If the trend continues and the US and China don't reach
an "agreement" or whatever that means in the White House these days, in 90 days we are going to see the biggest fall in trade between two nations in peace time, ever, I think the US could suffer a
huge supply shock, at the level of an embargo.
The irony is that I think this fall in the US trade deficit will only embolden Trump and Ron Vara to go ahead with the rest of their global "reciprocal tariffs" plans.
I think the only reason why Trump back down for 90 days in his global reciprocal tariffs was China retaliation that his stooges associated to the turmoil in the bond market, that made Trump panic and he called Bessent,
who was NOT included in the reciprocal tariffs initial plans and HE convinced Trump to give him 90 days to make deals, he bought the US economy and markets 90 days before the crash.
Probably in the middle of the protests of Ron Vara, who is just waiting these 90 days to continue with his plan of global tariffs. In another words, has China not retaliated against the US, Ron Vara would had gotten his way for global tariffs.
I think the mistake that China did was not letting US to
EAT the Ron Vara global tariffs, that would have caused more damage to the US economy than any retaliation.