They really should install dashcam next time. What a sight to capture
China Flanker Thread III (land based, exclude J-15)
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
They have gun cam footage.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
It’s kinda funny watching the mental aerobics at play here to do anything but face the undeniable fact that there is an obvious massive training issue if two F22 pilots somehow managed to get themselves locked by the same J16, at the same time. The qualities of both aircraft types are well known, and on paper, the J16 would have done well to lock one Raptor. To get two is as much down to the F22 pilots messing up as it is about the J16s outdoing themselves.
I think some people really need to check their assumptions, because the unshakable underlying assumption is that USAF pilot training is top notch. But that’s not something you can take to the bank these days. Especially in the case of the F22, a disconnected, aging bird with a very modest and dwindling fleet size that is also the pride of the UASF and thus burdened with a disproportionately high load in terms of both peacetime flag waving display flights as well as top-end combat cover for actual combat operations or threat of force displays to cow opfor in simmering regions.
Aging fleet and irreplaceable planes easily lead to babying of planes in training. That’s just human nature. Heavy operational deployment demands also eat into available hours for training, just as how USN carrier pilots need to spend months building back up lost competency after returning to shore post combat deployments in past wars.
That’s an opportunity cost that western analysts and commentators never bring up about the west’s much vaunted real world combat experience. When all you are doing is fighting against hopelessly outmatched third world opponents, that combat experience is actually a net detriment to a combat pilots overall skill set. Especially in terms of near peer high intensity combat operations. Just like how sending soldiers in riot gear to crack protestor skulls doesn’t make your soldiers better in a near peer mechanised war.
It’s not only possible that US raptor pilots are loosing their edge, it’s practical inevitable for that to happen given the insurmountable issues they have with their aging and irreplaceable fleet and the overly heavy operational demands placed on the fleet that confers near zero skill honing opportunities.
I think some people really need to check their assumptions, because the unshakable underlying assumption is that USAF pilot training is top notch. But that’s not something you can take to the bank these days. Especially in the case of the F22, a disconnected, aging bird with a very modest and dwindling fleet size that is also the pride of the UASF and thus burdened with a disproportionately high load in terms of both peacetime flag waving display flights as well as top-end combat cover for actual combat operations or threat of force displays to cow opfor in simmering regions.
Aging fleet and irreplaceable planes easily lead to babying of planes in training. That’s just human nature. Heavy operational deployment demands also eat into available hours for training, just as how USN carrier pilots need to spend months building back up lost competency after returning to shore post combat deployments in past wars.
That’s an opportunity cost that western analysts and commentators never bring up about the west’s much vaunted real world combat experience. When all you are doing is fighting against hopelessly outmatched third world opponents, that combat experience is actually a net detriment to a combat pilots overall skill set. Especially in terms of near peer high intensity combat operations. Just like how sending soldiers in riot gear to crack protestor skulls doesn’t make your soldiers better in a near peer mechanised war.
It’s not only possible that US raptor pilots are loosing their edge, it’s practical inevitable for that to happen given the insurmountable issues they have with their aging and irreplaceable fleet and the overly heavy operational demands placed on the fleet that confers near zero skill honing opportunities.
It's not mental acrobatics... it's just putting this event (if it occurred as it did) in perspective.
First, we can all acknowledge that if the event did occur as described (2 J-16s against 2 F-22s, and where 1 of the J-16s managed to get themselves into a position for a lock for 2 of the opposing aircraft) is somewhat "significant" from a situational BFM point of view.
However, the extrapolation that can be made is limited by:
- we don't know if this event is reflective of the consistent pattern of PLA and US tacair encounters (i.e.: was this an exception where the J-16s got the upper hand, or is the running tally more like 50/50, or is it even usually more in the US favour)
- it is ultimately true that a large scale modern air war would occur at BVR ranges so this specific WVR encounter is far from reflective of how a more realistic wartime encounter would occur
- ultimately it was two Chinese aircraft; so it wasn't like a single J-16 against 2 F-22s; the J-16 driver in question did have support from his wingman
So sure, this is an encounter which is worth noting and tallying up for interest purposes, but beyond that I think it is logical and prudent to be cautious about what they take away from it.
Putting it another way, if this outcome of this encounter were reversed and if it were two J-20s against two F-15s, and the two J-20s got the worse end of the stick, I suspect people here would be singing a different tune as to how much can be extrapolated.
