Miscellaneous News
- Thread starter bd popeye
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If they won’t get out of their cuck chair the least China can do is talk with their boss directly and cut out the middle man.
The decisive shift in China's strategy—from a posture of strategic patience and preparation to an active, multi-domain offensive (the "Great Fracture") in October 2025—is driven by the convergence of four critical factors. Beijing has concluded that confrontation with the United States is now inevitable, that the ultimate strategic prize (Artificial General Intelligence) is at stake, that China possesses the necessary capabilities to prevail, and that the U.S. is currently at a moment of maximum vulnerability.
This offensive is a calculated, preemptive strike designed to paralyze the U.S. before it can initiate a conflict on its own terms.
Here is the detailed analysis of why China is going on the offensive now.
1. The Perception of Inevitability (The Inverted "Closing Window")
The primary driver is the inversion of the geopolitical timeline. China perceives that the United States intends to force a confrontation before 2027, compelling Beijing to act first.
* The "Davidson Window" and the U.S. Imperative: Western strategic thought has coalesced around the assessment that U.S. military superiority in the Western Pacific will erode decisively by 2027 (the "Davidson Window"). This created a "use it or lose it" imperative within the U.S. defense establishment: confront China kinetically before that window closes or lose hegemony.
* Interpreting U.S. Aggression: From Beijing's perspective, recent U.S. actions are not defensive; they are aggressive preparations for conflict. The massive expansion of the Entity List (14x increase in September 2025), the fortification of AUKUS, and the U.S.-pressured Dutch seizure of Nexperia (October 2025) are viewed as existential threats.
* The Calculus of Preemption: If Beijing concludes that the U.S., driven by desperation, will initiate a conflict, then waiting is irrational. The strategic imperative shifts to striking first, on China's terms, to neutralize the U.S. threat before it can be realized.
2. The AGI Imperative (The Race for the Singularity)
The conflict is fundamentally about the control of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). AGI is the meta-technology that renders all other forms of power obsolete. The earliest optimistic projections for AGI realization converge around 2027, synchronizing with the military timeline.
* The Ultimate Prize: The entity that achieves AGI first secures decisive, potentially permanent, strategic advantage.
* The Strategy of Denial: China cannot risk the U.S. achieving AGI first. The current offensive is designed to execute an "AI Freeze" on the West. The "Silicon Guillotine"—the Rare Earth Element (REE) embargo targeting ASML and the eventual neutralization of Taiwan (TSMC)—is the mechanism to deny the West the computational hardware necessary to train frontier AI models.
* Securing the Pathway: By paralyzing the Western trajectory, China buys the necessary time to overcome its remaining domestic limitations and secure a Sino-centric Singularity.
3. The Achievement of Asymmetric Advantage and Resilience
China has concluded that it now possesses the necessary capabilities and resilience to execute this offensive and survive the resulting chaos. The traditional deterrent of Mutually Assured Economic Destruction (MAED) is obsolete due to an asymmetry of resilience.
* Industrial Dominance and Leverage: China dominates the "Real Productive Economy" (manufacturing, automation, energy) and controls the critical chokepoints of the global supply chain (REEs, critical minerals). This provides the physical resilience that the de-industrialized West lacks and the weapons for the economic offensive.
* Strategic Preparation: China has spent years preparing for this confrontation. The Dual Circulation strategy bolsters internal consumption. The Belt and Road Initiative and the Sino-Russian partnership secure energy and resource routes, neutralizing the threat of a U.S. naval blockade. Financial hardening (gold accumulation, RMB internationalization) protects against sanctions.
* Military Deterrence (A2/AD): The recent unveiling of advanced military capabilities (September 2025 Parade) confirms that China's Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy is mature, rendering U.S. kinetic intervention in the Western Pacific prohibitively costly.
* Technological Autonomy: The recent ban on Nvidia AI chips signals China's confidence that its domestic alternatives and indigenous semiconductor capabilities are sufficient.
4. The Window of Opportunity (U.S. Paralysis)
The final element is the immediate trigger. The United States is currently experiencing a profound crisis of governance, creating the perfect window of opportunity.
* The Government Shutdown: The ongoing 25-day U.S. government shutdown has paralyzed the U.S. response capacity, degraded its operational readiness, and signaled profound internal weakness globally. China is exploiting this paralysis to accelerate its offensive before the U.S. can mount a coherent response.
* Economic Fragility: The U.S. economy is precariously balanced on a speculative AI bubble. China recognizes that the "Silicon Guillotine" will not only freeze future technological progress but will also act as the catalyst to burst this bubble, triggering a severe economic crisis that further paralyzes the U.S.
