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Miscellaneous News
- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
This is nonsense. China doesn't give a damn about whether Chinese students are allowed in Harvard. Sure, they'll talk as if it has value, but the PRC won't concede a thing to get the US to reverse their decision. The rare earth embargo serves two huge purposes: it's a massive blow to industrial output, and it's almost a death knell to advanced military technology. It's so valuable that the US would have to give something super juicy in exchange. I suspect that they will have to give up on the semiconductor embargo at a very minimum, and quite possibly things like the Huawei bans as well. And even then, I think that China will require that these rare earth metals will be unable to go to American military suppliers.China opens part of its Rare Earth exports to US manufacturers, in exchange for Trump opening visas for Chinese students at Harvard University.
Why? It's a shame for China. I can't get it. Does anyone here know more?
That's very unlikely. The total value of rare earth minerals isn't very large - the US imports only $150 million a year. Raising that price holds almost no value for China.
What good is the lift on EUV this late IMO, if Chinese EUV is as most people predict (ie. trial production next year and being mostly competitive with ASML designs) then the lift of EUV machine ban wouldn't change much as even if Chinese chipmakers order them right now it'll still take anywhere from a year to a few years for the machine to finally be delivered and assembled. It's a bit too late too little by now
Removal of all semiconductor controls including euv and nvidia is the only price worth giving up the rare earth leverage.
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Those are not even worth much at this point, domestic EUV is expected soon, Huawei has equivalent nvidia AI chip now. Removal of semiconductor ban may even be harmful to domestic developments especially DUV and EUV where local products are still not quite at ASML level.
Personally I'd very much like the ban to last a couple more years until domestic products are fully competitive in global market. It is almost like reverse protectionism the Americans done for China
I think China will keep the export ban on US military companies, knowing that there'll be some smuggling. But it's not in China's interest to crash global manufacturing of cars, electronics, etc for consumer use. Too much blowback politically and economically.
China opens part of its Rare Earth exports to US manufacturers, in exchange for Trump opening visas for Chinese students at Harvard University.
Why? It's a shame for China. I can't get it. Does anyone here know more?
Sources on RE: (from Reuters)
Sources on Harvard student visas: (from WSJ, and CCTV)
So, what's not real? Tomorrow there'll be a meeting in London to negotiate further trade deals. But by now, it's an exchange of the two sides. Though both operations, no matter issuing licenses or opening student visas, can be rolled back in a sec if one side is not happy in the coming days. However, students are not as strategically significant as rare earth. Also, RE is out of control from China once it's abroad, but visas of several insignificant Chinese students are always in US' control.
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Is " association is not causation" applicable though?Sources on RE: (from Reuters)
Source on Harvard student visas: (from WSJ, & CCTV/Xinhua News)
So, what's not real? Tomorrow there'll be a meeting in London to negotiate further trade deals. But by now, it's an exchange of the two sides. Though both operations, no matter issuing licenses or opening student visas, can be rolled back in a sec if one side is not happy in the coming days. Apparently, students are not as strategically significant as rare earth. RE is out of control from China once it's abroad, but visas of several Chinese students are always in US' control.