2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

solarz

Brigadier
More and more reports like these are emerging,

Modi did meet Netanyahu in Cyprus just two days after the Pahalgam incident, and again recently just before this Iran conflict.

Wild guess on Indian strategy,

India, with it's own superpower ambitions, knew Russia is getting left behind a bit, feared the rise of China, ditched Russia to join the NATO-Israel nexus.

This nexus required India to pass some tests as initiation into the club. 1. An attack on Pakistan to weaken it, and show NATO that India can hinder Chinese interests in the region, prevent Pakistan from supporting Iran in anyway, as well as bring Pakistan's nukes back into the spotlight (for removal); and 2. Ditch previous agreements with Iran and instead use those developments for espionage and sabotage operations for the benefit of Israel.

Messing up #1 angered NATO enough to shower Pakistan with praise, kick India out of G-7, and humiliate it on the international level in many ways. While #2 succeeded, or atleast initially as they all seem to be getting rounded up now by Iran.

I think the coming days will tell how much India succeeded, gauged by Western interactions with India.

Sigh, just how incompetent do you have to be to get bested by Indian covert ops?
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
More and more reports like these are emerging,

Modi did meet Netanyahu in Cyprus just two days after the Pahalgam incident, and again recently just before this Iran conflict.

Wild guess on Indian strategy,

India, with it's own superpower ambitions, knew Russia is getting left behind a bit, feared the rise of China, ditched Russia to join the NATO-Israel nexus.

This nexus required India to pass some tests as initiation into the club. 1. An attack on Pakistan to weaken it, and show NATO that India can hinder Chinese interests in the region, prevent Pakistan from supporting Iran in anyway, as well as bring Pakistan's nukes back into the spotlight (for removal); and 2. Ditch previous agreements with Iran and instead use those developments for espionage and sabotage operations for the benefit of Israel.

Messing up #1 angered NATO enough to shower Pakistan with praise, kick India out of G-7, and humiliate it on the international level in many ways. While #2 succeeded, or atleast initially as they all seem to be getting rounded up now by Iran.

I think the coming days will tell how much India succeeded, gauged by Western interactions with India (i.e. rewarded or punished?).

For those who followed the Afghan War and India's involvement, the Chabahar Port was supposed to be India's entry point into Afghanistan to train terrorists against Pakistan. India invested into Chabahar (Iran gave India a 10-year lease), invested in a rail connection from Chabahar to [I forgot], setting up a corridor to Afghanistan. But as NATO withdrew, to the dismay of India, and a historically anti-India Taliban formed the government, India's entire strategy (at the time) pretty much backfired. That is (my guess) when India decided to continue this project for the Israeli-NATO nexus - instead of targeting Pakistan, as initially planned, the corridor shifted towards anti-Iran operations. Hence, you got now Iran apprehending both Indians and Afghans who worked for Israel.

If true the May 7th attack appears to be a coordinated effort. They want to make sure that no Muslim country has nuclear capabilities…
 

Friendly

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Politically, both Russia & China
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the Isaeli attack, and Russia recently made noises about the joint Bushehr nuclear facility it has with Iran. We also heard about China sending ELINT ships near Iran. And let's not forget, Trump extended the decision to enter the conflict for two weeks.

These are obvious signals; either it starts to wind down soon, or we see more overt diplomatic steps, like UN security council meetings, followed by military escalation from all sides & their backers.

Most likely this is because both Israel & Iran are getting destablizied as the fighting goes on. Iran faces an insurgency within, while Israel has an opposition that's actively trying to put their criminal PM in jail and maybe pin the genocide thing on him alone while at it. Plus, a sizeable part of Israel is trying to run away, hence the clampdown on travel.
Militarily, Iran took a pummeling, but is hitting back pretty hard based on open source showing depleted Israeli AD. Both sides are hurting; this is when you push them to negotiate.

