J-20... The New Generation Fighter

[tphuang]

Re: New Generation Fighter

Well the thing is the said head of PLAAF, He Weirong, said that the J-XX program is underway and that the plane will fly this year or the next. That lends quite a bit of credence to the Big Shrimp's stories, in my opinion.

I do agree that introduction won't happen until 2017 or later.

I dont think you understand my post. I reads pages and pages of chinese bbs everyday. Whatever you read, I probably read also. But, you can't always treat these things as gold. The most credible comment made this far is what the plaaf head said last year. I personally believe that fourth generation fighter will test fly soon, but that is due to my analysis of the sources which I consider to be good and not good on chinese forums. Now, a bunch of internet warriors who post on this forum and pakdef (there seems to be some kind of chinese poster invasion on that forum) seem to just treat these chinese bbs sources as gold. In many cases, they have been proven wrong. So, saying that just because a couple of guys in chinese forum said this will not convince a lot of people who do not respect the same source.

 

[Semi-Lobster]

Re: New Generation Fighter

The tech gap between 4th generation fighters and 3rd generation fighters is the largest among all fighters since WW2, probably comparable or even bigger than tech gap between 3rd generation fighters and 1st generation fighters due to stealth.

A J-20, lets say, with even J-11's engines and radars, are still way way better than J-11 in air-combat thanks to being stealth: internal military excerise between J-10 and J-11 show J-10 can beat J-11 easily (8:1), partially because J-10 can spot a J-11 ~15-20 km more than J-11 can spot a J-10 due to J-11's huge RCS, this gives J-10 a critical advantage such that they can make their plan to trap the J-11s.

And now replace J-10 with a stealth fighter and you can imagine the outcome.

Needless to say J-20's radar is highly likely being ready in time, the only part which lag behind is engine.

So when J-20 become ready (besides the engine part), there is no point to waste any resources on the last generation fighters, they will enter production with the downgraded engines, and when the more capable engines become ready, they will introduced them into their later batch of J-20s, just like the case of how Soviet handles their MiG-23 production.

Just during one most recent TV interview, a professor and major general of PLA's national defense university, openly said the priority for Chinese 4th generation fighters are (from high to low): 1, Stealth, 2, Networks, datalink and advanced radar and sensors/electrionics 3, Mechanical performance like supercruise and post-stall manuerves etcs.

Which just proved my points.

I've been thinking about this for a while but is China the only country in the world to use their own 'generational' system for aircraft than anybody else? 4th generation in China is 5th in the ROTW, 3rd is 4th, 2nd is 3rd and 1st is a combination of 1st and 2nd

 

[latenlazy]

Re: New Generation Fighter

The tech gap between 4th generation fighters and 3rd generation fighters is the largest among all fighters since WW2, probably comparable or even bigger than tech gap between 3rd generation fighters and 1st generation fighters due to stealth.

A J-20, lets say, with even J-11's engines and radars, are still way way better than J-11 in air-combat thanks to being stealth: internal military excerise between J-10 and J-11 show J-10 can beat J-11 easily (8:1), partially because J-10 can spot a J-11 ~15-20 km more than J-11 can spot a J-10 due to J-11's huge RCS, this gives J-10 a critical advantage such that they can make their plan to trap the J-11s.

And now replace J-10 with a stealth fighter and you can imagine the outcome.

Needless to say J-20's radar is highly likely being ready in time, the only part which lag behind is engine.

So when J-20 become ready (besides the engine part), there is no point to waste any resources on the last generation fighters, they will enter production with the downgraded engines, and when the more capable engines become ready, they will introduced them into their later batch of J-20s, just like the case of how Soviet handles their MiG-23 production.

Just during one most recent TV interview, a professor and major general of PLA's national defense university, openly said the priority for Chinese 4th generation fighters are (from high to low): 1, Stealth, 2, Networks, datalink and advanced radar and sensors/electrionics 3, Mechanical performance like supercruise and post-stall manuerves etcs.

Which just proved my points.

Unfortunately, the reality of military procurement is that things must be phased in, as you can't churn out a couple of hundred quality planes all at once. With a tentative IOC of 2020 (plus or minus a few years) the J-10A will be a 20 year old plane, using a 30 year old design. Add in how long it takes for the air force to transition to reasonable numbers (anywhere from 5-15 years depending on the size of procurement and rate of production), and you can quickly see why it's necessary for an intermediary design to fill in the gaps.

