PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

[supersnoop]

I’m not “former USMC”; I’m an ex-Marine!
Since you seem to have drunk the Kool-Aid, you’ll understand the distinction.
You say that “you heard”? So, you’re using “they said” as your source? Which manual was the guide for your thesis?
Another one for the list; bye!

I am on your ignore list, so you won't get this, but I will put it up anyway
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This is something I have seen written about many times over the years.

Also, I think my joke didn’t go in the way I intended, did not mean any offence. To be honest, I don't really know what you mean...

 

[ashnole]

A lot of people talk about how Guam and the 1IC and 2IC chain are like "onions" or layers the PLA but what they don't realize is that after a few weeks of conflict the US will be facing an onion of defences in the pacific that they would have to get through to be able to actually break up a blockade of Taiwan.

Lets say its 2030 :
In the first few weeks the PLA would seek to destroy all forward deployed US/JP assets in the 1IC. This includes Okinawa, most of Japan's bases and any US naval assets that are within 1000 Km of the Chinese coast. They will absolutely be able to accomplish this due to the fires and sensor complex they have built over decades.

After this is taken care of the PLA can have a couple dozen warships, destroyers, frigates with at least 100-150 carrier based aircraft of mostly J-35s and just under a thousand J-20s supplied by YY-20 with standoff weapons and of course land based fire generation capability that the US won't have anything near an equivalent to that will be a wall of sorts that the US would have to get though just to break up a blockade of Taiwan. Even if they do get through that wall they will then have to face the aforementioned fires and ISR complex in the 1IC and the closer and deeper they go they face exponentially more land based fires and they give the PLA more accurate targeting data and their fires and defences are exhausted from going through that wall AND are further away from their main supply base Guam meaning they will mainly reply on a vulnerable aux fleet.

Whilst this is happening Guam is getting hammered and saturate with HGVs, CJ-100s, DFs etc which if the Americans loose then they will loose their central nervous system.

Basically just imagine if your the US. After your FOBs in Japan/ Okinawa are destroyed you have to make sure you miraculously can get through a wall of defences whilst under heavy land based fires , after you do get through this you face exponentially more fires.

The Pentagon is spending nearly $1 Trillion every year just so that, a decade down the road, US & allied militaries will simply sit still and quietly eat Chinese missiles lmao.

 

[Biscuits]

The Pentagon is spending nearly $1 Trillion every year just so that, a decade down the road, US & allied militaries will simply sit still and quietly eat Chinese missiles lmao.

Tyranny of distance. The money US spent will make it very difficult for China to invade them, but that's why China isn't gonna do that. On the other hand, the money China spent also makes it near impossible for US to invade.

Corruption is also a significant issue. US military buildup is unprecedently large and aggressive, but China is also conducting it's own buildup to counter that.

 

[aqh]

Do we have any estimates for how long Taiwan can last whilst blockaded.

How long will it take to eat up all their food reserves and exhaust their energy supplies. Got from google that 79.6% of Taiwan's electricity generation came from fossil fuels 43.4% natural gas, 34.8% coal, 1.4% oil which all rely on imports and whatnot.

 

[vincent]

Do we have any estimates for how long Taiwan can last whilst blockaded.

How long will it take to eat up all their food reserves and exhaust their energy supplies. Got from google that 79.6% of Taiwan's electricity generation came from fossil fuels 43.4% natural gas, 34.8% coal, 1.4% oil which all rely on imports and whatnot.

Fuel (crude oil and natural gas) depots and power plants can be blown up. Can't even cook instant noodles

 

[aqh]

That means the US would have like a month or maybe 2 to actually break up the Chinese blockade.

 

[vincent]

That means the US would have like a month or maybe 2 to actually break up the Chinese blockade.

20 days according to @Patchwork_Chimera
@Patchwork_Chimera, can I share your write up on this? Thanks

 

[ashnole]

Tyranny of distance. The money US spent will make it very difficult for China to invade them, but that's why China isn't gonna do that. On the other hand, the money China spent also makes it near impossible for US to invade.

Corruption is also a significant issue. US military buildup is unprecedently large and aggressive, but China is also conducting it's own buildup to counter that.

No one's talking here about US invading PRC or vice-verse. All I'm saying is that in all of these hypothetical scenarios posters post here make it seem like it's a child's play for the PLA to destroy the s### out of US' & its allies' military bases within the FIC. As if they don't have intelligence agencies that won't pre-warn them of a PLA 'bolt from the blue' strike, as if they won't disperse their military assets, as if they don't possess air defence & countermeasures capability, as if every missile in a PLARF/PLAAF missile salvo will find its target, as if PLA has a cheat code or something that gives them tens of thousands of missiles and as if they won't strike back in kind and simply eat missiles lol. Come on guys!

 

[Biscuits]

No one's talking here about US invading PRC or vice-verse. All I'm saying is that in all of these hypothetical scenarios posters post here make it seem like it's a child's play for the PLA to destroy the s### out of US' & its allies' military bases within the FIC. As if they don't have intelligence agencies that won't pre-warn them of a PLA 'bolt from the blue' strike, as if they won't disperse their military assets, as if they don't possess air defence & countermeasures capability, as if every missile in a PLARF/PLAAF missile salvo will find its target, as if PLA has a cheat code or something that gives them tens of thousands of missiles and as if they won't strike back in kind and simply eat missiles lol. Come on guys!

The problem for the US is that if they wanna go to Taiwan (and that's what this thread is about, a potential US invasion of Taiwan), they need to put their ships in a predictable way, because otherwise China just mops US' KMT friends and makes Taiwan much more fortified and harder to take.

There's only so many ways an US force can break a blockade of the 1st island chain. By coming at it head on, in sufficient concentrations to make a breakthrough.

So of course US can disperse everything and engage in guerilla naval warfare past the 2nd island chain. But then the KMT troops are dead from encirclement, and there's now a ton of ground based defenses on Taiwan. If US want to come back for it at a later date, they would need orders of magnitudes more troops to capture Taiwan, compared to if they can break out the KMT soldiers and use them like the Russians are using the Donbass republics.

 

[ashnole]

The problem for the US is that if they wanna go to Taiwan (and that's what this thread is about, a potential US invasion of Taiwan), they need to put their ships in a predictable way, because otherwise China just mops US' KMT friends and makes Taiwan much more fortified and harder to take.

There's only so many ways an US force can break a blockade of the 1st island chain. By coming at it head on, in sufficient concentrations to make a breakthrough.

So of course US can disperse everything and engage in guerilla naval warfare past the 2nd island chain. But then the KMT troops are dead from encirclement, and there's now a ton of ground based defenses on Taiwan. If US want to come back for it at a later date, they would need orders of magnitudes more troops to capture Taiwan, compared to if they can break out the KMT soldiers and use them like the Russians are using the Donbass republics.

US (USAF bombers and long-range hypersonic missiles) can also come at China from different vectors. Over Bay of Bengal overflying Myanmar, over the Tibetan plateau overflying their major non-NATO ally Pakistan. There are a lot of options to open up various other sectors to stretch the PLA, options that surely won't be limited to a predictable easterly direction.