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Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Not exactly. Nothing is guaranteed at all. In any type of war, the enemy always gets a vote. It took an internal leak by Snowden, not Chinese MSS, or Russian FSB, to reveal how extensive the US spy network actually was. The Hong Kong fiaso was building up right under the CPC's nose, yet nothing was done about it. Success is never guaranteed.
The fact a press release was made and random nobodies are speculating openly about a supposed act of war against China shows that it was anything but.

Government isn't in the business of selling news stories with their intel. So of course it was Snowden, not China, that released the leaks.

Sponsoring traitors in HK was taking advantage of legal loopholes in HK itself. Even if the practice of using undeclared foreign agents to pay rioters and riot themselves is frowned on (yet it wasn't illegal until after the NSL), it isn't a clear cut act of war like an attack on China's military would be.

We should strive to be objective. Only fear mongers with ulterior motives think in terms of "enemies that are too strong and too weak at the same time". The enemy is dangerous in its own way, but it will not commit a brazen act of war that would be easily traced back to his homeland.

Fear mongering is stuff like believing the enemy is all powerful, hiding everywhere etc, it has never served any empire that implemented such thinking.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
Then why would they announce his death? I'd keep his demise on the down low and use that as a pretense to try and flush out other CIA assets. Why announce it and even say he was doing major work?
Too big to not notice. You can't hide everybody. For example, in Russia, a philosopher's daughter got killed via a car bomb and several pro-Russian journalists, If i recall correctly, were killed in a bomb package. For both cases, you can't hide them because they are too well-known.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
The fact a press release was made and random nobodies are speculating openly about a supposed act of war against China shows that it was anything but.
The problem comes down to proving it.
Government isn't in the business of selling news stories with their intel. So of course it was Snowden, not China, that released the leaks.
Sponsoring traitors in HK was taking advantage of legal loopholes in HK itself. Even if the practice of using undeclared foreign agents to pay rioters and riot themselves is frowned on (yet it wasn't illegal until after the NSL), it isn't a clear cut act of war like an attack on China's military would be.
Your counter was that such an assasination is easily traceable by the CPC and its intelligence organs, but I used Snowden's revelations and the Hong Kong Color Revolution as examples in which the CPC failed to catch and prevent US intelligence infiltration.
We should strive to be objective. Only fear mongers with ulterior motives think in terms of "enemies that are too strong and too weak at the same time". The enemy is dangerous in its own way, but it will not commit a brazen act of war that would be easily traced back to his homeland.

Fear mongering is stuff like believing the enemy is all powerful, hiding everywhere etc, it has never served any empire that implemented such thinking.
While you are absolutely correct in the fact that paranoia can paralyze one's thinking process, I also believe that one should simulatenously think outside of the box and not dismiss things as accidents, particularly high profile ones. Crazy stunts pulled by intelligence agencies and their precursors are common in political history.

At the end of the day, I think we should agree to disagree and just wait and see.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
The problem comes down to proving it.
If this was an attack, there would be perp footage which when combined with signal intelligence, cross referenced with data from inside CIA all but means perp names, origins, date of entry, murder weapon etc.

I'd agree that Americans would be on the top of the list to blame if the guy was killed while in a NATO country. But in order to attack someone inside China, you need hitmen to travel inside China first. The whole thing leaves paper trails.
Your counter was that such an assasination is easily traceable by the CPC and its intelligence organs, but I used Snowden's revelations and the Hong Kong Color Revolution as examples in which the CPC failed to catch and prevent US intelligence infiltration.
And as I explained, HK had issues because it was legal for other countries to send and hire agents there, prior to the NSL. If anyone can be blamed it is the lawmaker, it has nothing to do with intelligence capabilities. And as also explained, if China knew about US spying, they wouldn't blow it to US state media, they would just use the information. So Snowden being the "first" to blow something which more likely than not any major independent state agency knew doesn't say anything about intelligence capabilities.
While you are absolutely correct in the fact that paranoia can paralyze one's thinking process, I also believe that one should simulatenously think outside of the box and not dismiss things as accidents, particularly high profile ones. Crazy stunts pulled by intelligence agencies and their precursors are common in political history.

