If Cold War did not end, what would US and Soviet navies look like?

montyp165

Junior Member
That's quite a statement. What do you base this on? And just how friendly would have the PRC become(Military wise) with the USA if the Cold war continued?

I'm not really sure.

From several books I've read on the subject Ronald Reagan envisioned a modernized PLA with M60A3 level tanks and F-16 level fighters as an ideal deterrent force against the Soviet military, although the state of the Chinese economy and technical capabilities seriously impeded developments at the time.
 
That's quite a statement. What do you base this on? And just how friendly would have the PRC become(Military wise) with the USA if the Cold war continued?

I'm not really sure.

Like this entire thread, those statements are pure speculation.

However, prior to the break-up of the Soviet Union, the Chinese had received military and technological assistance in many areas from the US, France, and other Western nations. However, once the breakup of the USSR was imminent, there was no longer reason for the West to continue such assistance. The incident on June 4th simply provided a convenient excuse for the West to halt such aid and slam the arms embargo down on China.

Prior to the arms embargo, the United States and China were in the process of developing a fighter aircraft based off the J-7 airframe known as the Super-7, which was going to be powered by an American engine.

The JH-7 was originally designed to use British engines. There are claims that the J-10 was designed to use a Western engine as well, hence the resulting delay in the J-10 program following the arms embargo. Also, the HQ-7 was reverse engineered from the French Crotale during this time.
 

F40Racer

New Member
A continued Cold War would probably have prevented a lot of the phenomenal economic prosperity China is experiencing today, so we have to factor that into the equation. I think that this would have prevented a lot of rapid modernization that we are seeing today.
That's probably true.

A continued Cold War would definitely slow down PLAN's blue water agendas. Instead of refitting one full size carrier and planning for another one, the largest surface combatant China would build before 2020 would probably be a helicopter carrier similar to HMS Ocean, mainly for anti-submarine operations. Soviet subs was a substantial threat to Chinese military and civilian vessels during the 1980's, and that threat would continue to influence PLAN's strategies if USSR did not collapse.
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
That's probably true.

A continued Cold War would definitely slow down PLAN's blue water agendas. Instead of refitting one full size carrier and planning for another one, the largest surface combatant China would build before 2020 would probably be a helicopter carrier similar to HMS Ocean, mainly for anti-submarine operations. Soviet subs was a substantial threat to Chinese military and civilian vessels during the 1980's, and that threat would continue to influence PLAN's strategies if USSR did not collapse.

Overall the navy would be much less of a priority, because China would not be as economically developed as it is today, and therefore would have less strategic reason to build its power projection capability and the SLOCs would matter less. Moreover, with the Soviet threat in Siberia and the Maritime Provinces, the Army and Air Force would continue to get the lions share of resouces to prepare for what would have been a truly epic series of land battles, which would inevitably turn nuclear.

So USN/VMF, bigger, PLAN, smaller.

What would the effect of a continued Cold War have been on the formation of the EU and a common European defence policy? Perhaps current developments in that area would have been sped up and NATO would have been augmented/ largely replaced on land by a common EU military force?
 
There is no reason to think that the PRC's economic growth would have been negatively impacted to any degree by a continuation of the Cold War. Remember, economists today point to the the decade between 1979 and 1989 as the key time period during which the foundations for China's economic success was set. The existence of the USSR would not have lessened the West's demand for Chinese goods nor have affected China's ability to secure natural resources.

Militarily, I agree with Finn's assertion that the focus would remain on the land and air components centered on a defense of the Manchurian plains. The navy would primarily have remained as a coastal defense and ASW force.
 

F40Racer

New Member
Overall the navy would be much less of a priority, because China would not be as economically developed as it is today, and therefore would have less strategic reason to build its power projection capability and the SLOCs would matter less. Moreover, with the Soviet threat in Siberia and the Maritime Provinces, the Army and Air Force would continue to get the lions share of resouces to prepare for what would have been a truly epic series of land battles, which would inevitably turn nuclear.
Navy would be less priority, but maybe not much less. If Cold War continued, there would be at least one full size Soviet carrier (Kuznetsov-class or Ulyanovsk-class) and one Kiev-class "heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser" in the Pacific region, along with many advanced Soviet subs.

By this time China would have a market economy, and shipping lanes would be very important, especially in the South China sea. USSR had sent carrier Minsk down to South China sea before. During the 1980's, the Minsk was considered to be a very big threat.
 
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williamhou

Junior Member
On another note- If the USSR did not collapse, the arms embargo would most likely be lifted and there would have been more TOT between China and the West. On the other hand, it would be very unlikely to see Russian/Soviet tech/weapons in the PLA. China would have received Western assistance on J-10 and FC-1, and those aircrafts would be relying on GE engines. In fact, if the Super-7 program went through the FC-1 might never have even been conceived. With a lack of heavy multirole fighters, expect to see higher numbers of J-8 and JH-7, both with possibly western powerplants. Also, the lack of Kilos in the PLAN would most likely have impacted the development of China's diesel sub fleet (Yuan, Song) negatively. Instead of Sovs and the 052C/051C, China might have AEGIS ships. On the whole, the Russian flavor of the PLA would have been replaced with a more Western favor. Furthermore, Chinese indigenous weapons development would be behind where it is today, but reverse-engineered weapons systems would be more prevalent. China would probably not have WS-10 or any type of domestic advanced turbofan.


Quite likely. Probably about two medium or small size carrier with AV-8B and FA-18 on it as well, E-2C and E-3 may well be placed on the north close to walls of HQ-2 sites around Beijing, and HQ-2 are likely replaced by PAC-2,3. J-10 or FC-1 may be cancelled or based on American/European technology, instead they use F-16. Black Hawk would likely be the main army helicopter flying all over the country, since around 20 was already delivered and initial trial was highly satisfactory. Army and Air Force would be priority over Navy to counter USSR, and 094 may be using Trident II missile, JL-2 may never be developed.

Also many other things would have changed significantly, consider butterfly effect.
 

williamhou

Junior Member
Navy would be less priority, but maybe not much less. If Cold War continued, there would be at least one full size Soviet carrier (Kuznetsov-class or Ulyanovsk-class) and one Kiev-class "heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser" in the Pacific region, along with many advanced Soviet subs.

By this time China would have a market economy, and shipping lanes would be very important, especially in the South China sea. USSR had sent carrier Minsk down to South China sea before. During the 1980's, the Minsk was considered to be a very big threat.

The Minsk is a theme park in Shenzhen, China now :coffee:

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