Should China respect sanctions on Iran?

[bladerunner]

So we all agree to a wimpy trade sanction, which has been so watered down by China, its virtually useless. Iran, will at some stage a limited nuclear arsenal, and as long as she behaves herself we are prepared to look the other way?
Not only is a nuclear armed Iran destabilising, she could use it to back her aspirations for regional dominance, reestablishing her once grand Persian Empire. (influence anyway)
One day she might even bite China in the bum, with aspirations of leading the Muslims in Central Asia Xinjiang even. You never know.

 

[xywdx]

So we all agree to a wimpy trade sanction, which has been so watered down by China, its virtually useless. Iran, will at some stage a limited nuclear arsenal, and as long as she behaves herself we are prepared to look the other way?
Not only is a nuclear armed Iran destabilising, she could use it to back her aspirations for regional dominance, reestablishing her once grand Persian Empire. (influence anyway)
One day she might even bite China in the bum, with aspirations of leading the Muslims in Central Asia Xinjiang even. You never know.

Iran is enriching Uranium up into the 20% range, that's still far from the weapon grade of 80%+.
I do believe they have the right to build their own Breeder Generator/Research Reactor, it's an important technological step to becoming a first world nation.
The fact that they are advancing in this area faster than others does raise some questions, but there isn't anything solid to justified most of the fears I've heard.

In any case I believe it's more important to actually track all the uranium they enrich, cause if it's really 1.5kg a year then it will take them decades to produce enough Uranium to make something on par with Little Boy way back in WWII.

 

[Lion]

So we all agree to a wimpy trade sanction, which has been so watered down by China, its virtually useless. Iran, will at some stage a limited nuclear arsenal, and as long as she behaves herself we are prepared to look the other way?
Not only is a nuclear armed Iran destabilising, she could use it to back her aspirations for regional dominance, reestablishing her once grand Persian Empire. (influence anyway)
One day she might even bite China in the bum, with aspirations of leading the Muslims in Central Asia Xinjiang even. You never know.

Stop try to exaggerate things.. An Nuclear arm Iran is not as serious as you stated. Iran need China and China need Iran oil. Iran regime will surely stop those kind of Islamic spread to China as both are partner. Do u sabotage yr needed partner? I think Iran is just looking for its existence. They are so poor and what yr so called Grand Persian plan is those non existence idea drive up by western people.

Iran feel threaten by American invasion as they don't want to end up like Iraq but with atomic bomb, they will give an ultimate to US. Invaded me and we will have a kamikaze.

As I say again. Iran will not be stupid to start throwing nuclear tip missile around and ask for its own destruction. Western nuclear arsenal are far superior than what Iran have even for the next 100 years.

 

[jantxv]

Some might say, even within China, it might be a strategic mistake to rely too heavily upon the good behavior of shaky regimes.

Geoff Dyer
The Financial Times , 4 March 2010

...China’s position on Iran is often described as a choice between its expanding energy interests in the country and its desire to maintain a solid relationship with the US, which has been the anchor of its foreign policy for several decades.

However, Beijing also has to weigh up a growing web of other interests in the Middle East which could have some influence on its approach to sanctions.

Indeed, parts of the foreign policy establishment in China are warning that it would be against the government’s interests in the Middle East to get too close to Iran....According to diplomats, Beijing has been quietly lobbied by Saudi Arabia, which has been its biggest supplier of oil for most of the past decade and which has warned of the dangers a nuclear Iran would pose to Middle East stability.

Chinese analysts admit that a nuclear arms race in the Middle East could pose a risk to its energy security.

There is also the added question of China’s Muslim population. After the riots in Xinjiang last summer, China was criticised for its treatment of its Uighur minority by Turkey and by two Iranian ayatollahs.

Given how sensitive Beijing is about political radicalisation of Muslims in Xinjiang by people outside the country, “the incident was a warning to Beijing that it must exercise caution when dealing with Iran’s political and religious elites”, according to a recent report by the International Crisis Group.

Iran is a religious revolutionary government that funds organizations with weaponry and training that espouse their own religious leanings. Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command to name just a few.

And now yet another nation in upheaval on China's Western frontier. This time Kyrgyzstan is in full revolution. There is a schism in China between those with business interests in Iran VS those with security concerns in Xinjiang. With the formerly secular and predominately Muslim ex-Soviet States becoming radicalized through Iranian financing and training, how long until the violence encompasses Xinjiang?

