One word. Transshipment. If China decides it is in China's best interest to restrict RE magnets from reaching the US, it sure as shit is not about to let it reach the US through third nations, which India, EU nations, and probably others have already been guilty of doing earlier in the year.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
can anyone give me a qrd on the recent trade war stuff?
Thoroughly debunked. People's Daily reflects decisions already made by central government, it doesn't seek to influence government decision making like in the West.
What I don't understand is why has there not been a major stimulus in China for tech?
All of these are addressed if there's a big tech stimulus that is undertaken.
Will absorb talent, lead to wage growth, lead to greater demand stimulus, and result in higher rate of tech breakthroughs.
What explains this reticence though?
The leadership is acting like fiscal conservative Germans, however as Germans will themselves tell you, too much fiscal conservativeness is suboptimal. Fiat Money is not something real, so personal finance advice being applied to fiat money at a country level seems puzzling.
- China has surplus tech talent, some of which is unable to find jobs, or is under/suboptimally employed.
- The wage growth is limited and there's need to expand that.
- There's major tech containment going on, and China needs urgent breakthroughs in dozens of technologies (EUV, Semi Equipment, chips, GPUs, materials, space launch reusability, megaconstellations etc. etc.)
- Major deflation as a problem, need for inflation.
All of these are addressed if there's a big tech stimulus that is undertaken.
Will absorb talent, lead to wage growth, lead to greater demand stimulus, and result in higher rate of tech breakthroughs.
What explains this reticence though?
The leadership is acting like fiscal conservative Germans, however as Germans will themselves tell you, too much fiscal conservativeness is suboptimal. Fiat Money is not something real, so personal finance advice being applied to fiat money at a country level seems puzzling.
I don't understand, who is this guy and what makes what he says important?
This guy's a lawyer in Singapore. His posts blatantly state that US has the upper hand in any trade war with China and china has a weaker hand and this should concede. That chinas retaliation is mostly bluster.
He's claim to fame is that he predicted China would lift zero COVID between Oct 2022 to march 2023! And he made that prediction in September 2022!! Lol
He basically wrote an article about how china can't win in a trade war with the US.
Btw his predictions in that article aged like vinegar.
So why is what he says important?
i don't know if you follow this forum or not. China basically launched three mega investment funds for semiconductor development in past few years. you have no idea how much money government spending on Lithography development.
in March this year, China launched a government-backed fund that will mobilize 1 Trillion yuan from social capital to support technology startups.
1. there are at least 3 known EUV related projects going on.. so without financial support how can they even run such a project ?
2. NAURA/AMEC/ACM and other state owned , private Chinese SME firms spend record amount on R&D in 2024 and 1H,2025.
3. Three state owned Rockets currently have reusability projects. LM8/LM12 and heavy LM10.. i don't even need to write the name of private firms. Almost all major private space firms have reusable rockets under development. two rockets successfully landed as well. yesterday i did post on Space thread. Space Pioneer raised 2.5 Billion RMB.
now tell me, where the money come from ??
companies also spending huge money on CPU/GPU..
just one company, Moore Thread a prominent GPU developer had record earning in 2024 and company has been blacklist by the USA for years. there are more firms. i can't post all names.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
all semiconductor tools outside Litho have successfully developed and currently under evaluation and testing.. YMTC using all domestically made tools. CXMT too running mostly with local tools.. so your ''urgent breakthrough'' info is not accurate.
you see China with the eyes of America. don't do this. we have a completely different system.
Last edited:
That is a plan to deploy that some over many years. And 1 trillion yuan, is what 142 billion usd over I believe many many years. I actually think China can do a LOT more.
I am not arguing there's no financial support. I am saying it is insufficient specially when the government can spend a LOT more. How much is the government spending on all of these projects? The combined R&D budget of the economy is just around 500 billion usd.
Strategically, I would say the government should spend 200 billion usd more every year, and do it in discrete (without talking about it). It is very easily doable, and would generate many jobs and have a good effect.
1. We have no concrete idea where Chinese EUV is currently. Granted, it is a very tightly controlled project, but this means that apart from some whispers, we don't know where the project really is. And the whispers in China tech are not as reliable as China military, where China military whisperers have proven track record over decades. Case in point, half of this forum was expecting 5nm chip in Huawei phones last year, but that was not the case.
