The Kashmir conflict 2025.

[talonn]

There's a very strong debate in Iran about nukes right now.
Khomeini was always strongly against it, but reality around gives lots of arguments to those who consider this position foolish.

Pakistani case is certainly one more.

p.s. while Iran doesn't have Pakistani jets, it has strong local AD production ecosystem (also not without certain norinco roots).

Speaking of Iran, which jets did Pakistan use to retaliate against Iran not so long ago?

 

[Gloire_bb]

Speaking of Iran, which jets did Pakistan use to retaliate against Iran not so long ago?

JF-17s iirc.

 

[LCR34]

Speaking of Iran, which jets did Pakistan use to retaliate against Iran not so long ago?

JF17 and J10CE

 

[xyz4321]

At least one SAAB-2000 was destroyed at Bolari, from what I read, along with 5 KIA. And if a base compound is being hit, it certainly cannot be said to be a 'miss', like Balakot was. But overall, it was indeed a message. India was never going to put Pakistan in a position where it becomes impossible for them to go down the ladder.

You read.. but you did not see, right? In fact, you did not see even a single major hit anywhere. Landing shots on empty land is a miss, not a hit. Lobbing millions of dollars worth of missiles only to land on empty land without causing much damage is as useless. Calling it "sending a message" is just cope.
_______

Body language says it all

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1921241492942717339

 

[GiantPanda]

Unlike LoC shelling matches, that farcical surgical strike that may be took down a few grunts (if that) or the disaster that was Balakot, India finally established a clear conventional deterrence against Pakistan. Pakistani army will think again before any more shenanigans. Another 10 years of calm is likely.

The entire Indian air force was basically rendered useless within hours of its initial strike.

We can tell simply from the PL-15Es recovered in enemy territory (AMRAAMs during Balakot) but a complete and damning lack of any BVR missiles from the Indian side.

Your aircraft can't even find a lock or any solution to fire. That is why you can only brag about your heavy platform, the SU-30MKI, doing nothing but dodging.

Right now the IAF is neutered as an effective force because it cannot fight a BVR battle.

The only thing India had established here is they have no real air cover.

 

[AndrewJ]

especially if it is true that Pakistan withheld the female pilot and second downed Rafale.

These are still initial claims from yesterday. The Weibo post I posted just now turned out to be misleading & fake. There're so far no new confirmation & sources besides yesterday's initial claims from Paki military.

So IMO there is no captured pilot! All are fake news. I'll consider it fake until new evidence/sources come.

 

[N00B]

In what world would you even start talking about deterrence when the result is, word-for-word from you, "India may lose some, but Pakistan won't come out unscathed either"?? With population and defence budget 6-7x larger than Pakistan and that's all you can achieve?

I agree India's performance isn't proportional to its budget. But you aren't factoring in a very important element here. Pakistan is a nuclear power. Numerical advantage stops being proportional once your opponent has nukes.

For example India cannot do a blockade of Karachi or do a ground invasion of Pakistan, ever. Other than non-state sub-conventional proxies like BLA/TTP, the only conventional thing India can play here are AF and AD. Here's what happened -

1. India killed about 20 terrorists and their handlers, including one IC814 hijacker. Some civilians were collateral damage, unfortunately.
2. During the attack Pakistan shot down 2 Indian jets (confirmed) including the one Rafale, a very hyped and costly jet.
3. Pakistan targeted Indian military bases with missiles and drone. And eventually launched a ballistic missile towards Delhi (intercepted).
4. In response Indian bombed and damaged multiple PAF bases from North to South of Pakistan, with near impunity.
5. Nothing remotely similar on Indian side. Cease-fire few hours later, some violations happened afterwards, but it looks over.

I can't think of a better outcome for India than this. In total, Pakistan bagged two air-to-air kills. I am ok with that.

Oh guys of course we all forgot. It's PAKISTAN who started the Operation Tandoori Chicken on May 7 and started this whole shooting war. How could we ever miss this..

