PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[LanceD23]

The scenario was invented by an idiot. Guam bases would be pancaked by DF-26s on day one. China would heavily leverage its merchant fleet for transport such that US submarines will be completely out of the fight from running out of missiles/torpedoes too quickly.

If missiles coming from long distance how can China be sure it's US launched? Could be anyone. Attacking Guam in return maybe too rash.

Also what if they use oil tankers to assist bombers from Hawaii?

Merchants ship cannot transport heavy weaponries. Carrying light weapons to assault is kind of suicidal.

 

[CMP]

If missiles coming from long distance how can China be sure it's US launched? Could be anyone. Attacking Guam in return maybe too rash.

Also what if they use oil tankers to assist bombers from Hawaii?

Merchants ship cannot transport heavy weaponries. Carrying light weapons to assault is kind of suicidal.

There are only a VERY short list of possible candidates that would be shooting "stealthy anti-ship missiles" at China's carrier strike groups seeing as how the only producer is the US and the only users are the US and their closest puppets (pretty much only Japan and ROK might get involved, and Philippines hosting US forces but not directly fighting). And it just so happens that all of those candidates host US bases that would be struck by ballistic missiles anyways at the earliest sign of mobilization and war activities spotted by Chinese satellites. If your suggestion is that China would sit back and allow itself to be struck by hundreds of missiles without retaliating, then you're entertaining delusions.

B52s and B1Bs are easy for China to spot and shoot down and the US has very limited numbers of B2s which hold very limited payloads. Trying to wage an air war based out of Hawaii is not going to get very far given the very limited cadence for air operations, limited primarily by the small numbers of B2s.

The transport of heavy weapons to Taiwan are completely unnecessary and even pointless. All the destruction of military infrastructure and equipment on Taiwan will occur from Chinese missile superiority given the very short distance at play but also their air superiority over Taiwan's air space, and so merchant ships would only need to bring drones and special forces. The distance at play is so short that China only needs to use SRBMs to hit Taiwan, while longer range missiles are preserved for US bases, forces, and puppets.

 

[LanceD23]

It's clear, US is setting up traps waiting for China to move in.

So, instead of landing. China should wipe out all Taiwan military targets but not invade.

Chins should not send carrier group east of Taiwan because they would be open targets .
US could shoot at them from long distance.

Instead China could setup a trap in taiwan strait wait for US submarines to come in. Sinking submarines US cannot blame China. Getting killed in the dark.

If J36 in service, they could fly outside first island chain to assassinate oil tankers and bombers.

China should land and seize penghu but not Taiwan island. Too much risks

 

[GZDRefugee]

It's clear, US is setting up traps waiting for China to move in.

So, instead of landing. China should wipe out all Taiwan military targets but not invade.

Chins should not send carrier group east of Taiwan because they would be open targets .
US could shoot at them from long distance.

Instead China could setup a trap in taiwan strait wait for US submarines to come in. Sinking submarines US cannot blame China. Getting killed in the dark.

If J36 in service, they could fly outside first island chain to assassinate oil tankers and bombers.

China should land and seize penghu but not Taiwan island. Too much risks

If you search this thread, you will find that a "blockade by fires" was discussed many times before.

 

[LanceD23]

There are only a VERY short list of possible candidates that would be shooting "stealthy anti-ship missiles" at China's carrier strike groups seeing as how the only producer is the US and the only users are the US and their closest puppets (pretty much only Japan and ROK might get involved, and Philippines hosting US forces but not directly fighting). And it just so happens that all of those candidates host US bases that would be struck by ballistic missiles anyways at the earliest sign of mobilization and war activities spotted by Chinese satellites. If your suggestion is that China would sit back and allow itself to be struck by hundreds of missiles without retaliating, then you're entertaining delusions.

B52s and B1Bs are easy for China to spot and shoot down and the US has very limited numbers of B2s which hold very limited payloads. Trying to wage an air war based out of Hawaii is not going to get very far given the very limited cadence for air operations, limited primarily by the small numbers of B2s.