 

[rhino123]

Re: New Generation Fighter

I've been thinking about this for a while but is China the only country in the world to use their own 'generational' system for aircraft than anybody else? 4th generation in China is 5th in the ROTW, 3rd is 4th, 2nd is 3rd and 1st is a combination of 1st and 2nd

I have this feeling that that is because China started off later than the West. So it might be second generation of the western aircraft when China started operating them it was the first generation to China because prior to that, there is no prior aircraft type.

So by the time China develope and operate their 2nd generation aircraft, the aircraft was actually same as the 3rd generation aircraft of the west... and so on and so for.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Re: New Generation Fighter

I have this feeling that that is because China started off later than the West. So it might be second generation of the western aircraft when China started operating them it was the first generation to China because prior to that, there is no prior aircraft type.

So by the time China develope and operate their 2nd generation aircraft, the aircraft was actually same as the 3rd generation aircraft of the west... and so on and so for.

Hmm I heard different. My version of the story is that China merged the second and third generations. In China they consider the J-6 to be an "early" 2nd generation jet and the F-4 and MIG-23, third generation jets, to be "late" second generation jets.

 

[tphuang]

Re: New Generation Fighter

The tech gap between 4th generation fighters and 3rd generation fighters is the largest among all fighters since WW2, probably comparable or even bigger than tech gap between 3rd generation fighters and 1st generation fighters due to stealth.

A J-20, lets say, with even J-11's engines and radars, are still way way better than J-11 in air-combat thanks to being stealth: internal military excerise between J-10 and J-11 show J-10 can beat J-11 easily (8:1), partially because J-10 can spot a J-11 ~15-20 km more than J-11 can spot a J-10 due to J-11's huge RCS, this gives J-10 a critical advantage such that they can make their plan to trap the J-11s.

And now replace J-10 with a stealth fighter and you can imagine the outcome.

Needless to say J-20's radar is highly likely being ready in time, the only part which lag behind is engine.

So when J-20 become ready (besides the engine part), there is no point to waste any resources on the last generation fighters, they will enter production with the downgraded engines, and when the more capable engines become ready, they will introduced them into their later batch of J-20s, just like the case of how Soviet handles their MiG-23 production.

Just during one most recent TV interview, a professor and major general of PLA's national defense university, openly said the priority for Chinese 4th generation fighters are (from high to low): 1, Stealth, 2, Networks, datalink and advanced radar and sensors/electrionics 3, Mechanical performance like supercruise and post-stall manuerves etcs.

Which just proved my points.

I think what you are stating are commonly accepted views. If Chinese 4th gen fighter don't have stealth, advanced avionics and power of its generation, then there is really no point building it.

As for China building only new generation and nothing else, that's like the worst idea ever. They will have plenty of updated versions of flankers and J-10s by then that will be far cheaper and more familiar to operate. And there is also the 4th gen design by SAC which may or may not get orders. Either way, the naval air force will continue to need naval flankers for strike purpose and as carrier fighters. Upgraded J-10 will be cheap and mass produced and more capable than most fighters in surrounding area. It would also make for a good hi-lo mix with 4th gen plane.

I'd be happy if they don't have J-7s by then. And if they don't have any J-8s in the air force by then, I'd be jumping up and down, but I doubt that's going to happen.

 

[dingyibvs]

Re: New Generation Fighter

Hmm I heard different. My version of the story is that China merged the second and third generations. In China they consider the J-6 to be an "early" 2nd generation jet and the F-4 and MIG-23, third generation jets, to be "late" second generation jets.

That's correct. Generation counting started with jet fighters, and China indeed had 1st generation aircrafts with the likes of J-2 and J-5. I prefer the Chinese way of counting, as the MiG-21 and the MiG-23 really shouldn't be different generations, but they're classified as such.

 

[70092]

Re: New Generation Fighter

As for China building only new generation and nothing else, that's like the worst idea ever. They will have plenty of updated versions of flankers and J-10s by then that will be far cheaper and more familiar to operate.

