If the United States were to become entangled in a war in Iran much like the Soviet Union in Afghanistan or the U.S. itself in Iraq it would likely play to China’s advantage. Trillions of dollars would be drained into a futile conflict rather than invested in artificial intelligence or infrastructure. It could mark the beginning of America's decline.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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That situation preceded President Trump, by at least a decade in my estimation.
Politically, they hated Clinton, then the other side hated dubya Bush.
The hate was that strong back then too. Nothing new here.
Economically, the plebs have been seeing their lot decline since the 1970's, as their wages stagnant since then if I remember the stuff correctly.
Trump being president is not the cause of America being balkanized and humilliated. How the rich and poor live in America more or less balkanization. Plebs of flyover country feel humiliated.
If you want to blame Trump for that, that is your right.
Clearly, President Trump is the symptom and not the cause.
Now why the hell would Cambodia leak the phone call, Thailand would replace her with someone who must performatively act tough and impossible to negotiate with. Chances are, political rivals from either side recorded and released it.
There are few leader who would undermine their own nation for sake for an epic public pwnage, though I can think of a few.
I would not say that.
I would say that this current war, and the trade tariff spat, is accelerating American decline.
America gave Israel the airplanes and the bombs. America did not want Israel to start a war with Iran. They did it anyways.
When you cannot control own vassal, something is clearly wrong. If your vassal believes you're weak and can be easily manipulated, that means you're weak. You're perceived as weak. A vassal probably knows you better than anyone else.
Strength controls or shapes events. America now has events shape them.
Something is wrong, and they cannot pull out of it.
That means the decline is accelerating.
Now, here is the funny stuff, at least I find it funny.
Both sides of the Israel and Iran war should be running out of missiles. That is funny because the United States is apparently low too on ammo, and the Chinese will not sell them rare earths to make more so they have to use their stockpiles, because of that tariff spat. That is too funny. I am laughing just writing this paragraph! Haha!
The other funny thing is the financial stuff. The United States appears to be ready to inflate their debts away. That is a standard but dirty practice among debtors, hope that inflation bails their ass out. Well, the United States is in a perfect position to do that for themselves. And that is going to be so damn funny, I laughing already!
Haha!
Haha!
Still a bit rookie like imo. If I was an elected leader, I wouldn't dream of calling another elected leader on my personal phone. If it was normal business I would also have a roomful of advisors in the same room. And I know nothing of politics.
US politics is all about divide and rule, just like its diplomacy. At the end of the day you extract military potential to wage war with.
Their soldiers contracts are in essence the same as indentured servitude, this should be very telling.
At the end of their contract they will receive access to Veterans Affair benefits easily worth $1m per person, several times the actual wage of a contract. That's how you make soldiers obedient slaves who will do anything to avoid dishonorable discharge.
I want to go to sleep, but this stuff is too riveting.
This really is history in the making.
Anyways, what I would like to say, is some technical reasons for American decline, in an absolute sense, given what has happened during Biden and Trump 2.0.
Biden laid the ground work for the two wars Trump 2.0 inherited. One in Ukraine, and one in Gaza. Then in Trump 2.0 a second front opened with Iran, which is another war basically. One is hand to hand urban combat, the other is more like video gamer kind of thing.
Wars drain the treasury. Wars tend to be inflationary. That is what they said about the Vietnam War, that was paid by the US and I think borrowing to pay for the war caused the inflation that came with the oil shock in the 70's.
So war is not good for the health of the state, it never is. You want short wars, or none at all.
As of today, the United States finds itself in three open ended conflicts, none of which they started, and all of which they are paying for, literally. It is American money supporting these three open ended wars. I am laughing my ass off already. Can you believe this? I cannot believe this? How can this happen?
Haha! Haha!
If you start the war, and are willing to pay for it and own it, that is one thing. But to have others start three wars and you still have to pay for all three that is another thing altogether and totally bizarre!
Haha! Haha!
World War 2, and how the British Empire went bankrupt, because they spent all the money in the war buying weapons!
