broadsword
Brigadier
It will be more intense once her homegrown EUV machines start to be distributed to the fabs.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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It will be more intense once her homegrown EUV machines start to be distributed to the fabs.
EUV (litho) is just one facet. The range is really massive across the entire process and production chain -- equipment, etching, fab, packaging, chemicals (photoresists) and the end products in mem, CPU, GPU, product-specific chips (for EVs among many others) and in the mass usage Cloud and AI spaces.
This a seismic sea-change event in a mammoth sector that until a few years ago was happily importing chips, standards and equipment from the West and allies. Think about this: China imports more in chips than oil. And that is on top of licensing to companies like Qualcomm that derived over 50% of its earnings from China.
All that money and energy will be directed to domestic companies in the coming years. This will impact China like the entry into WTO 25 years. I can't imagine a more exciting time to be following Chinese tech!
I keep seeing this stupid propaganda on Youtube that China is making a mistake in investing in manufacturing instead of fueling consumption and that means it will be stuck on middle income nation status. The opposite is true. Just look at countries like Venezuela who sat on their laurels of oil revenue and gladly imported everything. Where are they now? The only way out of middle income status for China is to move up the value chain. The bet on renewables (solar, wind) and EVs was a masterstroke. Next stop will be the aerospace sector and semiconductors.
Only by going up the value chain can you get out of the middle income trap. The propagandists are worried that China will start taking their share.
Exactly. It is both cope and a deliberate lie. The middle income trap doesn't come lack of consumption which is a symptom not a cause.
What China is doing is exactly the cure for this so-called trap. Increase local productivity and innovation:
Plus China needs to build capacity in everything that could be embargoed. There is no overcapacity here because domestic chips, aircraft, aero-engines, software, etc. are needed to support domestic comsumption that will be pivoting away from risky tech that could be embargoed. This might create overcapacity for the rest of the world but not for China:
When people criticized you especially the collective west, you know you're doing it right.
Pretty much going up the value chain means you need to generate a lot of IP in new industrial sectors like Semi, EV, Renewable etc.
Because if you think about it IP is pretty much a global tax/rent on the whole industrial sector. For example Huawei getting paid a share for every 5g phone, modem, antenna and whatever that is being sold. If you don't create the new IP it means you have to buy/license it potentially giving away a share of your profit for that IP license.
But not only that you also have to compete with the IP holding nations on price which is highly unlikely you would be able to. Because you probably first have to buy machines from those IP holding nations funding their new R&D before you yourself can start making the machine one needs to create new machines of one's own design. This is the shitty loop middle income nations get stuck into and the only way out is to enforce tech transfer if your markets are big enough or steal the IP or machines.
It's 2024 and the US is trying to ban China advancing in micro semiconductors and AI. Yet people are still talking about China being in a middle income trap like Brazil or something.
I wonder if they are just stupid or if their prejudice against China is just that great that they become literally blind.
The need for copuim is pretty strong for a lot of people.
It was supplemented by Hopium as well, the combination is perfect.