The transport of heavy weapons to Taiwan are completely unnecessary and even pointless. All the destruction of military infrastructure and equipment on Taiwan will occur from Chinese missile superiority given the very short distance at play but also their air superiority over Taiwan's air space, and so merchant ships would only need to bring drones and special forces. The distance at play is so short that China only needs to use SRBMs to hit Taiwan, while longer range missiles are preserved for US bases, forces, and puppets.

Identify the enemy who shoot at you has to be 100%. Based on logic deduction is no go.

Ship radar is no more than 400km. US bombers shooting at them 1000km away , I doubt China can identify them. And cant do anything to them at such distance.

Taiwan troops has tanks and heavy artillery. If PLA don't carry heavy weaponries it's hard to match them.

If PLA doesn't have enough fire powers and troop numbers they will get bogged down in taiwan island.

 

[latenlazy]

Identify the enemy who shoot at you has to be 100%. Based on logic deduction is no go.

Ship radar is no more than 400km. US bombers shooting at them 1000km away , I doubt China can identify them.

Taiwan troops has tanks and heavy artillery. If PLA don't carry heavy weaponries it's hard to match them.

The missiles and the shooters are identifiable by signals data and debris. If the US is in range to shoot at China China is in range to shoot at the US. If all the US does is take potshots from a distance it won’t be able to secure Taiwan’s airspace. If Taiwan loses control over its airspace none of its ground forces will matter. Taiwan can’t mass ground forces to resist any ground invasion if they’re under constant air surveillance with prompt strike capabilities.

 

[CMP]

Identify the enemy who shoot at you has to be 100%. Based on logic deduction is no go.

Ship radar is no more than 400km. US bombers shooting at them 1000km away , I doubt China can identify them.

Taiwan troops has tanks and heavy artillery. If PLA don't carry heavy weaponries it's hard to match them.

Chinese AWACs will be out and about, so the limitation will not be ship radar. US's 1000 km range stealthy anti-ship missiles are only subsonic, not supersonic or hypersonic. Much easier to shoot down. The US also does not have them in large numbers, cost is high, and production rate is low. The US will run out of these missiles within a week or two if they're seriously trying to stop China.

You clearly have not been watching the Ukraine war closely. Tanks and heavily artillery are very easily destroyed by drones. China only needs to get special forces and drones onto Taiwan. Meanwhile Chinese fighters and bombers will own Taiwan's skies.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Identify the enemy who shoot at you has to be 100%. Based on logic deduction is no go.

Ship radar is no more than 400km. US bombers shooting at them 1000km away , I doubt China can identify them. And cant do anything to them at such distance.

Taiwan troops has tanks and heavy artillery. If PLA don't carry heavy weaponries it's hard to match them.

If PLA doesn't have enough fire powers and troop numbers they will get bogged down in taiwan island.

US only has subsonic cruise missiles and they're not stealthy from top down.

 

[arthur2046]

US bombers shooting at them 1000km away , I doubt China can identify them. And cant do anything to them at such distance.

Warships are mobile. How can missiles fired from 1,000 kilometers away guide and track warships? Moreover, China can conduct patrol and surveillance with AWACs and satellites.

 

[LanceD23]

Chinese AWACs will be out and about, so the limitation will not be ship radar. US's 1000 km range stealthy anti-ship missiles are only subsonic, not supersonic or hypersonic. Much easier to shoot down. The US also does not have them in large numbers, cost is high, and production rate is low. The US will run out of these missiles within a week or two if they're seriously trying to stop China.

You clearly have not been watching the Ukraine war closely. Tanks and heavily artillery are very easily destroyed by drones. China only needs to get special forces and drones onto Taiwan. Meanwhile Chinese fighters and bombers will own Taiwan's skies.

US likes taiwan troops to follow Ukraine. Hiding and fighting within urban structure and hideouts like fortress. Or fighting around jungle areas.

China air superiority doesn't mean whole lot in urban warfares.

First month of war US planning to use bombers to hit and run from far distance.

US and it allies are not weak in drone tech. They could shoot down or jam chinese drones.