Trump 2.0 official thread

supersnoop

Colonel
Registered Member
OnlyFans to another level-this Trump clownshow is exhausting me-hope it doesn't interfere with my upcoming fishing season.
I tried to avoid mentioning OnlyFans to spare the mental imagery of Hegseth and Vance together...

Breaking Points mentioned something similar to the tweet according to some former BOFA analyst that was on Bloomberg Podcast earlier today. So shortages and price hikes are coming to US shelves no matter what happens now.
The crazy thing is that it's not like the pandemic time was 100 years ago. There was already a taste of this.
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lcloo

Major
This is the impact of total decoupling with China. China will lose US$600 billion in sales opportunity, while US will lose retail sales opportunity of US$2 Trillion dollar.

That is $600 billion vs $2,000 billion. The party that will feel the most pain would be in US. Chinese seller can divert to domestic market or other global market albeit at much smaller volume, US however will be hard to find alternative suppliers.

Screenshot 2025-04-25 033137.jpg
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
China is taking the US to the cleaners.

Dumbasses over there really believed their own bs propaganda and thought themselves the undisputed hyperpower.

If China plays it's hand correctly, which is doing currently, this could be a Suez moment for the US. A bit too early to my liking tbh, but ofc I also never expected such idiotic US leadership so it kinda evens out I guess
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
This is the impact of total decoupling with China. China will lose US$600 billion in sales opportunity, while US will lose retail sales opportunity of US$2 Trillion dollar.

That is $600 billion vs $2,000 billion. The party that will feel the most pain would be in US. Chinese seller can divert to domestic market or other global market albeit at much smaller volume, US however will be hard to find alternative suppliers.

View attachment 150650

Yeah, exactly.

There is a big difference in B2B and B2C, they are entirely different businesses.

That is the remarkable thing, as it does not seem all those billionaires who make up the Trump cabinet understand these nuts and bolts type of things.

LMFAO! Everybody!

:D:D:D
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
This is the impact of total decoupling with China. China will lose US$600 billion in sales opportunity, while US will lose retail sales opportunity of US$2 Trillion dollar.

That is $600 billion vs $2,000 billion. The party that will feel the most pain would be in US. Chinese seller can divert to domestic market or other global market albeit at much smaller volume, US however will be hard to find alternative suppliers.

View attachment 150650
That $2T is just retail activity, not including value of the service activity funded by retail income both direct and indirect. GDP is a measure of transaction, it's wealth flux, not wealth, $600B of imports is the source that all downstream flux derives from.

It's the same thing as how agriculture only contribute to 0.8% of US GDP, but their GDP will drop by a lot more than 0.8% if they lose all agriculture
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
China is taking the US to the cleaners.

Dumbasses over there really believed their own bs propaganda and thought themselves the undisputed hyperpower.

If China plays it's hand correctly, which is doing currently, this could be a Suez moment for the US. A bit too early to my liking tbh, but ofc I also never expected such idiotic US leadership so it kinda evens out I guess

Yeah, exactly, could not agree more.

Who knows what the US was trying to do, as they obviously misplayed this so badly.

We could go back to the Biden years, and they could not do anything against China that stuck. In fact Raimondo joined the other side as a Huawei influencer.

What should have been a clean divorce, with the mutual total trade embargo, at least I thought so, has turned into a geopolitical debacle for the United States.

The most bizarre thing about that, is that China did not go out of its way to do this. It just happened, because Trump slapped on those zany tariffs in the most bizarre way.

The biggest losers are the United States and the DPP of Taiwan province.

The Russia Ukraine war has driven a wedge between the United States and Europe over Russia.

Now this trade war is driving a wedge between the United States and Europe with Japan over China.

On the issues of Russia and China, the United States finds themselves alone.

This trade war, the whole point was to confront China, with the US allies in tow, assuming that was the plan. Regardless if it was or if it was not, that is not possible anymore, the allies said no. Full stop.

When China slapped on those export restrictions on the rare earths on everybody, they naturally assumed that the US allies would be on the US side. That should be the case, of what they had in mind. That does not seem to be the case in reality, as the statements from the EU and Japan demonstrates.

That is the bottomline. The United States finds itself all alone when dealing with Russia or China. The US allies are drifting somewhere and unavailable at the moment.

:D
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
That $2T is just retail activity, not including value of the service activity funded by retail income both direct and indirect. GDP is a measure of transaction, it's wealth flux, not wealth, $600B of imports is the source that all downstream flux derives from.

It's the same thing as how agriculture only contribute to 0.8% of US GDP, but their GDP will drop by a lot more than 0.8% if they lose all agriculture

Everything is so over leveraged that once news of empty shelves actually hit, the whales will start panic selling. If Trump doesn’t set Navarro on fire and toss him off Trump Tower by then we know that merit based promotion is truly dead in DC.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member

The trade war’s wave of retail shortages will hit U.S. consumers in stages. Here’s when​

Published Thu, Apr 24 2025

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:oops:



Okay, just one comment.

A lot of messages the past two days in this thread, had the, "Let's twist the knife!" sentiment.

That I disagree with, because, we do not have to do that.

This time the knife twist itself.

There is a political element to this, and if you go actively twist the knife, you expend political capital.

So in my mind, why expend political capital, when it is going to happen anyways.

This article tells us the schedule how this thing will breakdown, aka how the knife will twist. By itself.

Shortages will lead to production problems, if this is not fixed.

Inflation in the US will be going up probably soon. It is the tariff.

And look, China did not have to do a thing, other than issue statements and adjust tariff rates against the United States.

:)
 
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