The sinking of South Korean Corvette Cheonan

[Mr T]

Those countries are not directly involved, which is all the more suspicious because they definitely have something to gain by supporting the US and nothing to lose.

So what did the US offer them? Come on, let's see your evidence of bribery. Oh wait, there's never any evidence with conspiracies other than "suspicions" is there?

As for what they had to lose, if their respective governments had forced the experts to lie and been found out there'd be a massive uproar in those countries - especially in Sweden with its strong neutral streak - that could topple the administrations. In truth there'd be little to gain and everything to lose.

Considering NK is denying the accusations it could be a rogue commander who acted independently (The Sum of All Fears anyone?)

The Sum of All Fears is a film - it's fiction. The North Korean leadership is not known for its independent thinking. If someone signed off on this by themselves they'd be for the chopper. Only Kim Il-Jung could have approved something like this, though I'm sure he'd find a scapegoat if he had to.

 

[ravenshield936]

You could not include North Korea in the investigating team because they'd use it as a vehicle to destroy the investigation one way or another.

Do you have evidence that they wanted to be involved but were not invited? Maybe they didn't want to be involved because they feared they'd have to either back the report (facing North Korean ire) or kill it (facing everyone else's ire).

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This seems to me to be a good response. Avoids military escalation but kicks the North Korean government where it hurts.

As usual I predict that North Korea will throw a temper-tantrum but take no further substantive action, despite its threats to the contrary. It's time that the world ignored the wailing North Korean baby pounding its fists on the floor and refuses to deal with it until it acts reasonably.

Orthan, I agree with you that now is the time for action. hina may not like it but it's time for it to choose - North Korea, or South Korea and by default the rest of the world. It's tried to have its cake and eat it over North Korea's behaviour for too long.

I start to think, after looking at this move set by SK, that if NK really sank the warship, it's completely an anticipated move that kim has prepared as a "gift" for China.

Since Kim's last visit to China happened shortly after the sinking, I don't think it's coincidental at all. Perhaps Kim is trying to use this event as leverage in front of China to request certain assistance or to back them up in this incident or whatever, but China isn't planning to plant a footstep into this issue this time, especially seeing the outrage and magnitude this event can escalate and how backing N.Korea(if Kim really did it), can taint China's reputation as a respected emerging nation.

Refusal may have led to Kim getting angry and leaving ahead of schedule. Although they've said it's China refusing infrastructural aid or whatever, but it can be a coverup.

Lastly, China's unusual quiet response to hearing the accusation towards NK and involvement shows that something seems different. And perhaps PRC is anticipating what both Koreas' next move will be.

Of course everything I've said here is unsupported, but this is my guess.
I really don't see a visit to China shortly after the sinking, and an angry Kim canceling trip earlier than schedule, as coincidental at all.

But oh well we'll see where things take us soon. It may just die down after a while like all things.

Either way, I'm quite sure like everyone else, Beijing is watching to see how things will unfold.

 

[PanAsian]

That's an awful excuse. It was an unprovoked, premeditated sneak attack. It couldn't be more significant.

That the incident occurred in a disputed area is a fact. Military patrols in disputed areas by any side are provocations by default.

To be clear, I am saying this is the latest in a string of related incidents surrounding a known issue, which is why it is not as significant as if it was a unique incident surrounding a new issue.

Here is some supporting information:

Location of sinking

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Background on the disputed area

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Somewhere out there is a map illustrating where North Korea considers the maritime border to be, but I can't find it right now.

BTW both Australia and the UK fought on the South Korean side in the Korean War so they are neither neutral nor disinterested.

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[ravenshield936]

Don't equate every country in the world to North Korea. When was the last time Sweden committed a gross violation of UN law and then consistently lied about it? The North Koreans have so little credibility that I can't think of anyone I'd trust less.

The last thing the Republic of Korea wanted was for North Korea to torpedo their ship, and they wouldn't like to present it as such. The awful pressure placed on the South Korean government to retaliate can't be worth it. Nor would the US want a crisis like this to deal with.

Equally why are Australia and the UK going to help make things worse when there's no need to? Please don't give me some nonsense about puppets of the US, they're independent countries that would act objectively. Are we to believe that the report was an international conspiracy? No, just accept there's no reason to disbelieve other than "I don't like the result".



Well it is. No one forces China to protect Iran from UN sanctions.



