Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

[sheogorath]

Apparently there were several close calls over Yemen. It seems achieving air superiority isn't as easy as people might have come to believe if the US can't do it over a country with no air force.

Would further cement the Desert Storm campaign as a one-off

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1922052918011953203

Another one

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1922067590266155420

 

[siegecrossbow]

Apparently there were several close calls over Yemen. It seems achieving air superiority isn't as easy as people might have come to believe if the US can't do it over a country with no air force.

Would further cement the Desert Storm campaign as a one-off

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1922052918011953203

Houthis have downed or maimed F-15SA with jury rigged R-27s before. USAF should operate on the side of caution against them despite the vast gap in hardware capabilities.

 

[sheogorath]

Houthis have downed or maimed F-15SA with jury rigged R-27s before. USAF should operate on the side of caution against them despite the vast gap in hardware capabilities.

I can't imagine the internet meltdown if an F-35 got Rafale'd

 

[siegecrossbow]

I can't imagine the internet meltdown if an F-35 got Rafale'd

They can always outsource the cope posts to India.

All joking aside Fifth Gen aircraft do not have all aspect stealth despite what Lockheed brochures try to sell you. When competently designed and manufactured, they have a “bow tie” signature. This is why pilots need training to keep enemy assets in the optimal profile when flying. In the case of Houthis, however, they may have underestimated them entirely thinking that they don’t have the air defense missiles to reach a stealth jet and flew too low and too close, enough perhaps for targeting with IR sensors.

 

[TPenglake]

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53% of all Israelis oppose humanitarian aid to Gaza, which is on the brink of famine right now. That includes both Jewish and Arab Israelis, so some people morbidly noted if only Israeli Jews were asked that number would way more than 53%.

They constantly educate the world as to how Hitler managed to get Germans to be okay with exterminating entire races and then radicalize their people to this extent.

 

[CaribouTruth]

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Israel preparing to strike Iran fast if Trump's nuclear talks break down​

Israel is making preparations to swiftly strike Iran's nuclear facilities if negotiations between the U.S. and Iran collapse, two Israeli sources with knowledge of the discussions tell Axios.

Both sources confirmed

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that the Israel Defense Forces have been conducting exercises and other preparations for a possible strike in Iran. "There was a lot of training and the U.S. military sees everything and understands Israel is preparing," one said.

I'm personally of the belief that Israel will do this with or without US approval as fait accompli.

 

[TK3600]

Why do they think it will do better than last try? And if they could, they would already have done it.

 

[ismellcopium]

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Israel preparing to strike Iran fast if Trump's nuclear talks break down​

I'm personally of the belief that Israel will do this with or without US approval as fait accompli.

Still not sure how this is gonna actually play out. Israel can barely scratch anything if US sits it out but they pulled the B-2s back already lol.

 

[hereforsemithread]

Houthi discourse is tedious. Complete Nothingburger.

The US could definitely establish air supremacy over Yemen it would just have to actually put in the work of massing air forces in SA and drawing up a real plan for consistently locating and destroying the Iranian SAMs there.
More importantly it would have to be willing to lose a nonzero number of piloted craft in the process which the public has no appetite for. So this isn't happening.

As to actually destroying the houthis that's impossible conventionally. Yemen is heavily mountainous and the size of Montana, and they are deeply embedded in the civilian populace. Moreover their coastline is too large to feasibility blockade especially when they've already accumulated a considerable number of ASBMs again from Iran.

The only way to actually do it would be to pursue a genocidal campaign against the houthi controlled portion of Yemen itself which SA already tried and failed to do last decade. The US attempted this against North Vietnam and likewise failed from public discontent over the draft, the North Vietnamese Air Force being competent, and domestic moral outrage. Again not happening.

All that being said it's also true that the houthis aren't really doing much. They've been harassing shipping in the aden Gulf for 18 months and it's done basically nothing at an aggregate level to Israel or Europe. They've bombed Israel a couple times but they have zero real ISTAR and evidently Iranian inertial guidance systems aren't great (see April 2024) so beyond the symbolic message it's likewise done basically nothing.

I have no idea why DOD has given them the time of day. It's a total waste and unnecessarily flattering towards a group that doesn't pose a real proactive threat to anyone other than the people they rule.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

Do they really need to concentrate air forces against an irregular army with no navy and no air force to establish air superiority?

This argument of yours, contrary to what is expected, may serve the purpose of highlighting the inability of the US to establish air superiority. If they could, they would have already established it.

I think you are ignoring the implications here.

If they needed to concentrate air forces against the Houthis, what does that tell you about Iran? Against Russia? Against China?

Do you see how the war in Ukraine has made the debate so polluted on this issue of air superiority? If the Americans, who already had forces deployed in the region, counting on a CVN with its entire air wing and bombers in Diego Garcia, were unable to establish air superiority by losing combat aircraft and drones to the Houthis, do you really believe that the Americans would have the capacity to achieve air superiority against Russia? Against China? Even against Iran, this objective can be considered doubtful.

This is what DS 91 (outlier) and two decades of invading countries without the slightest possibility of retaliating against the attack provided to turn the debate on air superiority into a war of narratives, but the issue of Ukraine and its repercussions, combined with other more recent events, are demonstrating that air superiority is no longer as easily achievable as it was made to seem in DS and air supremacy is a thing of the past.