COMAC C919

[tphuang]

i think they probably have enough supplies of Leap-1C for this year, but that's about it. So there could be some real disruptions if this doesn't get worked out. I'm assuming this is some type of negotiation tactic from Trump, but I wouldn't budge here if I was China.

But realistically speaking, it's going to take some time for CJ-1000A equipped C919 to complete flight testing. You don't want to speed that up just because C919 program might suffer some delays. Airlines can always lease aircraft in the interim.

 

[GiantPanda]

i think they probably have enough supplies of Leap-1C for this year, but that's about it. So there could be some real disruptions if this doesn't get worked out. I'm assuming this is some type of negotiation tactic from Trump, but I wouldn't budge here if I was China.

But realistically speaking, it's going to take some time for CJ-1000A equipped C919 to complete flight testing. You don't want to speed that up just because C919 program might suffer some delays. Airlines can always lease aircraft in the interim.

Delays now will remove risks permanently. It is different for a private venture where investment and future customers would have moved on.

But this is a top level national program stated in multiple Five-Year Plans where investment won't stop and customers in the form of national airlines will be still there after the delays.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

The problem now becomes - What's next, in the meantime?

There is certainly going to be a C919 production gap between the last LEAP-1C engine being used up and the first serial-production CJ1000A engine becomes available for the C919s.

Of course, they could gently press on the brakes on the C919 production run, so as to prolong the production of LEAP 1C-powered C919s as much as possible. And once all the LEAP-1C engines have been used up, they could continue building the C919s without any engines installed while waiting for the CJ1000A engines to become available.

However, those incomplete C919s will then be left parking somewhere else at Pudong and not being utilized in commercial service. The accumulated parking fees aren't going to be cheap either, as long as the C919s didn't get their CJ1000As.

Then, there's also the issue with all the Chinese airlines that have already made orders for the C919s. They would certainly have to keep maintaining the presently available narrowbody fleets in the meantime, lease aircrafts from other airlines or leasing companies, delay the retirement of older airframes and also defer the training of new pilots and crew for the C919 until the CJ1000A-powered C919s are available.

In any case, Beijing must step in at this crucial juncture and support COMAC until they gets C919s that are already equipped with CJ1000As rolling off the assembly line. The certification processes of the CJ1000A engines + utilization onboard C919s must be sped up - Alongside the domestication of as many remaining completely-foreign parts on the C919 as possible.

 

[GiantPanda]

The problem now becomes - What's next, in the meantime?

There is certainly going to be a C919 production gap between the last LEAP-1C engine being used up and the first serial-production CJ1000A engine becomes available for the C919s.

Of course, they could gently press on the brakes on the C919 production run, so as to prolong the production of LEAP 1C-powered C919s as much as possible. And once all the LEAP-1C engines have been used up, they could continue building the C919s without any engines installed while waiting for the CJ1000A engines to become available.

However, those incomplete C919s will then be left parking somewhere else at Pudong and not being utilized in commercial service. The accumulated parking fees aren't going to be cheap either, as long as the C919s didn't get their CJ1000As.

There's also the issue with all the Chinese airlines that have already made orders for the C919s. They would certainly have to keep maintaining the presently available narrowbody fleets in the meantime, delay the retirement of older airframes and also defer the training of new pilots and crew for the C919 until CJ1000A-powered C919s are available.

In any case, Beijing must step in at this crucial juncture and support COMAC until they gets C919s that are already equipped with CJ1000As rolling off the assembly line. And the certification processes of the CJ1000A engines + usage onboard C919s must be sped up - Alongside the domestication of as many remaining completely-foreign parts on COMAC as possible.

Testing and certification of CFM's LEAP program took around three years I believe and that is from a very experienced company that basically royalty in building commercial aircraft engines. The trust of this company during the certification process would be magnitudes over AECC meaning probably a lot of things won't need to be re-tested or excessively scrutinized that you would not allow for a novice company.

Unless politics trumps normal protocols, I imagine it would be at least five years. Looking at the C909 and C919 itself, China is not afraid of delays to get things right. Again, it's a national project -- the demand will still be there after 5 or 7 years.

 

[ansy1968]

Testing and certification of CFM's LEAP program took around three years I believe and that is from a very experienced company that basically royalty in building commercial aircraft engines. The trust of this company during the certification process would be magnitudes over AECC meaning probably a lot of things won't need to be re-tested or excessively scrutinized that you would not allow for a novice company.

Unless politics trumps normal protocols, I imagine it would be at least five years. Looking at the C909 and C919 itself, China is not afraid of delays to get things right. Again, it's a national project -- the demand will still be there after 5 or 7 years.

Interim solution, use SF-A , the civilian version of WS20. then subsidies the airline that used it until the CJ1000A finished it certification. It may take at least 2 years to certify so there is still window for it to moved forward.

 

[Hitomi]

Testing and certification of CFM's LEAP program took around three years I believe and that is from a very experienced company that basically royalty in building commercial aircraft engines. The trust of this company during the certification process would be magnitudes over AECC meaning probably a lot of things won't need to be re-tested or excessively scrutinized that you would not allow for a novice company.

Unless politics trumps normal protocols, I imagine it would be at least five years. Looking at the C909 and C919 itself, China is not afraid of delays to get things right. Again, it's a national project -- the demand will still be there after 5 or 7 years.

China could make the development and certification process run near 24/7 with around 6 teams each and halve the development back down again.

Not to mention, now that they have excess fuselages, why not convert more of them for certification like the AG-600

 

[tphuang]

The problem now becomes - What's next, in the meantime?

There is certainly going to be a C919 production gap between the last LEAP-1C engine being used up and the first serial-production CJ1000A engine becomes available for the C919s.

Of course, they could gently press on the brakes on the C919 production run, so as to prolong the production of LEAP 1C-powered C919s as much as possible. And once all the LEAP-1C engines have been used up, they could continue building the C919s without any engines installed while waiting for the CJ1000A engines to become available.

However, those incomplete C919s will then be left parking somewhere else at Pudong and not being utilized in commercial service. The accumulated parking fees aren't going to be cheap either, as long as the C919s didn't get their CJ1000As.

Then, there's also the issue with all the Chinese airlines that have already made orders for the C919s. They would certainly have to keep maintaining the presently available narrowbody fleets in the meantime, lease aircrafts from other airlines or leasing companies, delay the retirement of older airframes and also defer the training of new pilots and crew for the C919 until the CJ1000A-powered C919s are available.

In any case, Beijing must step in at this crucial juncture and support COMAC until they gets C919s that are already equipped with CJ1000As rolling off the assembly line. The certification processes of the CJ1000A engines + utilization onboard C919s must be sped up - Alongside the domestication of as many remaining completely-foreign parts on the C919 as possible.

this really isn't a big problem. Airlines deal with delivery delays all the time. You should see some of the delivery delays in Airbus programs. That's why airlines routinely lease aircraft or reduce growth or slow down retirement.

 

[PopularScience]

Leap 1c is French product.

 

[gadgetcool5]

We've all known this day was coming - known for at least 5 years, if not more. Plenty of time was given to prepare, if that was what was needed.

 

[gelgoog]

Leap 1c is French product.

LEAP engine is made by CFM International. This is a joint company by General Electric aka GE (US) and Safran (France). GE builds the hot section of the engine and Safran the cold section.

CFM was initially created to produce the CFM 56 civilian engine which used technology from the hot section of the engine in the B-1 Lancer bomber aka GE F101. This engine was also later developed into the GE F110 engine for the F-15 and F-16 fighter aircraft.