The
is in the middle of a major effort to adapt its capabilities for the future, oriented to counter its two immediate enemies—Syria, which is backed by the Iranians and Iran itself. That is leading the service to prioritize an upgrade and expansion of its
fleet.
Earlier this year, Israel publicly confirmed for the first time that in 2007 it had carried out a strike against a nuclear reactor in Syria, built with North Korea’s help, that could have produced fuel for nuclear weapons.
The attack managed to blind Syrian sensors without that country’s knowledge. Syria does not have an operational air force that can confront Israel’s, but there is no such mismatch with Iran, located nearly 1,000 mi. away from Israel.
As such, the Israeli Air Force needs very different platforms for each theater—an aircraft that can carry heavy loads of bombs to hit targets across the border and another model that can fly a long distance, deny early-warning sensors and prepare the ground for the heavy-loaders.
Since 2016, Israel has been busy with a deep upgrade of its F-15I (Ra’am). The
APG-82(V)1 active, electronically scanned array (AESA) radar had been selected for the program, but replacement of the old APG-70 radar has not yet taken place. The upgrade also includes structural work and installation of new systems, including a new radar.
The decision to embark on this upgrade program was made two years ago, in spite of the nation’s planned purchase of the
. An Israeli source says the air force is looking as far ahead as 40 years. “The F-15 has a lot of advantages. It can be equipped with Israeli-developed systems, an upgrade that can be performed on the F-35 to a clear limit,” says the source.
Israel regards its F-15 fleet to be the backbone of its attacking capability. As such, it is considering the purchase of additional F-15s.
The F-15 line will be open at least until 2020 due to the recent
contract with Qatar.
If the air force decides to purchase additional F-15s, it is likely to rely on a U.S. Foreign Military Financing package approved by Washington in 2016. It begins in 2019 and provides $38 billion over 10 years, up from $31 billion over the last decade.
In a parallel effort, Israel is working hard to regenerate and drastically upgrade some of the nine ex-U.S. Air National Guard F-15Ds that previously served with the 173rd Fighter Wing in Klamath Falls, Oregon.
These aircraft were donated as part of a still active multibillion-dollar aid package to Israel. Some of these older F-15s will be upgraded, according to sources, “to a very advanced configuration.”
Since the F-15D (Baz) was introduced into service with the Israelis, it has been upgraded continuously, used as a capable multirole fighter for counter-air, ground strike, reconnaissance and especially as command-and-control and networking platforms to support long-range strike missions.
The clear tendency in the Israeli Air Force is to first purchase additional new F-15s and only then consider whether to fulfill the original plan of 75 F-35s.
In November 2016, the Israeli cabinet approved the purchase of another 17
F-35s, for a total 50 of the stealth fighters.
Israeli sources say talks continue with the U.S.
about the potential purchase of 20-25 advanced F-15s.
While details about the exact version of the F-15 under discussion are scarce, sources say it will use a design similar to the F-15 Eagle 2040C purchased by Qatar, with a focus on carrying additional missiles.
The aircraft will carry a special communications pod, allowing it to transfer and receive data to and from other aircraft in a secured format. The 2040C will be fitted with Raytheon’s AN/APG-63(V)3 AESA radar. It will also carry a long-range infrared search-and-track system.
This kind of deal could help keep Boeing’s production line open through the mid-2020s, should it lose the U.S. Air Force’s T-X trainer and the U.S. Navy’s MQ-25 carrier-based refueling UAV contracts, says Byron Callan, an analyst for Capital Alpha Partners. “Navy and Kuwait buys will sustain
production to the early 2020s, and Boeing should complete F-15 deliveries to Qatar by late 2022,” Callan writes. “Boeing has F/A-18 opportunities, but we don’t believe there are high-probability wins in Canada, Belgium, Switzerland, Finland or conceivably Spain. We also do not believe there is high probability of sale of a new upgraded version of the F-15 to the U.S. Air Force.”
