No, I DO think it works and I also think there is no evidence that the Chinese military is hiding its capability. What I think they ARE actually hiding is its terminal homing radar frequency. They may also be hiding exactly which satellites are in the kill chain and what frequencies they use. This is not the same as "hiding its capability". What I think the US military knows that we don't are whether the Chinese military actually possesses this kill chain and approximately how robust it is. What I think nobody knows including the Chinese military is how accurate the DF-21D is in the real world against a violently maneuvering surface target employing countermeasures.
CV-16 Liaoning (001 carrier) Thread II ...News, Views and operations
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Jura The idiot
General
wouldn't they use an EO/IR instead?
Maybe, though I'm not sure if this is an option given the high speeds and temperatures the DF-21D warhead would be subjected to during and after reentry.
Jura The idiot
General
just a general comment: it's amazing people have been talking Dong-Feng for years (LOL it appears I joined as late as Jan 7, 2014 though) and still conflicting (while seriously meant) views are available, from "untested Chinese trash" to "pew! pew! pew! USN carriers"
It is only prudent not to reveal all capabilities, as to do so makes it easier for ones adversary to develop countermeasures
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Because the unknown is a huge deterrent by itself. It's entirely possible that for China to fully reveal the capabilities of the DF-21D, they would also reveal a great deal about how it works and how it can be countered/planned against.
Same thing with China's nukes. According to your idea, they should advertise as many nukes as possible, but instead, they give a paltry number that no one really believes to be that low in reality.
Against a boxer like Mayweather, the most frightening adversary is one he knows nothing about because the scariest situation for him is to be knocked out by surprise tactics that he could have prepared for and saved himself against had he had the time to plan. Even if you are very very good, near peer or peer level to him, you don't want to show him what you can do to try to intimidate him because there's a great chance that then, he can figure you out and plan for how to beat you. He was more intimidated when he didn't know what you can do.
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The US are playing safe with deployments of THAAD at South Korea and soon at Japan.
Also note US-SK-Japan naval BMD capabilities such as with the recent joint exercise.
I think people are just talking past each other at this point. I have already said China almost certainly does not wish to reveal certain aspects of this missile and exactly how it targets ships, and that is why I think it will not likely perform a full test on a maneuvering ship. BUT as long as China knows that the US knows that China has a credible ASBM capability, its mission with this missile has been accomplished. Some people here seem to be talking about "hiding capability" as in hiding whether this missile really works. This is the wrong conclusion to draw IMO. I think this missile works but the specifics of its targeting is what is being hidden. I think the US military can and has already put together intel on generally how this missile would acquire, track and home in on a ship (this is the level of information China would WANT the US to have), but it may lack specifics on exactly which assets would be used, what frequencies would be used, and how well the missile would respond to maneuvering and countermeasures.
Strategic nuclear ambiguity is an entirely different matter. Here China is coming from an OBVIOUS position of weakness where the US and the entire world knows that China has far less nukes than the US. In this case it is definitely in China's interest to hide exactly how many nukes it has so as to make it not entirely clear to the US that if it launched a first strike against China, whether it could or has taken out all of China's nukes. This is the ambiguity that China has been counting on for decades. Contrast this with USSR/Russia and the US, where the entire world knows exactly how many thousands of ICBM-range warheads they have because it is essentially impossible to take them all out in a first strike, thus there is no reason to hide their massive arsenals and in fact helps in deterrence, and thus they have not hidden them. And that is how the rest of us know how many each country has.
vesicles
Colonel
Sun Tzu's strategies are not all about hiding. He stresses flexibility and focuses on hiding one's capabilities when you are weak so that your enemy is unsure whether they should attack and how much damage you can inflict. On the other hand, boast your capabilities when you are strong so that your enemy's confidence is shaken and you can achieve your objectives without even fighting.
China was doing a lot of hiding in the 80's, 90's and 2000's when they were still weak. They wanted opponents to be confused about their true capabilities, thus discouraged from attacking China. Now China is not so weak any more. So their strategies have been shifted to boasting their capabilities so that their opponents would not underestimate them and would not make military decisions against them lightly. This is what the US has been doing. This is also why the US is not shy about showing off their new toys. The shock and awe would be enough to force enemy to back down. And China is moving into similar situation now.
This is especially the case when talking about DF-21, a weapon that supposedly posts huge threat to China's potential opponents. Hiding its capabilities would not do any good at all. Like nuclear weapons, actually using such weapon would be the last resort (about to start WWIII). The main purpose is deterrence. To become a deterrence, you want to be as invincible as you can. Thus, it makes no sense to hide it.
China was doing a lot of hiding in the 80's, 90's and 2000's when they were still weak. They wanted opponents to be confused about their true capabilities, thus discouraged from attacking China. Now China is not so weak any more. So their strategies have been shifted to boasting their capabilities so that their opponents would not underestimate them and would not make military decisions against them lightly. This is what the US has been doing. This is also why the US is not shy about showing off their new toys. The shock and awe would be enough to force enemy to back down. And China is moving into similar situation now.
This is especially the case when talking about DF-21, a weapon that supposedly posts huge threat to China's potential opponents. Hiding its capabilities would not do any good at all. Like nuclear weapons, actually using such weapon would be the last resort (about to start WWIII). The main purpose is deterrence. To become a deterrence, you want to be as invincible as you can. Thus, it makes no sense to hide it.
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