2. The money spent by private Chinese SME firms on R&D is far less than what western companies spend even today. And it is the Chinese companies that need to catch up. Granted money probably stretches further in China, but I am talking about stimulus kind of somes. Maybe I am just more ambitious.
2(a). Let's talk about EDA. Chinese firms are still heavily reliant on Synopsys, and others. Why is that? Despite getting a shock in 2018 with EDA controls on Huawei, the US was still able to play the EDA card this April again. I would have liked if they spent hundreds of billions just on EDA. In fact, most of the talent in these EDA firms is also Chinese. EDA will be solved in literally few years, if there is a huge stimulus.
3. Reusability is in fact the exact example that illustrates this. That China is running a decade behind SpaceX should be alarming. It is only now that these companies are getting serious money, but even this is not that high. Government should probably spend 10s of billions every year to first gain advantage. And space was one sector where China was gaining and getting on par with US, then SpaceX just pulled through. Government needs to fund risky, moonshot projects like SpaceX. Hundreds of them.
4. Look at aircrafts now. C919 has been missing its delivery targets for 3-4 years now. I am just saying to accelerate. Talent is present, you need money now. Accelerate.
How is that believable when China is still importing upto 50% of the equipment that these western firms supply.
Perhaps I am too ambitious, but I think China is in a position to, and should be spending 200 billion usd of additional funding (every year) for the next 10 years. All of the challenges will then gradually dissipate.
Last edited:
this is with current exchange rates and we all know what is the real value of Yuan ..
1 Trillion Yuan is a lot money in mainland that's coz of material cost in China. this is for Ai related development only.
for semiconductor, in 2014 and 2019 central government released two big investment funds. now in 2025 again, they released 300 billion RMB new funding for semiconductor. this is apart from local government funding, which they regularly do for SME firms.. please read on semiconductor thread.
all SME tool makers regularly generate Millions of Yuan hard cash from local government.
basically government throwing money in semiconductor field.
i m not talking about progress.. research itself required hard cash. they are doing research it means they are getting enough money. and we have concrete evidence with Patents and research papers.. all top Chinese institutes actively working in Lithography. for example, CIOMP is the top chinese institute with enough financial backing. and they are front runner in EUV project.
indeed we don't have accurate information about the progress. but we all know pretty well which institutes are working on this project.
Kirin 9030 just announced.. 10 to 12 months late is not a big deal in semi field.
post number - 10,425 on semi thread.. you can check about Kirin9030
Software really has no issue.
both CXMT and YMTC switched on domestic EDA.. this is last month news.
Huawei has its own FinFet EDA since 2022. most likely SMIC using this already
so you actually think, hundreds of billions require just for EDA ?? bro don't see China with the eyes of America. you guys have every inefficient spending system. you know pretty well that how expensive America is.. so Billions of Yuan are enough money in mainland.
yes. state owned Space Sector did well. but private sector just getting serious money. we have 10-15 private companies in this sector and all are getting funding. if we combine than it is in billions. in last 2 months these two companies below raised some money. and every individual company building their own production base. its getting crowded.
Space Pioneer raised 2.5 Billion RMB
Galactic Energy secures 2.4 Billion RMB
i did reply to you on this topic in semiconductor thread as well.
yes its true. China import record tools and equipment from foreign companies in 2023-24 but you don't see the performance of domestic firms. all Chinese semi tool makers had record revenue in 2024 and they are going to beat their 2024 revenue mark in 2025 again. just check the NAURA/AMEC/ACM first half 2025 earning.
NAURA/AMEC entered in top 10 SEM equipment manufacturers last year.. first time Chinese firms broke this barrier. it was used to be excusive club for western/Japanese firms.
record import from western firms + record sales of local Semi equipment firms.
right now, Chinese tools makers cannot fulfil the demand. as record number of fabs currently under construction. so they have to stockpile enough tools.
you are right in this regards, China need to spend more. we have 9 percent jump in research and development budget last year reaching 3.7 Trillion Yuan. this money other than the big investment funds government has created. and if you add investment funds too than total spending far exceed this 3.7 trillion figure.
Last edited: