Europe Refugee Crisis

There is a potentially positive aspect to this mass migration. Looking at it strictly from a non moral or cultural standpoint, the economies of Europe may benefit from this influx of mostly young and very young refugees.
Many countries in Europe have had a negative population growth for a while now (other words median age is growing older) and all these new young folks can certainly help grow the economies of these countries. Industrialized, stable countries with a negative or stagnated population growth is 100% guaranteed to negatively affect the economy of the country.
Germany keeps getting older, same with many Nordic countries.
Japan is also in big trouble with the country growing older as well.
China is not as bad because se is not fully industrized yet however it is also compounded worse by gender imbalance.

kwaigonegin said:

China is not as bad because se is not fully industrized yet however it is also compounded worse by gender imbalance.

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China actually has major problems in this area and the reason for the reversal of the one child policy. This topic is OT and so I will not labour on it. Looks like you are not aware of the 1-2-4 problem.

Brumby said:

China actually has major problems in this area and the reason for the reversal of the one child policy. This topic is OT and so I will not labour on it. Looks like you are not aware of the 1-2-4 problem.

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No doubt china has problems with aging population, I'm just saying not as bad from a negative economic standpoint compared to Japan, Germany etc because china hasn't fully reach fully industrialized status yet. Unlike Japan, Germany, Scandinavia, China still has a relatively large percentage of her population living in poverty so the effect would not be felt as much by them.

I used to be subtle:

Jura said:

I'll repeat here what I've said in the pub recently: I'd suggest everybody who comments on the
Europe Refugee Crisis
to consider if (s)he would've said the same (whatever it is!) if
ten times more; hundred times more
refugees/migrants/displaced persons had been arriving.

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Jura said:

"... the European Commission estimated that more than three million more people are expected to arrive in the EU by the end of next year and that those numbers are not expected to diminish until 2017 ..." according to ...
source:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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but have enough after the Paris attacks, and hearing from

this: "We should not mix the different categories of people coming to . The one responsible for the attacks in Paris … he is a criminal and not a refugee and not an asylum seeker." (it's inside of

wrong, Jean-Claude! your Political Correctness brings menace to Europe in the form of yet unidentified Islamist Commandos, and it's time to stop this before they hit again, and more of them arrives! I suggest this:

1. Help Turkey with Refugee Camps at its south/eastern border, so that the conditions there are as comfortable as they can be (Turkey is the second biggest NATO Military so it shouldn't have problems with protecting those people there). Some Refugees will flee, so the next point:
2. Help Greece with protecting Schengen Area borders for example by sending NATO Navies in constable role around islands which Greeks say are too close. Refugees who get caught, are to be sent back. Still some Refugees will pass through, so the next point:
3. Help protecting Schengen Area borders also north to Greece, for real. Refugees who get caught, at the border or behind it, are to be sent back where they started (point 1 above).

Do this now.
P.S. No, I didn't sleep well this night.

Jura said:

I used to be subtle:

[...]

1. Help Turkey with Refugee Camps at its south/eastern border, so that the conditions there are as comfortable as they can be (Turkey is the second biggest NATO Military so it shouldn't have problems with protecting those people there). Some Refugees will flee, so the next point:
2. Help Greece with protecting Schengen Area borders for example by sending NATO Navies in constable role around islands which Greeks say are too close. Refugees who get caught, are to be sent back. Still some Refugees will pass through, so the next point:
3. Help protecting Schengen Area borders also north to Greece, for real. Refugees who get caught, at the border or behind it, are to be sent back where they started (point 1 above).

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While I totally agree with your sentiment and direction, I'm afraid there's practical issues.

A very large amount of that mass immigration is still uncontrolled. German authorities have to regularly admit they don't know how many refugees are already in the country, or who and where they are. Proper registration procedures at the Schengen borders, working data transfer and controll of refugee movement at the borders would serve well as an initial meassure. Although that will require to move the flow through proper border crossings.