The problem is, it is not far cheaper than a J-20 with the same electrons/engines, for instance, the J-11's flyaway cost, is around 300 million yuan, whilst the J-20's cost, with full configuration should be around 600-700 million yuan, considering the likely exchange rate between the two fighters in a air-combat scenario, in terms of cost-efficiency, J-11 is far far worse than J-20, even with downgraded engines.

And there is also the 4th gen design by SAC which may or may not get orders. Either way, the naval air force will continue to need naval flankers for strike purpose and as carrier fighters.

Naval only need 30-50 Su-33/J-15s and the problem with SAC/601 is they cannot deliver anything new and all they can do is copying existing designs and make minor modifications.

In a competitive market, the craps like SAC should have bankrupted a long time ago, they have lost every single open fighter research deal to other air industry groups in China since 1980s, the only reason that they can still get orders is because the high-ups in Chinese NASA has lots SAC's fans and ex-employee considering this company's long history.

Upgraded J-10 will be cheap and mass produced and more capable than most fighters in surrounding area. It would also make for a good hi-lo mix with 4th gen plane.

Again, J-10 isnt cheap, but yes, it is good for the purpose of maintaining the size of airforce, which itself is an improtant aspect of strength.

And if they don't have any J-8s in the air force by then, I'd be jumping up and down, but I doubt that's going to happen.

J-8 is a crap fighter, and the latest model of J-8 get beaten in air-combat even by fighter-bomber FBC-1, thats why nowadays Navy use FBC-1, a fighter-bomber, for their intercept missions, instead of the use the supposed interceptor called J-8.

And J-8 is highly overpriced piece of crap, the fighter itself cost ~2/3 of a brand new J-10, and J-10 can eat it for lunch considering even Su-27/J-11 can beat the crap out of it easily.

The only reason the PLAAF still order this piece of overpriced crap is to keep SAC alife.

 

[Deino]

Re: New Generation Fighter

...

In a competitive market, the craps like SAC should have bankrupted a long time ago, they have lost every single open fighter research deal to other air industry groups in China since 1980s, the only reason that they can still get orders is because the high-ups in Chinese NASA has lots SAC's funs and ex-employer considering this company's long history.

...

Hmm ... thanks for that explanation - one I nearly expected in line of all the success CAC gained during the last decades ... and in mind of really nothing new indigenious from SAC - that sounds quite similar to the situation around Mikoyan in the SU.

Deino

 

[latenlazy]

Re: New Generation Fighter

The problem is, it is not far cheaper than a J-20 with the same electrons/engines, for instance, the J-11's flyaway cost, is around 300 million yuan, whilst the J-20's cost, with full configuration should be around 600-700 million yuan, considering the likely exchange rate between the two fighters in a air-combat scenario, in terms of cost-efficiency, J-11 is far far worse than J-20, even with downgraded engines.

Cost effective or not it still doesn't resolve the decade+ procurement gap the PLAAF will experience if they solely rely on designing and implementing 5th generation designs. Something will need to be a mainstay while those designs are phased in and an adequate amount of training and fighter force is achieved, which is why the J-11 will still be a practical requirement.

Naval only need 30-50 Su-33/J-15s and the problem with SAC/601 is they cannot deliver anything new and all they can do is copying existing designs and make minor modifications.

The Navy is set to expand its fighter requirements as China's naval interests broaden, especially if they start operating air craft carriers. Again, designing and implementing a 5th generation naval design would create a fighter gap that needs to be covered cheaply and in a timely manner. I see nothing wrong with using modified J-11s for one more generation before making a switch. After all, China still has little experience with naval fighters and will need time to develop better materials and engines for naval conditions.

In a competitive market, the craps like SAC should have bankrupted a long time ago, they have lost every single open fighter research deal to other air industry groups in China since 1980s, the only reason that they can still get orders is because the high-ups in Chinese NASA has lots SAC's fans and ex-employee considering this company's long history.

However badly SAC has been in innovating new designs, it does provide a very basic need for the PLAAF right now, since Chengdu doesn't have a heavy fighter design, and the window for Chengdu to introduce one at a reasonable time frame for a temporary mainstay that has already passed. In fact you could argue that the J-XX is Chengdu's heavy fighter design, but as we can see the implementation of a design from conception to IOC is a long process that would be impractical in keeping the fighting force effective.