Tandoori chicken is a fine dish.

"Smell test" isn't have you make a proof. You're just saying things to compensate your ego from all the downed indian aircrafts with ample proofs of photos and videos.

That is fine. I have said from the beginning that this my personal hunch. You may disagree.

 

[xyz4321]

There is no proof of SAAB being damaged. Please stop reading from your Indian media and wait for neutral sources to do damage assessment. You seem like a reasonable guy and you know how bad our media is (both Pakistani and Indian side).

Yesterday, you claimed that you guys had hit a nuclear storage facility which turned out to be false:

Yesterday he claimed Sargodha AFB is hit and put a video of mountains.

Mountains in Sarghoda lolololol

 

[N00B]

The entire Indian air force was basically rendered useless within hours of its initial strike.

It wasn't, actually. If it were, PAF would be flying over Delhi right now.

We can tell simply from the PL-15Es recovered in enemy territory (AMRAAMs during Balakot) but a complete and damning lack of any BVR missiles from the Indian side.

Your aircraft can't even find a lock or any solution to fire. That is why you can only brag about your heavy platform, the SU-30MKI, doing nothing but dodging.

Right now the IAF is neutered as an effective force because it cannot fight a BVR battle.

The only thing India had established here is they have no real air cover.

My take, IAF jets were vulnerable as they were focused on targeting the camps. This made the job of PAF easier. If PAF were that superior to IAF as you are making it out to be, we would have seen more IAF jets going down over the next two days. The air battle has been intense.

Yesterday he claimed Sargodha AFB is hit and put a video of mountains.

Sargodha AFB has indeed been hit. The blast video was from Kirana hills, reported to be one of Pakistan's nuclear weapons storage site. Sargodha is the nearest base, which probably caused the confusion.

If this was an Indian attack, then it was kind of a message too. The blast site is just a few km away from the bunker according to OSINT accounts.

 

[manqiangrexue]

I agree India's performance isn't proportional to its budget. But you aren't factoring in a very important element here. Pakistan is a nuclear power. Numerical advantage stops being proportional once your opponent has nukes.

For example India cannot do a blockade of Karachi or do a ground invasion of Pakistan, ever. Other than non-state sub-conventional proxies like BLA/TTP, the only conventional thing India can play here are AF and AD.

Pakistan wasn't worried about Indian nukes when it shot up the IAF. Try firing back.

Here's what happened -

Here's what India claims happened? LOL

1. India killed about 20 terrorists and their handlers, including one IC814 hijacker. Some civilians were collateral damage, unfortunately.

The civilians claim was confirmed by Pakistan. Where did you get that 20 terrorists were killed?

2. During the attack Pakistan shot down 2 Indian jets (confirmed) including the one Rafale, a very hyped and costly jet.

2 confirmed by the US; 3 initially admitted by India; 5 claimed by Pakistan.

3. Pakistan targeted Indian military bases with missiles and drone. And eventually launched a ballistic missile towards Delhi (intercepted).

OK

4. In response Indian bombed and damaged multiple PAF bases from North to South of Pakistan, with near impunity.

And would you say that the impunity is less, the same, or more than Pakistan's when they bombed Indian bases? Smell test? Leaning towards believing? LOL

5. Nothing remotely similar on Indian side.

Similar to what? Very light damage to structure, no damage to military equipment? Oh, I mean 1 truck down?

Cease-fire few hours later, some violations happened afterwards, but it looks over.

OK

I can't think of a better outcome for India than this.

How about not getting the IAF outclassed and then fighting to a draw on land missile exchange? I can think of plenty of better outcomes. For some countries, winning is a possible outcome.

In total, Pakistan bagged two air-to-air kills.

2-5.

I am ok with that.

You've got no choice LOL. Nobody asked you if you're ok with reality.

Tandoori chicken is a fine dish.

Tandoori Rafale is better.

That is fine. I have said from the beginning that this my personal hunch. You may disagree.

Based on nothing but wishes, which is just funny but expected.