At the end of the day, I think we should agree to disagree and just wait and see.
I mean yeah if within soon^tm China just starts naming names and pestering US like UK was pestering Russia after the supposed Russian great novichok smearing incident, then that would mean something different.

If that's true, it would instantly put us on the verge of ww3. Not entirely impossible because flash points do happen in cold wars.

So I can agree to wait and see, but the fact China just publicizes this likely speaks to it being an internal matter of the undercover research teams.
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Not exactly. Nothing is guaranteed at all. In any type of war, the enemy always gets a vote. It took an internal leak by Snowden, not Chinese MSS, or Russian FSB, to reveal how extensive the US spy network actually was. The Hong Kong fiaso was building up right under the CPC's nose, yet nothing was done about it. Success is never guaranteed.
Yeah, I would say China's intelligence services is extremely elementary if not downright useless. They were totally caught off guard with the simmering HK protests which we now know had been organized and brewing for months.
And HK is not even some far distant land.. it's literally part of China!
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Yeah, I would say China's intelligence services is extremely elementary if not downright useless. They were totally caught off guard with the simmering HK protests which we now know had been organized and brewing for months.
And HK is not even some far distant land.. it's literally part of China!
So how does it have anything to do with intelligence when HK was handed over without the correct laws to protect the inhabitants? I wasn't aware the legislative council and the foreign nonce judges was the MSS.

How does your hypothesis jive with the fact that the NSL put an end to American illegal foreign agents?

How did the all powerful and all controlling American intelligence fail vs a literal piece of paper that does nothing except authorize the MSS to start clapping their agents and confiscating their funds, if the MSS is as "elementary" and "useless" as you claim.

Lol
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Oh, the MSS won't always be able to prevent some sort of American terror attack from taking place.

But the issue is that any such attacks leaves paper/information trails.

China may not be able to stop the murder, but it would know the perps and the responsible command chain nearly immediately. It's like, remember when the Saudis chainsawed a man?

An attack on the military would mean instant war. We're not seeing that.

If someone died doing "something major", that sounds like an accident in a classified area, related to whatever it is China is doing in the background.
The assassination of a minor official by the CIA would not lead to instant war. It may lead to retaliation in the form of an assassination on equivalent American figures, though. Intelligence operations - succeed or fail - are often kept quiet by both parties. When China eliminated the CIA's operatives in China a decade ago, it was brushed under the carpet politically and nothing big came of it. Nothing big will come of this, either.

It's only when the assassinations get higher up in the chain - like against Xi Jinping or his immediate circle - that wars are started over it.
 

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member


That the anglos are intent on nuclear Armageddon just because China works harder and as a result, has more advanced technology leaving the anglos to feel inferior, highlights the spiritual weakness of the Anglo soul.

On a pedestrian level, you’ll see this behaviour from Caucasians in western society who purposefully exclude and block aspiring Chinese students and applicants so as to protect the caucasoid‘s mediocre offspring.

and speaking of the latest in idiocracy’s gene select bio weapons
 
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kwaigonegin

Colonel
So how does it have anything to do with intelligence when HK was handed over without the correct laws to protect the inhabitants? I wasn't aware the legislative council and the foreign nonce judges was the MSS.

How does your hypothesis jive with the fact that the NSL put an end to American illegal foreign agents?

How did the all powerful and all controlling American intelligence fail vs a literal piece of paper that does nothing except authorize the MSS to start clapping their agents and confiscating their funds, if the MSS is as "elementary" and "useless" as you claim.

Lol
I'm saying the MSS or other agencies should've known and curtailed the sudden explosion of violence and riots etc. that we now know did not just materialized out of the ether; rather had foreign infuence and even involvement of foreign state actors.
 
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