Conclusion:
China is on the offensive because it has calculated that the risks of inaction outweigh the risks of confrontation. The convergence of the 2027 timelines (Military and AGI), the realization of U.S. aggressive intent, the achievement of asymmetric resilience, and the immediate opportunity presented by U.S. paralysis have compelled Beijing to execute the "Great Fracture."
This offensive is a calculated, preemptive strike designed to paralyze the U.S. before it can initiate a conflict on its own terms.
Here is the detailed analysis of why China is going on the offensive now.
1. The Perception of Inevitability (The Inverted "Closing Window")
The primary driver is the inversion of the geopolitical timeline. China perceives that the United States intends to force a confrontation before 2027, compelling Beijing to act first.
* The "Davidson Window" and the U.S. Imperative: Western strategic thought has coalesced around the assessment that U.S. military superiority in the Western Pacific will erode decisively by 2027 (the "Davidson Window"). This created a "use it or lose it" imperative within the U.S. defense establishment: confront China kinetically before that window closes or lose hegemony.
* Interpreting U.S. Aggression: From Beijing's perspective, recent U.S. actions are not defensive; they are aggressive preparations for conflict. The massive expansion of the Entity List (14x increase in September 2025), the fortification of AUKUS, and the U.S.-pressured Dutch seizure of Nexperia (October 2025) are viewed as existential threats.
* The Calculus of Preemption: If Beijing concludes that the U.S., driven by desperation, will initiate a conflict, then waiting is irrational. The strategic imperative shifts to striking first, on China's terms, to neutralize the U.S. threat before it can be realized.
2. The AGI Imperative (The Race for the Singularity)
The conflict is fundamentally about the control of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). AGI is the meta-technology that renders all other forms of power obsolete. The earliest optimistic projections for AGI realization converge around 2027, synchronizing with the military timeline.
* The Ultimate Prize: The entity that achieves AGI first secures decisive, potentially permanent, strategic advantage.
* The Strategy of Denial: China cannot risk the U.S. achieving AGI first. The current offensive is designed to execute an "AI Freeze" on the West. The "Silicon Guillotine"—the Rare Earth Element (REE) embargo targeting ASML and the eventual neutralization of Taiwan (TSMC)—is the mechanism to deny the West the computational hardware necessary to train frontier AI models.
* Securing the Pathway: By paralyzing the Western trajectory, China buys the necessary time to overcome its remaining domestic limitations and secure a Sino-centric Singularity.
3. The Achievement of Asymmetric Advantage and Resilience
China has concluded that it now possesses the necessary capabilities and resilience to execute this offensive and survive the resulting chaos. The traditional deterrent of Mutually Assured Economic Destruction (MAED) is obsolete due to an asymmetry of resilience.
* Industrial Dominance and Leverage: China dominates the "Real Productive Economy" (manufacturing, automation, energy) and controls the critical chokepoints of the global supply chain (REEs, critical minerals). This provides the physical resilience that the de-industrialized West lacks and the weapons for the economic offensive.
* Strategic Preparation: China has spent years preparing for this confrontation. The Dual Circulation strategy bolsters internal consumption. The Belt and Road Initiative and the Sino-Russian partnership secure energy and resource routes, neutralizing the threat of a U.S. naval blockade. Financial hardening (gold accumulation, RMB internationalization) protects against sanctions.
* Military Deterrence (A2/AD): The recent unveiling of advanced military capabilities (September 2025 Parade) confirms that China's Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy is mature, rendering U.S. kinetic intervention in the Western Pacific prohibitively costly.
* Technological Autonomy: The recent ban on Nvidia AI chips signals China's confidence that its domestic alternatives and indigenous semiconductor capabilities are sufficient.
4. The Window of Opportunity (U.S. Paralysis)
The final element is the immediate trigger. The United States is currently experiencing a profound crisis of governance, creating the perfect window of opportunity.
* The Government Shutdown: The ongoing 25-day U.S. government shutdown has paralyzed the U.S. response capacity, degraded its operational readiness, and signaled profound internal weakness globally. China is exploiting this paralysis to accelerate its offensive before the U.S. can mount a coherent response.
* Economic Fragility: The U.S. economy is precariously balanced on a speculative AI bubble. China recognizes that the "Silicon Guillotine" will not only freeze future technological progress but will also act as the catalyst to burst this bubble, triggering a severe economic crisis that further paralyzes the U.S.