But, to the real point, Turkey. I have literaly just now seen a report on the issue on TV.
Apparently there are 2 - 2,5 million refugees currently in Turkey. 6 out 7 seven are said not to live in some kind of camp, but somewhere with friends / relatives or so on. So holding them back could be a bit difficult. That said, those who settle down are apperently not really likely to try to get to Europe anyway.
Also, from following the news over the last couple of weeks, it seems Turkey is less inclined to try and keep the refugees in country in the first place. It costs them a lot of money, and Europe will have to pay. In the region of Billions I guess. Which is fine.
I see other issues. It seems president Erdogan wants other, far reaching, political compromises for this. Stuff like visa requirement allevation, quicker EU membership talks and the like.
As such, I think your point 1 will be the biggest hurdle. The other two are different. Enlarge FRONTEX personell wise and support their work with naval patrolling in the air and see as you suggested. Plus regain controll over the borders.

Scratch said:

While I totally agree with your sentiment and direction, I'm afraid there's practical issues.

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thank you Scratch, and of course I didn't mean any "Jura's Plan" (I tried to be brief, and watched my language); my main point is this:
What's the alternative?? Are we going to try our luck by accepting three plus million people next year (that's an EU estimate, from the link in my preceding post!) and trying to find in between them Islamic Commando members, including in fact EU citizens who had joined ISIL already and might be coming back?? I think that would be reckless, and instead the Schengen Area borders should be sealed right now (which would mean huge investments into measures in Turkey and elsewhere, but likely different from what I posted above).

Jura said:

thank you Scratch, and of course I didn't mean any "Jura's Plan" (I tried to be brief, and watched my language); my main point is this:
...

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Oh I'm totally with you here. I am honestly wondering, though, how it could work in practice in Turkey. Over the last few years, they have allowed all kinds of murkey people to cross the border back and forth, so long as they were remotely likely to harm Assad's regime in any way. I wonder how the state of affairs along the border is these days.
I also wonder what could be done to persuade Turkey to tightly controll their border traffic. Or the migration flow on their side of the border. Political trade offs like ditching the Kurds should not be on the table, IMO.

In my mind, the meassures have to start in Europe. Intercepting any boats involved in illegal trafficing as soon as they leave turkish territorial waters. Collectively controll (and largely seal, as Spain did) any outside borders as you say. Find places to thouroughly check and process any immigrants on the Schengen borders.

Any further common meassuers with Turkey can probably only follow afterwards.

Jura said:

thank you Scratch, and of course I didn't mean any "Jura's Plan" (I tried to be brief, and watched my language); my main point is this:
What's the alternative?? Are we going to try our luck by accepting three plus million people next year (that's an EU estimate, from the link in my preceding post!) and trying to find in between them Islamic Commando members, including in fact EU citizens who had joined ISIL already and might be coming back?? I think that would be reckless, and instead the Schengen Area borders should be sealed right now (which would mean huge investments into measures in Turkey and elsewhere, but likely different from what I posted above).

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I understand one of the major issue with the mass migration of refugees is that the majority of them do not have any papers with them that can actually help to determine their identity and status. In the absence of such basic information, it is almost impossible to make any security assessment during the vetting process. Putting them through the processing centres is simply a false sense of security. This had been the main talking point that I have heard from those that are generally opposed to the intake. Is this factually true?

The main problem with attempting to seal the borders is the lack of political will when pictures of dying children get washed ashore that makes the front page. There will be significant push back from the liberal left and all the political correctness that comes with it. You then have Germany that still maintains the open door unlimited intake policy. Europe is not united on this unfortunately and will just get bogged down in policy deliberations. The problem currently is Europe is just reacting and not having a set of policies (with resources behind it) that is truly managing the problem. Typically with problems like this, a 2 step approach is required. The first and immediate is some form of program that effectively stops the bleeding i.e. problem containment and then work on a longer term solution. It may be to immediately seal the borders and those that are already inside to be directed to processing centres. Don't confuse solutions between short term fixes and long term solutions.

Brumby said:

Why is there an immediate assumption that the Europeans have to justify their own border policies. If others are so indignant and morally outraged, they can always step in front and offer their countries as sanctuary. I have not seen any offers, have you?

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You mean Canada?

solarz said:

You mean Canada?

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I know that Canada has offered 25,000 places and Australia 12,000. Nevertheless Europe is facing a 3 to 4 million refugees problem. It is a problem the Europeans have to deal with and with solutions they deemed appropriate within their capabilities. The criticisms in my view are from people with no skin in the game and from a moral pedestal without obligations.