Just read Collin Koh and Melissa Chen, and you will understand where he comes from. Forgive me about the generalisation, but Singapore’s very survival depends on security provided by the Anglos (and now the good old USA).
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
When people discuss “what if” assumptions based on hard-to-quantify indicators like "culture" and "values," you know they're not really discussing the issue.
The average netizen might mock ROCA's poorly trained and poorly equipped "strawberry soldiers," and might assume the outer island garrisons would crumble at the first blow, but they would never believe, based on any "value judgment," that ROCA on the main island would offer no resistance.
Maintain the quality of the discussion and focus on hard metrics, rather than engaging in Epoch Times-style wishful thinking and curses of “Today Zhang Youxia rebels, tomorrow Xi is seriously ill. "
The average netizen might mock ROCA's poorly trained and poorly equipped "strawberry soldiers," and might assume the outer island garrisons would crumble at the first blow, but they would never believe, based on any "value judgment," that ROCA on the main island would offer no resistance.
Maintain the quality of the discussion and focus on hard metrics, rather than engaging in Epoch Times-style wishful thinking and curses of “Today Zhang Youxia rebels, tomorrow Xi is seriously ill. "
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You just have to wait till the leaded gasoline finally catches up with the elite boomers currently in charge. Younger generation have been severely SeeSeePee pilled by both lack of opportunities and social media influencers like Ishowspeed and Hasan. I’d say there will be struggle sessions with dunce hats in a decade’s time.
It is actually correct that the PLA's "primary" mission is keeping the CCP in power. But it's not contradictory with the fact that the PLA is a primarily external force or that the PLA will partake in foreign conquest missions, which is the wrong conclusion that some have. Look no further than the PRC"s own national security law:
中国人民解放军由现役部队和预备役部队组成，在新时代的使命任务是为巩固中国共产党领导和社会主义制度，为捍卫国家主权、统一、领土完整，为维护国家海外利益，为促进世界和平与发展，提供战略支撑。
The People’s Liberation Army of China is composed of active-duty forces and reserve forces. In the new era, its missions and tasks are to provide strategic support for consolidating the leadership of the Communist Party of China and the socialist system, for safeguarding national sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, for protecting China’s overseas interests, and for promoting world peace and development.
The ordering of the objectives absolutely matters here.
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If it can’t safeguard sovereignty and national security then the CPC’s leadership can’t be consolidated. It isn’t really so much ordered objectives as equally important objectives.
Of course. But then the debate goes "well how much of that 'safeguarding sovereignty' will come at the risk of leadership consolidation" (ie the Taiwan war)
Oh look, Papa's coming to the rescue... with two B-52s!
It's kinda impressive that this happened so soon after the Sino Russian exercise, even though they likely anticipated it.
Also, the PLA's force posture in Dongbei towards the Sea of Japan seems somewhat weak, even if/when Russia opens up the airspace to allow PLAAF activity there. I'd imagine there are still quite a few political hurdles to overcome before we see large scale expansions in Dongbei.
For reference - There are only about three PLAAF bases which directly faces the Sea of Japan at the eastern sector of Dongbei, with two of the closest ones (Yanji and Mudanjiang) only fielding J-10s at best and not featuring any hardened aircraft shelters. The one which is recently expanded + upgraded and fielding J-16s (Qiqihar) are about 1000 kilometers deeper inland.
The PLA really does need to significantly buff up its presence and strength in the eastern sector of China's Dongbei. That is, China couldn't rely/depend on Russia and North Korea for guarding and defending the Dongbei's eastern frontier - The former's air force doesn't exactly has brilliant performances in Ukraine over the past 3+ years, whereas the latter's air force is basically a pile of Cold War relics.
Enemy airborne and seaborne forces could easily launch standoff missile attacks over the Sea of Japan with impunity against key targets in Dongbei through the North Korean and Russian airspaces - And the PLAAF must be able to counter such threats by having consistent presence over the Sea of Japan.
It'd be great if China and Russia can work together towards establishing a NORAD-equivalent that covers the eastern sector of the Chinese Dongbei and the Russian Far East districts, alongside aerial corridors where PLA warplanes can easily traverse between the Dongbei and the Sea of Japan.
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