2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

neutralobserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
Iran can make a nuclear bomb in two weeks, they ahve enought HEU for 6 bomb, and they have liquid fuel BM with 2200 kg throw capacity.
Little Boy weight is 4400 kg, with current technology it could be expected in less than 2000 kg. Needed 60 kg or less 80% average U235, Iran has 400+kg 60%, means few more trip in the centrifuge cascade will do it in few weeks.
Design simple, doesn't require testing, carrier available.
Any such attempt would cause per-emptive nuclear strike by Israel most likely. Its too late now for Iran to build the bomb.
 

delfer

New Member
Registered Member
Ratios:
population of Iran is 8.5 times bigger than Israel
Area of iran is 80 times bigger than Israel.

the non Negev desert , livable area of Israel is smaller than Beijing city.
View attachment 154535

Kyiv Oblast in Ukraine bigger than Israel.

500 missile/shahed per days means 10 hit per square km, including negev

The whole USA+NATO MIC can make 500 patriot missile/year .

By the Patriot battery attack in downtown Tel Aviv required 12 missile to intercept one warhead from the three, the leftover managed to destroy the radar.

Means Iran need to launch one missile in every third day to keep empty the USA SAM inventory. They had 3000 interceptor left, after the last few days most likell 2000-2500 on stock .
even Russia can spare more interceptor per year than the USA can make.
And now China or Russia can loan few mobile defence if needed, but most likelly Iran has enoguth spare capacity , need only reorganisation.

Iran can make a nuclear bomb in two weeks, they ahve enought HEU for 6 bomb, and they have liquid fuel BM with 2200 kg throw capacity.
Little Boy weight is 4400 kg, with current technology it could be expected in less than 2000 kg. Needed 60 kg or less 80% average U235, Iran has 400+kg 60%, means few more trip in the centrifuge cascade will do it in few weeks.
Design simple, doesn't require testing, carrier available.


Only chance that Israel had is to collaps IRan on first day, by decapating the leadership, and by conducting PR strikes, like attack oil storage next to highways, making and sharing videos, and creating an atomsphere of defeat to trigger a quick collapse of Iran.

Approx. the same strategy followed in 2022 against Russia.


If Iran can't strike back in 24hrs, then they succed.
Iran strike back. Israel lost. Can't win the war of atrition against Iran. And if USA jumps in the China/Russia could be expected to do the same, because they done't want Iranian bomb.
On point. People fail to realize just how large Iran is. And how small Israel is. They for some reason believe that Tehran IS Iran, but that’s not even close to being true.
 

delfer

New Member
Registered Member
If people here consider a flooding pipe strategic damage. I don't what to say.
It’s the same reaction as when Ukraine destroys any small thing in Russia. I’m afraid people just don’t understand scale when it comes to war.

Is that street flood a nuisance? Yes. Is it a strategic hit? No. Not even a tactical one. This is something many cities deal with on a regular day after a simple rain storm.

Just the usual Israeli obsession with dealing small damage to their enemies, waiting for it to be filmed, then attempting to sow chaos and despair. Israel is obsessed with theatrics.
 
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delfer

New Member
Registered Member
Iran really became a playground for mossad. Seems like they are free to experiment with creative ways for sabotages .. sigh
Israel may very well be going through the same right now, but we’ll never know thanks to the media blackout they put in place.

You know, for being a member of the “free democratic world”, Israel sure loves restricting freedoms and communication, whereas supposed slave zombie Iranians seem quite free to film what they want.
 
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Mmmeeeto

Junior Member
Registered Member
According to none state pro iran telegram :

Contrary to some rumors, the Ministry of Intelligence building was not directly hit.

According to initial reports, a hand-held projectile was thrown into the compound, which fortunately did not cause serious damage.

From the same source

A British F-35 fighter jet has made an emergency landing in India after taking part in intercepting Iranian attacks last night due to a lack of fuel.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Agree in everything except this part. The only chance the Iran has is damaging Israel economic infrastructure to the point that force Western powers to peace deal. To damage military target, Iranian missiles are not very accurate to do meaningful damage. Iran doesn't have a decent air force. They best defense is deception using decoys to make Israel to wasted munitions and hit their economic infrastructure as hard as they can. Intel fabs are pretty nice target for example.

If all Iran could do was making little razerblade cuts against Israel, they should have rolled over much earlier and avoided all the beating.

The level of strategic miscalculation and mismanagement is breathtaking on Iran’s part. They don’t seem to even understand what kind of fight they are in.

Israel is actively chopping off all its limbs so it can slowly dice Iran up into mincemeat and Iran is still trying to play the long slow bleed game and complaining to the nonexistent referee about Israeli foul play and dirty tricks.

Iran must at a minimum slow the blows raining in on its head or it’s over for them. Hell, it’s probably already over for them, but they needed to have at a minimum disrupted the IAF’s bombing campaign from the get go. That first wave of missiles should have been against Israeli air bases and the missiles should not have stopped raining down. Even if Iran emptied its missile inventory, if it could have just kept up the pressure, the IAF offensive campaign would have been seriously derailed and potentially given them enough breathing space to recover from the initial decapitation strikes.

As things stand, by the time new leaders and commanders get into post, they will have hardly any assets left to do anything with.
 
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