Concern from Vietnam: Will China follow Russia's example and take "special military operation" against Vietnam?
You can see the anxiety of Vietnamese people. They are well aware that they are completely unable to bear the losses of modern warfare. But they are even more afraid of becoming a vassal of China.
It is not easy to avoid getting involved in conflicts while maintaining one's ability to "balance" among various forces.
But I don't like the conclusion part:
The conclusion is that in order to get rid of the fate of becoming a buffer zone and a Vassal state, it is necessary to seek external support and reduce the risk of dependence in addition to internal construction.
——Introducing external forces for 'balancing' is a high-risk behavior, and perhaps this move will lead them towards the outcome they are trying to avoid.
My first reaction to the article:
TM神经病啊?
Why should China even bother launching a so-called "SMO" to invade Vietnam, when Taiwan is already a big enough headache for Beijing to deal with?
If anything, the PLA can just take over those Vietnam-controlled islands in the SCS without even the need to invade mainland Vietnam from Yunnan and Guangxi. Whether that be done from buying those islands from Vietnam, or forcing Hanoi to surrender those islands (preferably with some concessions), or just blow up those military installations on those islands, land troops there and claim those islands under Chinese control.
Of course, the military option is certainly going to result in the PLAN and PLAAF clashing with the VPN and VPAF in the SCS and above the skies of Vietnam. But as long as:
1. The PLAAF is capable of shooting down the entirety of VPAF's warplanes and conduct effective SEAD across Vietnam,
2. The PLAN is capable of sinking all the ships and boats of the VPN and VCG, plus prevent the surviving units from ever venturing out of their bases,
3. The PLAGF is capable of holding and securing the Sino-Vietnamese border against attempts of infiltration, intrusion and assault by the VPA, and
4. The PLARF and PLASSF is capable of providing adequate and comprehensive support and cover for the PLAAF, PLAN and PLAGF -
Then I don't really see how launching a ground invasion of Vietnam is even possible to be on the table.
The only scenarios which could really make Beijing consider launching an all-out ground invasion of Vietnam are:
1. Vietnam unilaterally launches offensive operations against China and the PLA, plus conducting a ground invasion of China with the VPA, and/or
2. Vietnam opens her military bases and land to the US and NATO+, from which their assets are used to attack China and the PLA directly from those bases and staging grounds during the war.
Even so, I seriously doubt China would resort to a ground invasion straight away. The most likely actions by Beijing following the aforementioned actions by Vietnam would be to:
1. Push back the VPA's intrusion into Chinese territory back to the Sino-Vietnamese border, with the option to advance some distances into Vietnamese territory and hold the conquered regions as a buffer zone (if VPA's ground invasion do occur);
2. Conducting counteroffensive strikes against Vietnam by attacking and destroying Vietnamese military bases and stations,
3. Conduct strategic bombing against key Vietnamese infrastructures, and
4. Conduct a full blockade on Vietnam -
In order to force Hanoi to the negotiating table. A ground invasion by the PLAGF would therefore be the last option, only if Vietnam is stubbornly adamant on its offensive actions against China.
One more thing - Claiming that the Vietnamese people are afraid that Vietnam will become a vassal of China?
Sorry to say this, but - If Vietnam truly becomes a vassal state of China, then it can only be due to Vietnam's own doing. The same goes for certain East Asian countries that are currently thinking hard about how to fvck around with China.
Is the writer feeling that Vietnam is seen as less important in China's eyes, so that they wanna stir some pot of trouble to grab Beijing's attention? Man, so many desperate attention-seekers...