 

[solarz]

And now yet another nation in upheaval on China's Western frontier. This time Kyrgyzstan is in full revolution. There is a schism in China between those with business interests in Iran VS those with security concerns in Xinjiang. With the formerly secular and predominately Muslim ex-Soviet States becoming radicalized through Iranian financing and training, how long until the violence encompasses Xinjiang?

Did Iran say anything on the Xinjiang riots? While Turkey hypocritically accused China of genocide, Iran remained silent on the issue. This means that Iran has a strong interest in maintaining good relations with China.

Besides, Muslims aren't a united front. What interest does Iran have in promoting separatism in Xinjiang?

Speaking of shaky regimes, at least those authoritarian regimes last longer than 8 years, and don't have to bow to the whims of popular opinion that can be influenced by something as irrelevant as sex scandals.

 

[pla101prc]

one of the down side to iran acquiring nuclear capability and "gets away with it" is that other countries will be compelled to do the same. but that's about the only one i am concerned with. as for iran becoming a regional power...you have to accept it with an open mind. if the US was so narrow minded as to not accept China for its rising status then we'll all be in a really crappy situation right now.

again balance of power is the order of the day, i am sure israel will be enough to keep iran in check for quite a while.

 

[bladerunner]

@pla101prc

neocons are no longer in power in washington.

Theyre down but not out. If Obamas grand plans flop, they will be back with a vengence

@xywdx

Iran is enriching Uranium up into the 20% range, that's still far from the weapon grade of 80%+.

Apparently the process becomes quicker the further along one has progressed

@Lion

Stop try to exaggerate things..

One should be prepared to look at a worse case scenario. I wouldnt be surprised that the powers in China, regret giving the blue prints of an atomic weapon to Pakistan. If Iran achieves nucleur status, that makes 3 basket cases/highly unstable countries in their vincinity.
Meanwhile Iran is one of the biggest supporters of terrorists, a problem which should be addressed.

You may be unaware with the fact that apparently Chinas oil imports from Iran have been declining, while imports from Saudia Arabia have increased dramatically, according to a recent article.


@jantxv

I'm in full agreement with the article you posted.

@Solarz

What interest does Iran have in promoting separatism in Xinjiang?

Geopolitics and Iran knows when to bite its tongue.

 

[bladerunner]

pla101prc;117891]

one of the down side to iran acquiring nuclear capability and "gets away with it" is that other countries will be compelled to do the same. but that's about the only one i am concerned with. as for iran becoming a regional power...you have to accept it with an open mind. if the US was so narrow minded as to not accept China for its rising status then we'll all be in a really crappy situation right now.

Iran is currently getting away with it, chiefly through the self interested policies of China and Russia

 

[ccL1]

The Uighurs of Xinjiang (who cause China the most trouble) are majority Sunni and Sufi Islamic people. Iran is a majority Shia. There is a big difference and schism between the two. To say that one day Iran will bite China back by aiding Xinjiang is preposterous. Islam isn't a united religion.

I think a nuclear Iran will make life interesting in the world, to say the least. China should continue its policy of blocking sanctions as much as possible, since we know that no country will take the initiative in invading Iran. The costs are just too great.

 

[bladerunner]

he Uighurs of Xinjiang (who cause China the most trouble) are majority Sunni and Sufi Islamic people. Iran is a majority Shia. There is a big difference and schism between the two. To say that one day Iran will bite China back by aiding Xinjiang is preposterous. Islam isn't a united religion.

Sorry I meant, the policy of letting Iran become a limited nuclear power may come back and bite China on the bum. And who was able to predict that Stalin would get into bed with Hitler?
or from memory I think Israel was helping Iran during the Iraq Iran war

I think a nuclear Iran will make life interesting in the world, to say the least. China should continue its policy of blocking sanctions as much as possible, since we know that no country will take the initiative in invading Iran. The costs are just too great.

I never said anything about invading Iran. I said we as (in Westerners) should bomb the nuclear installations. If Iran was to retaliate through the use of her proxies, attacking Israel, or any other activities, that undermine the status quo in the Middle East, then we should start to bomb her infrastructure, starting with her oil producing ability, switching to civilian infrastructure if need be.

What would be interesting, is watching China's (to whom I regard as the fly in the ointment through her blocking actions) reaction when all her $billions investments in Iran are blown to pieces, but then she can blame nobody but herself for blocking the sanctions.