Haha! Haha!
Three wars. Three!
Now, the point about Biden and Trump, that they did not do anything right either, because they seem to miscalculate always.
Biden's worst miscalculation was believing the Russian build up of troops along the border was just bluffing. Now the United States is paying for the war.
Trump, everything he does is wrong, when it comes to China. The Liberation Day, it really was all about China. Everyone else, those deals are a sideshow.
The uncertainty from the China Trade War 2.0 has already caused first quarter to contract. The second quarter may or may not contract, most people believe it will not, thus avoiding a recession.
Notice we hardly ever read about the US economy contracting in the first quarter in the American media including the financial press? The Americans take this struggle with China seriously. The propaganda is really up there going at full throttle.
The point is that the Americans, economically speaking, are unable to take on China anymore at the moment. Things can change in 10 years, but not right now. For sure. Trump had to try. He found out the hard way.
So, three wars, that someone else started for them, and Uncle Sam has to pay for all three. Draining the treasury in the process.
Unable to be stronger than China in an all out economic fight. That means less advantages, less money. That is only logical.
Thirdly, but in a preserve way, the inflation from paying for the wars, will inflate the debt away, lowering the debt burden. Of course the drawback is US dollar hegemony would suffer or we see a dollar decline. That is not good for the United States.
To sum up. Damn.
*** Wars draining the treasury, three of them.
*** Economy contracting, and seems like the other guy in China is stronger.
*** Inflation from the war spending unavoidable threat to dollar hegemony.
They could be the smartest person in the world and they will not be able to solve all three of these problems.
President Trump said as a candidate, no more stupid wars.
Now there are three stupid wars. If there was no stupid war, then of that list of problems, then there is only the economic problem. That would be easier to solve.
That is harder to solve with the stupid wars, because industrial warfare requires production, means resources are funneled into the war economy and not into other more productive ventures in the economy.
We have to appreciate how screwed they really are.
And, to top it all off, there was this one guy, and only one guy, who said, no more stupid wars, and he won twice with that platform.
Now there are three stupid wars. HAHAHHAHAHA!
Unbelievable.
In China, they are scratching their heads. They wonder what happened too.
Do nothing. This thing could collapse.
Yep, seem stupid for long term. I guess they ready to cut ties with Shinawatra family to gain the popularity back.
Cause as soon as they leak phone call, Cambodia start propaganda about how great Hun Sen is, how Thai leader are so afraid of him.
He also talking about leak more dirty secret of current members of Thai government if Thai didn't back down on border dispute.
The reason Cambodia leader seem to act this agressive seem to came from that fact that negotiation on border dispute on Vietnam side didn't end in thier favor. They already got pressure by opposition party (backed by US) and their own peoples. So, they need to direct that anger toward Thailand instead.
Are they protected by the Chinese navy? Any coverage by the Chinese air force?
How high should inflation be and how long should inflation be elevated "to inflate their debts away"?I would not say that.
I would say that this current war, and the trade tariff spat, is accelerating American decline.
America gave Israel the airplanes and the bombs. America did not want Israel to start a war with Iran. They did it anyways.
When you cannot control own vassal, something is clearly wrong. If your vassal believes you're weak and can be easily manipulated, that means you're weak. You're perceived as weak. A vassal probably knows you better than anyone else.
Strength controls or shapes events. America now has events shape them.
Something is wrong, and they cannot pull out of it.
That means the decline is accelerating.
Now, here is the funny stuff, at least I find it funny.
Both sides of the Israel and Iran war should be running out of missiles. That is funny because the United States is apparently low too on ammo, and the Chinese will not sell them rare earths to make more so they have to use their stockpiles, because of that tariff spat. That is too funny. I am laughing just writing this paragraph! Haha!
The other funny thing is the financial stuff. The United States appears to be ready to inflate their debts away. That is a standard but dirty practice among debtors, hope that inflation bails their ass out. Well, the United States is in a perfect position to do that for themselves. And that is going to be so damn funny, I laughing already!
Haha!
Haha!