PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[james smith esq]

With what assets will China inflict catastrophic damage on the Indian heartland that isn't nuclear in nature? Their one real lever was called Pakistan and that place is basically sinking into stagnation and civil strife; it will no longer be able to keep up with India if the US is serious about propping up India.

Sever needn’t be catastrophic, simply militarily, economically, or politically significant. From where I’m standing, China could basically reduce India’s navy to nothing with a strategic-bombing campaign; no Indian naval base or warship in the Bay of Bengal or Andaman Sea would be left intact. In this scenario, the YJ-12 would figure prominently, along with the CJ-100, and other H-6J/K LACMs. This is something India cannot do in kind.
Are you a Kanpurian Candidate?

 

[Hood_Rat]

Sever needn’t be catastrophic, simply militarily, economically, or politically significant. From where I’m standing, China could basically reduce India’s navy to nothing with a strategic-bombing campaign; no Indian naval base or warship in the Bay of Bengal or Andaman Sea would be left intact. In this scenario, the YJ-12 would figure prominently, along with the CJ-100, and other H-6J/K LACMs. This is something India cannot do in kind.
Are you a Kanpurian Candidate?

Look at a map. How are they going to tag Indian naval assets operating in the Indian Ocean from the Tibetan plateau or Yunnan?

Besides almost every available modern blue water and long range aerial asset in the inventory is going to be tasked to crack open Japan or the Philippines.

 

[james smith esq]

Look at a map. How are they going to tag Indian naval assets operating in the Indian Ocean from the Tibetan plateau or Yunnan?

Besides almost every available modern blue water and long range aerial asset in the inventory is going to be tasked to crack open Japan or the Philippines.

Learn to read, child!
Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.
Yes, from Yunnan!
Assets will be tasked with strategically significant objectives.
Also, those same DF-21s and 26s that will put Guam at risk will also reduce Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea assets to ashes!
Additionally, there is no guarantee that India won’t either sink or burn their own navy out of, characteristically Indian, incompetence!
Your sad fantasy that China will passively suffer from Indian aggression reveals the smallness of both your psyche and the nation that produces the circumstances which generated it! From your posts, what shows is your intention to back-stab China!
How ‘bout you go feed some malnourished children; India has more of those than the rest of the world, combined!

 

[luosifen]

Any Indian aggression against China can be dealt with by Western Theater Command who are fully capable of handling India without Pakistan (see 1962), that's pretty much their only mission. China doesn't need to be restricted to symmetrical responses where Indian navy needs to be countered with Chinese navy. Indian blockades of inbound material to China can also be reciprocated with diversion of fresh water sources from the Himalayas, in order to deliver the message that they can't threaten China's existence without serious consequences to themselves.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Any Indian aggression against China can be dealt with by Western Theater Command who are fully capable of handling India without Pakistan (see 1962), that's pretty much their only mission. China doesn't need to be restricted to symmetrical responses where Indian navy needs to be countered with Chinese navy. Indian blockades of inbound material to China can also be reciprocated with diversion of fresh water sources from the Himalayas, in order to deliver the message that they can't threaten China's existence without serious consequences to themselves.

The response to an ongoing blockade isn't constructing a water diversion project. It's, you know, bombardment. Part of what WTC does.

 

[james smith esq]

The response to an ongoing blockade isn't constructing a water diversion project. It's, you know, bombardment. Part of what WTC does.

Any Indian aggression against China can be dealt with by Western Theater Command who are fully capable of handling India without Pakistan (see 1962), that's pretty much their only mission. China doesn't need to be restricted to symmetrical responses where Indian navy needs to be countered with Chinese navy. Indian blockades of inbound material to China can also be reciprocated with diversion of fresh water sources from the Himalayas, in order to deliver the message that they can't threaten China's existence without serious consequences to themselves.

Actually, I should‘ve recognized the troll as a troll, earlier.
I apologize for feeding trolls!
Y’all know which list she’s goin’ to!

 

[vincent]

There really isn't. The combined rail and road routes in Eurasia combined have the rough throughput of just the port of Shanghai and Tianjin. The PRC will have to burn through its strategic commodity reserves which are 1-2 years of peacetime consumption. This can probably be stretched to 4 years with wartime rationing.