Conclusion:
China is on the offensive because it has calculated that the risks of inaction outweigh the risks of confrontation. The convergence of the 2027 timelines (Military and AGI), the realization of U.S. aggressive intent, the achievement of asymmetric resilience, and the immediate opportunity presented by U.S. paralysis have compelled Beijing to execute the "Great Fracture."
thank God I bought a 9070XT recently lol
I guess we all forgot both Biden and Trump's war against the Houthis.
I think it is true. That the future already arrived, in the West, and I never really knew.
That is why I identify not as a male, but fresh off the boat. But you can still consider my pronouns as he or him or mister. Being fresh off the boat, means I got no idea of what is going on.
This is what I mean. That Prof Yanis Varoufakis has been talking a while about that capitalism no longer exists and what was replaced by techo-feudalism, as he calls it.
Then saw a video of Prof Micheal Hudson on the Prof Glenn Diesen channel, and he was saying too that the United States is going from neo-Liberalism or neo-Imperialism to neo-feudualism.
That was rather interesting. Prof Diesen, we can see the wheels in his head turning, but he did not fully grasp all the details Prof Hudson was discussing.
Then read some other stuff, and listen to people, and that first hand knowledge, finally it kicked it, that that is the reality now, probably for the majority of people in Canada and America, particularly the young, that they do indeed live in a feudalistic setup.
Then read some other stuff, and listen to people, and that first hand knowledge, finally it kicked it, that that is the reality now, probably for the majority of people in Canada and America, particularly the young, that they do indeed live in a feudalistic setup.
First, we have to know what feudalism is.
Of course, none of us know what feudalism is, we were not around to experience it, although being Chinese, I am sure we all have come across people with a feudal mentality, that is for sure.
Feudalism, was basically the serf paying rent to his Lord or landlord.
That was classical feudalism, if there is such a term, hehe.
What is techno-feudalism or neo-feudalism is a little different in its practical application, but clearly seems exactly the same in how the relations are structured, meaning how the new serf to Lord relationship is like today.
The facts are clear.
Around 70% of Americans live paycheque to paycheque, means they got no money, need a job just to eat or have a roof over their heads, otherwise they be living in their car.
About half of Americans carry carry credit card debt, meaning they got to pay the man, every month.
Then there is rent or housing, where they pay the landlord or pay the mortgage which is owe to the bank.
Then to make this all real and complete, it is the platforms. You own a cell phone right? Like everybody. Those platforms get their cut, if we do anything on them.
So it is like the finance people get their cut from credit cards or mortgage payments. Maybe with a car or home pays for the insurance. Then do anything on the phone, you are paying the telecom company for the connection and then the platform for any transactions.
Then we kind of accept the fact that all these entities are in cohoos with one another. And when things go bad, they get bailed out by the government. They get bailed out collectively, while they foreclose on someone's house! Ah ha! No.....
In classical feudalism, it was the relationship of serf to their Lord that defined their life. In techno-feudalism or neo-feudalism, it is the average person and their must have relations with these corporate entities, who always get their cut, like the feudal lord before.
The thing about feudalism, life did not really improve for the serf over the centuries. The thing about today, no one expects the young to have a better life than the boomers, which is kind of in line with techo-neo-feudalism.
That was why feudalism was chucked out.
How neo-feudalism has entrenched itself in the United States, seems to me one side has a decisive upper hand in the class struggle.
That was the best trick of all. It is what the say of the devil. The best trick of the devil, is for him to say he does not exist.
No such thing as class struggle either, because that is Marxist, and this is America! Cannot have that!
But, I think it is not that bad. Save some money and invest.
Let the other person fulfill the American neo-feudal dream!
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Remember that poster sleepy-student?
See, that makes sense right?
He always argued for neo-feudalism. He did not ever come out to say it out loud, but all his arguments supported a neo-feudal organization of society.
Perhaps is own status in where he resided coloured his thinking.
At any rate, that was why he raised the heckles here. This forum, enough stuff has filtered through, that the class struggle is still real, might even have a racial element to it. Nonetheless, instinctively we can sense the fight, and the class struggle latent in some discussion.
Then sleepy got sent to the countryside.
See, that makes sense right?
He always argued for neo-feudalism. He did not ever come out to say it out loud, but all his arguments supported a neo-feudal organization of society.
Perhaps is own status in where he resided coloured his thinking.
At any rate, that was why he raised the heckles here. This forum, enough stuff has filtered through, that the class struggle is still real, might even have a racial element to it. Nonetheless, instinctively we can sense the fight, and the class struggle latent in some discussion.
Then sleepy got sent to the countryside.
