They need to enforce export ban against unfriendly countries so enterprising tech bros don’t take advantage of them for their military startup.Micro turbojets on display, some with price tags.
Chinese Engine Development
- Thread starter jackbh
- Start date
All I can say to the community at large is:
I usually don't like to use memes to convey things in mainline threads --- but that image truly captures the sentiment better than anything else I can write.
My god, since I started PLA watching in the mid 2000s, the amount of times I've seen people get burned (including myself in the early days) by being too optimistic about engines and not having a sufficiently high threshold to actually "verify" an engine is in active use and active production, really boggles my mind.
Nearly two decades now, I've been in this space, and I've seen people get over-optimistic on "XYZ aircraft now powered by domestic engines" (and then inevitably backtrack) based on rumours and/or one-off prototype pictures for:
- J-10A and WS-10
- J-10B and WS-10
- J-10C and WS-10
- JF-17 and WS-13
- Y-20 and WS-20
- J-11B and WS-10 (yes, there was a time when SAC land based Flankers were not safely assumed to always use WS-10s)
- J-15 and WS-10
- J-15T and WS-10
and of course,
- J-20/A/S and WS-15
- J-35/A and WS-19 (and to an extent, WS-13E, WS-21 in some respects)
Save yourselves the grief, and set some higher, verifiable metrics to avoid the awkwardness of having to "backtrack".
J-16 when they started production, and Y-20B production over the last year are good examples of aircraft that we can comfortably say are using domestic engines.
J-16 started using WS-10s from the outset and after 1-2 years of production they never deviated from WS-10, so after that period we could comfortably say they were all WS-10 powered
Y-20B started production about a year or so ago now as well, and being a dedicated new variant of Y-20 without having seen at all with D30s/WS-18, and only being seen WS-20s to this point, means we can probably say safely that it's using WS-20s as standard now.
Once we have something like that for J-20A and WS-15, then feel free to call it.
Until then, I strongly recommend people to take my advice on board.
Production of scale too. If they are used by hobby RC models or drones then the demand for them could potentially be huge.
At this point, I'd say that the safest (and most generally-applicable) rule would be to add another 10-20 years on top of the rumored/anticipated/expected year(s) of XX-engines to be deployed onboard in-service YY-aircrafts.
That means, among which:
1. 2030 - 2035 for WS-15 on the J-20A/AS (alongside J-36 and J-XDS as interim),
2. 2035 - 2040 for WS-19 on the J-35/A, and
3. 2045 - 2050 for ACE/VCE-based WS-XX on the J-36 and J-XDS.
Call it pessimistic or whatever, but it is how it is. Plus saves on dealing with whole lots of disappointments as well.
this is overacting bro.. you are still pissed that, WS-15 being little delayed.
when cute orca clearly said, Engine need polishing. he didn't say that, major issue or design flaw.
Actually my recommendation is to just don't have actual predictions to begin with.
Or rather, it's okay to have predictions if it is used to form a confidence interval/contingency possibilities for the future, but just don't be married to them.
That said, in terms of verifiable metrics, I was more talking about people prematurely writing about aircraft being actively in production with XYZ engine when evidence had yet to emerge to reach approximate threshold for it.
There is a method to the madness, but it just requires a bit of emotional discipline from people.
Stop enjoying PLA watching, and treat it instead like doing research for a never ending thesis instead, that way one can strap in for monotony and keep a clear head.
Nope, that's not overreacting and pissed.
That's just a serious degree of readjusting and recalibrating of my views and expectations on the Chinese aircraft engine industry, based on recent and ongoing developments.
you are a knowledgeable person regarding PLA.
if you don't believe on AECC and Liu Daxiang. so my explanation is pretty useless. when both parties cleared. there is no major issue in WS-15 engine design. so why this reaction.. cute orca words ''need Polishing''
WS-15 current problem is not 5 or 10 years problem. it is related with production. probably turbine yields and components quality review. Engine is not yet reliable to mass produce in hundreds.
this is very common problem in Turbofan development. and will be resolve soon.
The thing is that we never really know what is around the corner.
For example, back in 2008-2009 when the first batch of J-11Bs entered service with Al-31s, there was no guarantee that from the second batch of J-11Bs onwards that all new build SAC land based Flankers would be WS-10 powered.
Or how after J-10C, after finally being equipped with WS-10 in regular production in service in 2021, that WS-10s would equip all primary combat new build J-10Cs for the PLA, as well as for export customers (PAF), and J-10S etc. That was far from guaranteed, after a decade or more of "will they won't they" with installing WS-10s on production J-10s.
Or that Y-20B would enter production at seemingly decent pace with WS-20 production keeping up and not having to have Y-20Bs adopt D30s/WS-18s as an "interim powerplant" in any capacity at all.
... so sunnymaxi is sort of right -- your suggestion in your last post is somewhat overreacting.
The best response is to accept that we never know what's around the corner, and to be at peace with it.
Predictions should only be made to try to model what future development/procurement patterns may look like, but they should not be viewed as an aspiration or a hope or a goal.
We can gather information the best we can based on rumours and indicators, but ultimately the truth is if the goal is "when will XYZ engine be installed on active production/service aircraft" that is something which can just happen out of nowhere, or it can not happen for ages -- the emotional response to both of those outcomes should be the same.