Trump 2.0 official thread

dingyibvs

Senior Member
Because people have cottoned on to the fact that "Vietnam is China's alt account", since it was blasted by republican channels and made the rounds on twitter.
If/when the news comes out that India is just assembling Chinese parts, they will get the same treatment. However, I would imagine the US government would want to keep this suppressed both for the benefit of claiming a win and to keep India onside as a piece to use against China.
I wrote a post a couple weeks ago about how Vietnam, despite having never signed up to the BRI, is an exemplary member of it due to the BRI's real goal of integrating China deeply into the world's supply chain and how well integrated Vietnam's is to China's. I wonder if this could be an opportunity to do something similar to India. Integrate them into China's supply chain as well, let them earn some crumbs with low value added work and then sell them to America. If successful then it'd realize the goal of BRI, making it impossible for countries like India to cut off China without cutting off their own economic lifeline, and making it impossible for countries like the US to cut off China without also cutting off countries like India and Vietnam.
 

lcloo

Major
AI's view on US truckers and effect of Tariff on them.

There are approximately **3.5 million truck drivers** in the U.S., including both employee and self-employed drivers. Of these, **1.98 million** are employee truck drivers operating heavy and tractor-trailer vehicles.

As for the impact of **Trump's tariffs**, the trucking industry is already feeling the strain. The tariffs have led to a **sharp decline in imports**, triggering layoffs and reduced hours for truckers. Some trucking companies have even shut down altogether due to the **nosedive in freight traffic**, particularly imports from China. The National Retail Federation projects a **20% decline in imports overall** for the rest of the year, with Chinese goods potentially dropping by **up to 80%**. This means fewer shipments for truckers to transport, leading to **job insecurity and financial strain** across the industry.

The situation is still unfolding, but truckers are bracing for **long-term consequences** if the tariffs remain in place. Do you want to explore how this might affect consumer prices or supply chains further?
 

huemens

Junior Member
Registered Member

RoastGooseHKer

Junior Member
Registered Member
I wonder what the Japanese government's internal timetable of splitting from the US looks like. Historically Japan has been very sharp on sensing which way the wind is blowing and where the smoke's coming from.

I wouldn't be surprised if one of their contingencies around AR is; if China looks to be the overwhelming winner / US unable to respond then we inform the US that "all your Japanese base are belong to us", if the US is in a stronger position after the event then we stick with status quo.
This would follow their tradition of kicking someone while they're not looking and ingratiating themselves to the (new) powers that be.

South Korea again would be the slow kid on the block; unless China actively guides them through diplomacy, I would expect SK to be in a state of confusion and infighting for several months until it becomes blindingly obvious what the right choice is, and even then you will have US-Yoon loyalist fringe groups that refuse to accept reality.

Actually, should a US-Japan split occur, the biggest worry for China would be Japan seeking its own nuclear deterrence. That would put Beijing in a complicated spot of maybe having to choose whether to conduct a preventive war against Japan to coerce Japan from going nuclear (Israeli approach to Iran), or recognising Japan as a nuclear state with the hope of pushing US out of Asia. However, this would mean recognising Japan as another great power at China's doorstep. For China, whilst the US is the biggest geopolitical rival mainly from a material sense (and many Chinese actually respect the US due to its history, culture, political ideology, prosperity, etc.), a nuclear-armed Japan would be both a historical nemesis (ideology plus historical memories) and geopolitical rival. Or Beijing could try to work with Washington as part of a great power concert to try to preserve the status quo, but such approach would be difficult to pass the US Congress.
 

tygyg1111

Captain
Registered Member
Actually, should a US-Japan split occur, the biggest worry for China would be Japan seeking its own nuclear deterrence. That would put Beijing in a complicated spot of maybe having to choose whether to conduct a preventive war against Japan to coerce Japan from going nuclear (Israeli approach to Iran), or recognising Japan as a nuclear state with the hope of pushing US out of Asia. However, this would mean recognising Japan as another great power at China's doorstep. For China, whilst the US is the biggest geopolitical rival mainly from a material sense (and many Chinese actually respect the US due to its history, culture, political ideology, prosperity, etc.), a nuclear-armed Japan would be both a historical nemesis (ideology plus historical memories) and geopolitical rival. Or Beijing could try to work with Washington as part of a great power concert to try to preserve the status quo, but such approach would be difficult to pass the US Congress.
I think this is where North Korea would come in, as a bad cop, to threaten to nuke Japan if they moved towards developing nuclear weapons, whilst China would step in as the good cop to defuse the crisis and retain the nuclear status quo with some assurances for Japan and North Korea
 
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