The PLA will need to inflict a decisive defeat on the enemy naval coalition at sea to secure the SLOCs in <4 years which is doable. Naturally it's best if this is done sooner rather than later to ensure the post war economic recovery isn't knee capped.

If China's sea line of communications are cut, the Factory of the World will no longer produce shit for the world. The resource requirement for China's own population is much less than what's consumed now.

 

[james smith esq]

Okay, so the “Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario” thread has been closed. Oh, well!

I’d like to suggest this: although it would imply an arms-race, I’d think that China should learn that you’ll have to fight with what you have. The pace of operations cannot be hindered by depending on war-time production, at least not for major weapons platforms, systems, or ordinance.

I think I’d already suggested that China learn from the lowly treatment and poor payment of Russian troops; this is a recipe for exactly what’s happened. The one thing that purchases the “loyalty“ of the average ‘Muruhcuhn’ idiot soldier, sailor, airman, and Marine is that, even on a private’s pay, they can afford to participate in circus AmeriKKKa, and their bread is free!

Actually, I’m fairly certain that PLA leadership has long-since been aware of these factors!

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

There really isn't. The combined rail and road routes in Eurasia combined have the rough throughput of just the port of Shanghai and Tianjin. The PRC will have to burn through its strategic commodity reserves which are 1-2 years of peacetime consumption. This can probably be stretched to 4 years with wartime rationing.

The PLA will need to inflict a decisive defeat on the enemy naval coalition at sea to secure the SLOCs in <4 years which is doable. Naturally it's best if this is done sooner rather than later to ensure the post war economic recovery isn't knee capped.

You seem to have a complete lack of understanding of the distribution of the types of goods that are imported/exported and the geographic origins/destinations of these routes. Not only do export routes to Europe/Americas no longer matter, the import routes for the materials used in production of export goods bound for Europe/Americas also do not matter. China can be considered effectively self-sufficient in terms of strategic materials provided Russia/Iran/Pakistan remains friendly and Central Asia friendly/neutral.

If you are actually aware of the what types of natural/mineral/energy resources are required to sustain a prolonged wartime economy, and the geographic distribution of the production and reserves for these goods, you would see that it is the US/EU that would have a much more difficult time sourcing strategic materials. Apart from rare earths which is by far the most well known and often discussed, it is only one of several strategic minerals that the US/Western Europe would encounter difficulty securing. Among them, the material that will give the biggest headache to the US would be tungsten.

Look at a map. How are they going to tag Indian naval assets operating in the Indian Ocean from the Tibetan plateau or Yunnan?

Besides almost every available modern blue water and long range aerial asset in the inventory is going to be tasked to crack open Japan or the Philippines.

Geopolitical reality trumps military capabilities. Don't be fooled by Indian/Western media designed for consumption by the masses. Indian elites are only motivated by self-interest. During any kind of Sino-American WestPac conflict, the only action we will see from India are loud empty rhetoric, self-promoting media for domestic consumption about how India will become the world's strongest superpower even more rapidly due to the two actual superpowers fighting each other, and twisting the arms of the US government for economic concessions and "charitable donations," - all the while engaging in smuggling strategic materials to both sides conducted through shell companies owned by the elites.

In some bizarre alternate reality where India does participate, the PLA will not be targeting India naval assets in the Indian Ocean. They will be prosecuting key infrastructure, industrial, and logistical targets in Northern India, while also making sure to take out a few villas owned by India elites to really speed up cessation of hostilities on India's parts. In an alternate reality where the PLA is really out to get India, there are certain things that can be done without even attacking India's territory.

 

[james smith esq]

[...]

In some bizarre alternate reality where India does participate, the PLA will not be targeting India naval assets in the Indian Ocean. They will be prosecuting key infrastructure, industrial, and logistical targets in Northern India, while also making sure to take out a few villas owned by India elites to really speed up cessation of hostilities on India's parts. In an alternate reality where the PLA is really out to get India, there are certain things that can be done without even attacking India's territory.

Oh, c’mon, man?!?!?
Can’t we just take-out all their naval bases on the eastern coast and all their ships in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea, pleeeeeeez?