The Dalai Lama’s been saying for years that he would have a huge, important announcement on his 90th birthday. Turns out this announcement was just a nothingburger, restating his position again. He’s already released multiple documents stating that his advisors would select their candidate for the next Dalai Lama.
I’m quite optimistic about Tibet. Most likely the Dalai Lama's advisors will pick an ethnic Tibetan in Arunachal Pradesh. It may be Tawang. They won’t choose reincarnation into an adult because that would be ridiculous (just imagine the questions about what happened to the adult’s original soul).
Thus there will be two Dalai Lama candidates, a Chinese candidate and an Indian candidate. Initially there will be a huge Western media uproar supporting the Indian candidate and attacking China. However, this artificial controversy will lack any foundation. You can only write so many stories supporting an Indian baby before people lose interest, as the baby cannot do anything other than continuing to be a baby.
Westerners have already noted that there will be ~2 decades before the next Dalai Lama comes of age. During that time, China will continue successfully integrating Tibet.
I also expect the Chinese candidate to be much more legitimate. He will be enthroned in the Potala Palace, accompanied by the Panchen Lama - with all the ceremonies, traditions, clothing, and authentic artifacts of the Dalai Lama. Meanwhile the Indian candidate will be an Indian citizen who has never set foot in non-Indian Tibet. He may also have some Indian habits that appear strange to Tibetans.
India's reputation has also declined. Tibetans use the Internet like everybody else. Like other East Asians today, they may feel somewhat superior to India or believe that India is dirty. This may diminish the credibility of the Indian candidate.
The one factor which I fear, and which has been completely ignored, is the possibility of a defection. In fact, this has already happened once, with the Karmapa Lama. This is a very understated and dangerous possibility. However, I think this is unlikely. The Panchen Lama has not defected. Additionally, life and human rights in Tibet have substantially improved from say the ‘80s or ‘90s. Thus I believe that a Tibetan spiritual figure would find China credible and remain patriotic.