This might well be the turning point in the balance of power between the two countries, but is very far from the collapse of the U.S. If I were making the decisions in China, I would not be seeking to maximize the damage, but to return to status quo while extracting a very large concession. It is still a long ways off from the final show down. What you want in this situation is to remain steady to keep the other guy from completely flipping the table. Time is on your side. Get concessions to accelerate your rise. Use this opportunity to make deals with the rest of the world. Trump has done enough damage to the U.S. all by himself. You don't want him to use this to make you the scapegoat, even to his own people.
This is not the final showdown, we are still running the Marathon.
I can understand that many Americans find it hard to grasp how abruptly the situation has escalated to this state—the sudden, total decoupling between China and the U.S. For countless people, whether in America or China, this has caused profound confusion and disbelief. Many hope this is temporary, that the two nations might resume their former coexistence. Others expect a gradual, managed decoupling of trade, allowing both sides time to adapt incrementally.
I must emphasize: had the events of
April 2nd not occurred—that is, had the U.S. not initiated this war against China—many within my circle (those long focused on Sino-U.S. rivalry) would likely have agreed that a gentle, phased decoupling was inevitable. The resulting pain would have been far milder.
But after
April 2nd, when Trump fired the first shot, everything changed. A return to the past is now impossible—even if America desired it, China no longer does. The rupture is irreversible.
I reiterate: the core issue is that the Western world lacks a true sense of
historical continuity. China, as a 5,000-year unbroken civilization, has long discerned the trajectory of Sino-U.S. relations. Before April 2nd, China harbored doubts. After April 2nd, clarity emerged—because China recognizes historical patterns and their consequences.
What you and many others fail to grasp is what
truly unfolded after April 2nd. You saw America’s attack, but not China’s counterstrike—a response invisible in Western media or even this forum. Once China retaliates, there is no turning back.
China has now begun dismantling the
foundations of U.S. hegemony. This is not about U.S. Treasury bonds (China has yet to fully deploy its leverage there). Instead, China is systematically deconstructing the mechanisms by which America controls and stratifies nations globally. These changes will not yield immediate results—such efforts demand over a decade of sustained action. A new world order is being forged.
Westerners, especially Americans, see today’s powerful China—its technology, housing, or culinary life—and cling to the delusion that China has stolen vast wealth from the U.S. Many assume that for every $10 theyspend, China pockets $5-$7. In reality, China typically earns just $1−$2 from that $10, which must cover raw materials, processing losses, and labor. The actual profit often amounts to a mere $0.05−$0.10.
It is on such margins that China has accumulated wealth and developed into what it is today. Yet Americans still accuse China of theft, demanding further concessions. They insist China not only refrain from profiting but subsidize the U.S. at a loss.
Americans fail to ask: If China cannot even make a profit, why would it continue trading with you? China could partner with others, letting them profit from America’s higher costs. But the U.S. rejects this, imposing secondary tariffs to force global decoupling from China. Washington seeks not just to halt trade with China but to isolate it entirely. Recall how the U.S. handled Japan: once Japan shifted industries to South Korea, Taiwan, mainland China, and Southeast Asia, America backed off. Japan sustained growth for 30 years through overseas industrial chains. Now, the U.S. denies China even this pathway.
Do Americans not realize this is a death sentence for others? As I’ve stated, China, as a hyper-scale nation, prioritizes stability—a monumental task requiring no expansionist ambitions, which would only hasten collapse. Yet America, desperate to preserve hegemony, aims to destroy China. Social chaos in a nation of China’s size could kill 20-80% of its population—equivalent to nuclear annihilation.
What do you think Chinese people will do once they grasp this? We will not beg. We will fight with guns. Eliminating the enemy is paramount. This is the reality. The events of April 2nd (and related actions) confirmed China’s fears: America will never tolerate its peaceful rise. Washington seeks China’s total destruction, dismissing its actions as mere “minor losses.” When America used smallpox-infected blankets to exterminate Native Americans, slaughtering tens of millions, it dismissed this as a “minor mistake,” later absolved by Thanksgiving turkeys and priestly confessions—all deaths deemed “God’s will.”
Of course, most ordinary people—Chinese or American—do not think this deeply. Many Americans simply want easier lives and revived dreams, never intending to harm billions of Chinese.
Those truly pulling the strings understand the stakes. Even Wall Street’s financiers may not grasp that U.S. policies threaten China’s survival; they merely view its 1.4 billion people as a “blood bag” for their profiteering.
See this clearly, and you realize China has no choice. America’s tactical retreats are merely setups for deadlier strikes. China will not yield. It will retaliate harder. Only when America suffers true agony—losing half its vitality—will it learn. Only then will it abandon delusions of victory and reckless war-mongering.
I grieve for ordinary Chinese and Americans caught in this crossfire. Such suffering is unnecessary. Yet sometimes, it is the price paid.
Forget returning to the past (neither Americans nor Chinese desire it). History’s wheels have turned irreversibly. As a Chinese saying goes: “An arrow shot cannot be retrieved.” China’s new trajectory is clear: to forge a world with diminished U.S. influence, severing Western-led control over the global system (a neo-colonial order), and usher in a genuine multipolar era.