PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[GZDRefugee]

That's why China is developing air and missile defense. Having a very strong missile defense is extremely important these days from a war survival perspective.

China cannot obviously destroy all of Taiwan's capabilities and some will be buried under ground. But the goal is to slowly bleed Taiwan and sap the morale of the Taiwanese.

Just look at how Iranians are revolting for Israel and US who literally killed them recently. They have been defeated mentally to the point that they are agitating for surrender and subjugation.

This is what China needs to against Taiwan. Pressure them so much that they mentally break and ask for reunification.

The Taiwanese public sentiment literally doesn't factor into this. Do you think the laypeople want to be the sacrificial lambs to contain China? Fuck no. Does the DPP care? Also fuck no. And so Taiwan is being set up as a forward fire base to inflict as much damage on China as possible before they're inevitably bombed back to the Stone Age.

Your strategy of prolonged pressure doesn't work if the enemy ruling class has been compromised and are willing to sacrifice their people as proxies. Attrition and prolonged suppression don't matter if the US-DPP full-send everything they have in a single salvo with no regard for the retaliation because the decisionmakers can flee the consequences of their choices. What would need to be done is a massive decapitation strike to effectively neuter Taiwan's ability to threaten China before this salvo can be coordinated. That means a surprise and comprehensive flattening of Taiwan that would make Curtis LeMay green with envy.

 

[FriedButter]

The Taiwanese public sentiment literally doesn't factor into this. Do you think the laypeople want to be the sacrificial lambs to contain China? Fuck no. Does the DPP care? Also fuck no. And so Taiwan is being set up as a forward fire base to inflict as much damage on China as possible before they're inevitably bombed back to the Stone Age.

It is amusing how there are people on the forum whining about the Russians not going hard on Ukraine at the start years ago. Saying how this is a lesson for China. Now they come back to insists on China keeping on the kids glove and to act in total moderation and full restraint. While the opposing side will be acting with zero restraint.

 

[GZDRefugee]

It is amusing how there are people on the forum whining about the Russians not going hard on Ukraine at the start years ago. Saying how this is a lesson for China. Now they come back to insists on China keeping on the kids glove and to act in total moderation and full restraint. While the opposing side will be acting with zero restraint.

People still think coexistence is possible when in reality it's a civilizational clash that will devolve into a brutal fight to the death between the West and China.

 

[siegecrossbow]

People still think coexistence is possible when in reality it's a civilizational clash that will devolve into a brutal fight to the death between the West and China.

It needs to end with the forced reeducation/detainment of the ritualistic pedos or there will be no hope for humanity.

 

[FriedButter]

People still think coexistence is possible when in reality it's a civilizational clash that will devolve into a brutal fight to the death between the West and China.

The people who advocate for a blockade, slow, attritional style conflict for humanitarian purposes in hopes it will reduce citizens casualties and infrastructure lost. Do not realize that path may drastically increase civilian casualties and widespread destruction of infrastructure. Such a strategy will be perceived as weakness by the opposing side.

Ironically, the best chance to avoid a civilizational clash is by committing to a full scale war over reunification. The PLA presenting an overwhelming force on the ROC military may cause hesitation to intervene. An attritional strategy will be used to prepare an hostile intervention at a time of their choosing. Forcing the PLA into striking them first or waiting for them to strike first. Guaranteeing an expanded war.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

The people who advocate for a blockade, slow, attritional style conflict for humanitarian purposes in hopes it will reduce citizens casualties and infrastructure lost. Do not realize that path may drastically increase civilian casualties and widespread destruction of infrastructure. Such a strategy will be perceived as weakness by the opposing side.

Ironically, the best chance to avoid a civilizational clash is by committing to a full scale war over reunification. The PLA presenting an overwhelming force on the ROC military may cause hesitation to intervene. An attritional strategy will be used to prepare an hostile intervention at a time of their choosing. Forcing the PLA into striking them first or waiting for them to strike first. Guaranteeing an expanded war.

Once China has 9 carriers and 80+ destroyers by 2035 along with 1800 stealth fighters, it will be utterly foolish to fight China in a Taiwan war. It will be a guaranteed embarassing defeat.

China actual should welcome a chance to fight US under such a favorable scenario where US is willingly fighting China in its own backyard.

But coming back to Taiwan, the best strategy is not a massive invasion which will lead to a costly war and massive destruction of Taiwan. I dont think it will be necessary.

I think Taiwan will fall under extreme pressure from PLA air power. A sustained no fly zone for a few years along with crippling sanction and blockade will break any kind of fighting desire from the public. Then they will revolt to put a pro-China leader into power, who will start the reunification process

 

[Neurosmith]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016145832005820585

It's a sensationalist piece from a tabloid masquerading as a credible military news source.

It has been known for years that Taiwan has deployed long-range cruise missiles. There is nothing new that adds to or detracts from this equation.

 

[supersnoop]

And people will still say that nothing needs to be done, that Taiwan will inevitably choose a peaceful option.

Not if they were always meant to be a sacrifice to bleed China.

The source is Military Watch Magazine, its not exactly reputable.
Now we know there are US personnel, but the number of missiles in Taiwan that can reliably strike the mainland are somewhere between 0 and "come on now". The HF-2 shown is a subsonic cruise missile which would pose a minimal threat to a 054A with datalinks, let alone anything newer.

I mean is it even possible? Barely anyone identifies as Chinese as the DDP pretty much De-sinoized the island making peaceful unification pretty much impossible. China would no choice but forcibly take the Island.

The De-sinoization by DPP is weak at best. It is a fake identity. Look at the Gymboss, he wore one of those "I AM TAIWANESE, NOT CHINESE" Shirts a few years ago and was a DPP fave at rallies. Now he is livestreaming from the mainland and saying he is proud to be Chinese. Similarly the journalist Angelica Oung (born in Taipei, grew up in the US, went back after school) used to write for DPP aligned Taipei Times and now thinks the DPP are retarded. It is really hard to say "I am NOT CHINESE" then look around the "country" and see all the signs in some language that is definitely not Chinese.

 

[siegecrossbow]

The source is Military Watch Magazine, its not exactly reputable.
Now we know there are US personnel, but the number of missiles in Taiwan that can reliably strike the mainland are somewhere between 0 and "come on now". The HF-2 shown is a subsonic cruise missile which would pose a minimal threat to a 054A with datalinks, let alone anything newer.



The De-sinoization by DPP is weak at best. It is a fake identity. Look at the Gymboss, he wore one of those "I AM TAIWANESE, NOT CHINESE" Shirts a few years ago and was a DPP fave at rallies. Now he is livestreaming from the mainland and saying he is proud to be Chinese. Similarly the journalist Angelica Oung (born in Taipei, grew up in the US, went back after school) used to write for DPP aligned Taipei Times and now thinks the DPP are retarded. It is really hard to say "I am NOT CHINESE" then look around the "country" and see all the signs in some language that is definitely not Chinese.

A lot of this has to do with Lai Chingde sucking at providing winology compared with Tsai. Ever since he took over Taiwan’s been taking one L after another.

 

[AndrewS]

I think Taiwan will fall under extreme pressure from PLA air power. A sustained no fly zone for a few years along with crippling sanction and blockade will break any kind of fighting desire from the public. Then they will revolt to put a pro-China leader into power, who will start the reunification process

I think a sustained no fly zone and naval blockade would likely collapse the Taiwanese economy in a matter of weeks.
Taiwan relies on imports for food and energy.

There would be no point prolonging the suffering for years.

Get it over with as soon as possible with minimal casualties and disruption for everyone, then afterwards focus on the reconstruction.