See above. Australia, Sweden and the UK are not "one side of the dispute". They're not involved in the North/South Korea problem.



Australia, Sweden and the UK would not take part in a conspiracy to preserve US-ROK relations, nor is there any evidence their investigators would give a damn even if their governments had pressured them to cover it up.

But I guess you made your mind up as soon as this happened and before the report came out. Any further evidence provided/support offered will just become part of the "conspiracy"......

Even if they aren't involved in this incident, it doesn't mean they are suitable either. Considering how UK, Sweden have a stronger ties to the West and the US, and how everyone hates NK, I don't rule out the possibility the reports, even if done objectively, becomes skewed when the upper management gets hold of it. UK(and I'm not sure if Sweden is), is in the NATO.

I'd think Switzerland may be at a better position to conduct the investigations, although honestly, no one really is.

************Removal of flamebait and country bashing remarks and personal insults. Ravenshield you are treading on thin ice!*******

bd popeye super moderator

I hope Gulf of Tonkin doesn't happen.

 

[SampanViking]

So what did the US offer them? Come on, let's see your evidence of bribery. Oh wait, there's never any evidence with conspiracies other than "suspicions" is there?

As for what they had to lose, if their respective governments had forced the experts to lie and been found out there'd be a massive uproar in those countries - especially in Sweden with its strong neutral streak - that could topple the administrations. In truth there'd be little to gain and everything to lose.

No need for them to lie, all they need to do is examine and pronounce on the evidence provided to them.

The question is about the provenance of the evidence and of course how the results of the investigation are subsequently spun. All I have read on the report is simply press commentary as nowhere (that I can find) has the report itself been published.

It really is like listening to those bad old adverts of my childhood that began with phrases such "Scientists believe".

A huge amount of this is being asked to be a taken on trust. Given that those asking are proven serial liars I would say you would need your head inspecting if you are prepared to give it to them unconditionally or uncritically.

 

[Orthan]

Beijing is watching to see how things will unfold.

yeah, i agree. China wants to keep away from this incident, at least as long as it doesnt escalate further. However when the issue gets to the UNSC, china will be forced to play its hand.

Again, it depends on how willing is South Korea to negociate a resolution. My bet is not much, and thats trouble for china, already under accusation in the west of protecting Iran in the UNSC.

But we will see.

 

[Mr T]

Given that those asking are proven serial liars I would say you would need your head inspecting if you are prepared to give it to them unconditionally or uncritically.

So you're suggesting that the international experts were naive fools who took dodgy evidence at face value despite the fact that it was somehow suspect? I doubt that very much. If anyone would have found something wrong it would have been them. I'm sure they evaluated thoroughly. Unless I am provided with evidence that I should disbelieve their perceptive skills I'll trust them.

In any case in what way is South Korea a serial liar?

Out of all the players in this affair North Korea are the serial liars. It was the US, South Korea and friends who were labelled as liars/warmongers when they said Pyongyang wanted the bomb. They were proven right. So really I don't see why they shouldn't be trusted - they've been right on North Korea up until now.

 

[bladerunner]

IMHO, North korea went too far and its time for the international comunity to act

What other effective measures are left, short on invading Nork.

Futhermore if the SK corvette was sunk accidentally by friendly fire, why not admit it and move on sheeez. This course of action that the conspiracy theorists would have us believe, IMO is achieving very little other than boxing oneself into a corner.

 

[Mr T]

I'd think Switzerland may be at a better position to conduct the investigations, although honestly, no one really is.

What does Switzerland have to do with anything? Stop me if I'm wrong, but could being a tiny, landlocked country make it hard for it to have experts on tap who can identify Korean torpedoes?

What is your position, that there shouldn't have been an investigation because no one is 100% impartial? Then why ever have any investigations into anything? Find me a perfect human being to be a prosecutor, judge, juror, etc. Human beings are flawed, so unless you have evidence that the experts were grossly unfit for the job I can't agree the report is useless.

 

[Mr T]

What other effective measures are left, short on invading Nork.

Further sanctions such as countries being able to search North Korean ships when and where they see fit, economic sanctions with bite, etc.

Futhermore if the SK corvette was sunk accidentally by friendly fire, why not admit it and move on sheeez. This course of action that the conspiracy theorists would have us believe, IMO is achieving very little other than boxing oneself into a corner.

Exactly. Lots of risk for no gain.