Re: The End of the Carrier Age?
It's not easy to sink a carrier from the air. Right now maybe only the US can do that. Maybe not even. An entire naval wing's F-18's can launch 192 Harpoons at the same time, and that's assuming all 48 F-18's are in the air at the same time and all 48 tasked with strike missions, which doesn't happen in real life. The escorts could maybe contribute a dozen or two more. Realistically a US carrier group can maybe muster 100 or so Harpoons simultaneously. Not nearly enough IMO to overwhelm a putative PLAN CVBG. You would probably need a few dozen missiles landing on target and exploding as planned just to sink the carrier itself, to speak nothing of the ones that had to be sacrificed for the rest to get past the escort air defense screen.
A naval UCAV would probably not be able to carry as much as an F-18 as long a distance, meaning you could probably only load 2 Harpoons at a time. Or if the UCAV itself is the weapon (like the Harpy), only one warhead at a time. The number of subs launching swarm attacks on a carrier would have to be prohibitively enormous. Even a ship the size of a carrier used to launch UCAV swarms will not likely be able to mount enough numbers, unless it can store, maintain and launch several hundred of them simultaneously.
I think the key to a carrier's obselecence is an ultra quiet submarine launching Shkval-type supercavitating torpedoes equipped with terminal guidance systems. A single submarine launching a one-shot brace of 4 to 6 of these missiles could sink a carrier in under a minute from launch. This type of weapon is currently being researched and is within reach for several of the world's navies.
An alternative would be hypersonic antiship missiles which current air defense technology is probably incapable of intercepting. The rumored Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile IMO is much ado about nothing, especially when several USN ships are being or have been equipped with the SM-3, which can be deployed in far larger numbers than the 2nd Artillery can deploy ASBM's.
I think submarines that can deploy UCAVs are what will truly make carriers obsolete. We're talking decades here, but it's only a matter of time before UCAVs can do pretty much everything a carrier's manned jets can do. Cruise missiles can be deployed from submarines, so UAVs shouldn't be much of a problem. The advantages in terms of survivability are enormous. Have you all seen that fake video of a submarine firing an F-15 out of the water? Well, I think one day something like that may very well become a reality.
It's not easy to sink a carrier from the air. Right now maybe only the US can do that. Maybe not even. An entire naval wing's F-18's can launch 192 Harpoons at the same time, and that's assuming all 48 F-18's are in the air at the same time and all 48 tasked with strike missions, which doesn't happen in real life. The escorts could maybe contribute a dozen or two more. Realistically a US carrier group can maybe muster 100 or so Harpoons simultaneously. Not nearly enough IMO to overwhelm a putative PLAN CVBG. You would probably need a few dozen missiles landing on target and exploding as planned just to sink the carrier itself, to speak nothing of the ones that had to be sacrificed for the rest to get past the escort air defense screen.
A naval UCAV would probably not be able to carry as much as an F-18 as long a distance, meaning you could probably only load 2 Harpoons at a time. Or if the UCAV itself is the weapon (like the Harpy), only one warhead at a time. The number of subs launching swarm attacks on a carrier would have to be prohibitively enormous. Even a ship the size of a carrier used to launch UCAV swarms will not likely be able to mount enough numbers, unless it can store, maintain and launch several hundred of them simultaneously.
I think the key to a carrier's obselecence is an ultra quiet submarine launching Shkval-type supercavitating torpedoes equipped with terminal guidance systems. A single submarine launching a one-shot brace of 4 to 6 of these missiles could sink a carrier in under a minute from launch. This type of weapon is currently being researched and is within reach for several of the world's navies.
An alternative would be hypersonic antiship missiles which current air defense technology is probably incapable of intercepting. The rumored Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile IMO is much ado about nothing, especially when several USN ships are being or have been equipped with the SM-3, which can be deployed in far larger numbers than the 2nd Artillery can deploy ASBM's.
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