As a side note, neither Russia nor China support Iran militarily to the full extent they can, this is likely in deference to relations with Gulf monarchies, turkey, and Pakistan. Iran has issues to one degree or another with all of those, and not surprisingly, so does Israel. But, in this particular case, there's no issue with support because Iran's proxies are weakened and have stopped threatneing the Arabs & an unstable Iran is a nightmare for the region.

PS Apologies if this derails the thread, I feel like a 'connect the dots' post very occasionally is needed to make sense of all the news.
 
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CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
Politically, both Russia & China
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the Isaeli attack, and Russia recently made noises about the joint Bushehr nuclear facility it has with Iran. We also heard about China sending ELINT ships near Iran. And let's not forget, Trump extended the decision to enter the conflict for two weeks.

These are obvious signals; either it starts to wind down soon, or we see more overt diplomatic steps, like UN security council meetings, followed by military escalation from all sides & their backers.

Most likely this is because both Israel & Iran are getting destablizied as the fighting goes on. Iran faces an insurgency within, while Israel has an opposition that's actively trying to put their criminal PM in jail and maybe pin the genocide thing on him alone while at it. Plus, a sizeable part of Israel is trying to run away, hence the clampdown on travel.
Militarily, Iran took a pummeling, but is hitting back pretty hard based on open source showing depleted Israeli AD. Both sides are hurting; this is when you push them to negotiate.

As a side note, neither Russia nor China support Iran militarily to the full extent they can, this is likely in deference to relations with Gulf monarchies, turkey, and Pakistan. Iran has issues to one degree or another with all of those, and not surprisingly, so does Israel. But, in this particular case, there's no issue with support because Iran's proxies are weakened and have stopped threatneing the Arabs & an unstable Iran is a nightmare for the region.

PS Apologies if this derails the thread, I feel like a 'connect the dots' post very occasionally is needed to make sense of all the news.
Not a derail at all. This framing of the context helps bring meaning to the greater events surrounding and embedded within this war.

This morning BM strike on Israel

Apparently the missile barrage was very small but managed to make atleast one impact

The supposed target was Dimona nuclear facility south of Israel for those concerned about targeting civilians
"Babies & children" cry and moan about the world as it is (civilian casualties regardless intended or not). "Adults" focus on a mix of surviving, building up one's advantages, compensating for one's weaknesses, winning, cutting one's losses, and maximizing the opposition's losses.
 
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xyz4321

Junior Member
Registered Member
Morale of the story goes: if morale is in the gutter, you'll lose all the battles,

These are obvious signals; either it starts to wind down soon, or we see more overt diplomatic steps, like UN security council meetings, followed by military escalation from all sides & their backers.
Israel has to maintain the image of invincibility, invulnerable (even if false). They already lost that with Irani missiles causing massive damage in Tel Aviv. Tried hard to win the info war with false narratives but social media destroyed MSM (who's still reporting Israel as invincible). Once this image is destroyed, it emboldens all potential enemies. Thus, to counterbalance this loss, Israel will not end this conflict without actually showing that the damage in Iran is far worse and irreparable. They'll now use any tactic to get US involved and shatter the concept of Iran. Given Israel's history, I don't see this ending soon.

____



Damn, even I didn't realize it is this big. The Mercator map must be a conspiracy,


If true the May 7th attack appears to be a coordinated effort. They want to make sure that no Muslim country has nuclear capabilities…
As you can see, this now the 2nd time in this conflict that Israel has brought Pakistan into the equation,

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This morning BM strike on Israel

Apparently the missile barrage was very small but managed to make atleast one impact

The supposed target was Dimona nuclear facility south of Israel for those concerned about targeting civilians
In another video I posted earlier, this car wreck is shown as a result of an interceptor making a U-turn into the ground.
 
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zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
More and more reports like these are emerging,

That sounds pretty implausible. The Israelis do not need Indian help whatsoever to operate in Iran, so there's no benefit and only risk in exposing such an operation to RAW.

If Iranian counterintelligence recently detained some Indians, they were most likely working for the Israelis directly.

Hence, you got now Iran apprehending both Indians and Afghans who worked for Israel.

Are there any credible videos of these reported Indian saboteurs in Iranian custody?
 
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