient and competitive society,

That is taking such a beating from China it looks like Nazi Germany right now

nothing is on the wall.

Be blind. We all see it. 75% of America sees it.

Until recently, I was sure China would overtake US nominal GDP by 2030, but now I am unsure if it ever will.

Nobody cares about nominal. It's all in the PPP. China decides when it wants to overtake the US in nominal by revaluing its currency. It can be tomorrow or never. Our call.

Healthy Paranoia is a good thing.

LOLOL No one here said you're healthy. There is no such thing as healthy paranoia. Paranoia is a mental sickness thinking things will happen without reason or evidence. "Healthy paranoia" is called being analytical. And you can't be analytical when you never understand the topics you're talking about.

For the economy, the right metric for comparison is nominal GDP.

Because you want to imagine that an apple in the US is worth 8 apples in India?

If China let's the RMB rise, I would be the biggest fan, and would be singing praises. Obviously, the next step would be to equal US in per capita, but overtaking US nominal GDP would be praiseworthy feat in and of itself.

Nobody really wants you as a fan or to hear you sing then. That's probably why LOL China has its goals and plans on how it will overtake the US. Your happiness is not a part of it.

 

[tokenanalyst]

PPP GDP is a purely hypothetical figure, which is not even correctly calculated. I actually believe China's PPP GDP is significantly higher than calculated.

GDP PPP is normally considered more accurate to describe a country domestic economy free of international currency fluctuations, that is not even a discussion. If you really want to have an argument you can talk GDP per capita or whatever economic metric that is there but that is not one.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

3.9% nominal growth, 5% real gdp growth, retail sales up 3.7% are in my opinion far below China's potential and what China should be targeting.

If China, or any sane Chinese people in business, let alone the government actually started listening to our “sagely” advice, that would be the exact moment China begins the great upheaval and collapse that Gordon Chang has been feverishly predicting for all these years!!

Let’s have some humility and definitely stay away from the mushrooms—they’re not good for you!

 

[Puss in Boots]

Judging from this guy's past statements, I think he has absolutely no economic common sense, and I guess the little knowledge he has comes from FOX.
I suggest you don't bother debating with an idiot who lacks common sense and is unwilling to learn. You'll never convince him!