Chinese Economics Thread

Discussion in 'Members' Club Room' started by Norfolk, Jan 10, 2008.

  1. Equation
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    Equation Lieutenant General

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    OR that more people in China prefers to ride high speed trains and efficient subways instead of being stuck in traffic in car.o_O Your analogy doesn't cover this, therefore it is safe to say that you don't know what you're talking, thinking, or arguing about when it comes to the subject about today's China.
     
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  2. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    Or maybe ride sharing taxis are more popular than owning a car and dealing with the hassle of parking?
    Didi is currently running at 30million rides per day, but in 2017 it was an average of 20million.

    And what about low speed electric vehicles? They aren't part of the auto sales figures, but they are small vehicles which are easier to park and don't need a driving license.
     
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  3. Anlsvrthng
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    Anlsvrthng Junior Member
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    Usually the sequence of getting more wealthy is walking->biking->mass transit->own used car->own new car


    up to 2017 summer it was the normal for Chinia as well, but since something happened.
     
  4. Anlsvrthng
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    Anlsvrthng Junior Member
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    Simply saying NO is not an analysis, it is just an general visualisation of your emotions.

    Why is it has low probability, what can have higher probability .

    Ihttps://www.statista.com/statistics/276063/volume-of-railway-passenger-transport-in-china/
    Railway passenger km growth was 7% between 16-17.

    There is no 17-18 data, so no proof : )
     
  5. vincent
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    vincent Junior Member

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    Have you ever seen a picture of the traffic jam in China? Have you ever tried to find a parking spot in most cities? Having a car is a pain in the ass in China
     
  6. Anlsvrthng
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    Anlsvrthng Junior Member
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    Like for Japan. In Japan the car ownership growth was faster than any other transportation form, until 2000s.
     
  7. Equation
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    Equation Lieutenant General

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    "Usually" doesn't apply to wealthy Chinese in dense populated cities. Does rich affluent people in NYC have own multiple cars?
     
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  8. manqiangrexue
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    manqiangrexue Senior Member

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    I'm so sick of you being stupid here. You can't read, so you didn't understand what I said, causing you to imagine arguments that were never placed. Then, you can't even remember past conversations. So that leads to you bring the same stupid points up again and again and people have to tell you the same thing again and again. It's like you have the education of a child but the memory of an old person; I don't know what's wrong with you. I'm not going to rewrite these lessons I already taught you. Here, I quote them from the past. The answer is there; reread them until you get it.

    https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/trade-war-with-china.t8265/page-237#post-527702
    "China is selling fewer cheap conventional cars and more expensive high-tech cars. That does not point to declining ability to afford things. If it was like Europe and we start seeing Chinese people buy more small cheap cars, maybe we can conclude that.

    Trucks took the biggest hit, yes. For many reasons:
    1. China's economy is shifting away from producing tons of cheap goods to streamlined high tech goods. That's reduced shipping volume.
    2. China's economy is shifting towards the services sector, to further reduce the shipping requirement.
    3. China's high speed rails have left many older trains that take 16 hours to go from Shanghai to Nanjing without passengers so they have become cargo trains. Although trucks still have to load and unload them from their origin and destination, that means these trucks are driving 15 miles instead of 500 miles. That increased their longevity significantly."

    https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/trade-war-with-china.t8265/page-238#post-527790
    "The world right now is shifting from conventional vehicles to EV and/or hybrid energy vehicles. It is still a relatively new concept and these cars are improving rapidly compared to conventionally-fueled vehicles, which are very mature technology. What happens right before the new iphone or Samsung or Huawei comes out? Sales of the current models drop off in anticipation for improvement. This drop in sales can in no way be interpreted as under-performance or economic disaster for the company.

    Car sales are basically declining in every major economy around the world now. I believe another factor is that with the maturation of traditionally-fueled vehicle technology, the cars of today are lasting longer than the cars of the past and that is causing the replacement rate to drop."

    This is not even a possibility looking at the actual economic numbers. Also, China's overall spending on everything, NOT just conventional cars and pork, (which, judging by your posts, are the only 2 things to measure an economy by LOL), rises every year.

    And yes, @Equation has a good point I did not think about. China's government discourages vehicle purchase to cut down on pollution and congestion. Fuel is heavily taxed, license plates regulated per family (and by lottery), AND these plates are restricted from driving on certain days by number. Public transportation, on the other hand is improving, being cleaner and faster. So while normally, people with more money opt for cars over public transport, urbanization can reverse this. When it takes you 2 hours and $12 in fuel to drive through heavy city traffic, and you can only do this Monday and Wednesday, while the subway is $1.50 and zips you there in 30 min, you figure out which one you'd rather take if you can afford both. I lived in Manhattan for many years and never had trouble affording a car, but I always left my car in Texas at my mother's because it just doesn't make sense to have it in the city.
     
    #9568 manqiangrexue, Dec 6, 2018 at 6:49 PM
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2018 at 7:09 PM
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  9. Jura
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    Jura Lieutenant General

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  10. Anlsvrthng
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    Anlsvrthng Junior Member
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    So , you saying next things:
    1. Japanese poorer than Chinese, so they can not afford expensive cars.
    2. Japan has more space than China.
    3. China has one car / adult car ownership rate.


    Just for reference, China car ownership per capita third of the EU average.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita


    few data point :
    Poland : 568 / 1000 person
    Hungary : 338 / thousand person
    China 164/thousand person ( 2018 data)
    Urugay : 200 / thousand person
    Japan:591/thousand person
    Russia : 369/thousand person
    South korea : 459/ thousand


    South Korea population density is WAAAAY higher than China, but they still have three time as much car.

    China needs to make 15 million car/year just to keep on level the vehicle stock.
    With the 2017 car output number ( and as it looks like it was the highest for long time) it will take 20 years to reach Russian/Hungarian car ownership number.


    So you saying that selling 1000 cars for 500 000 $ is a better sign of a middle class than selling 50 000 cars for 10 000 $ each?

    Your argument centred around that the middle class getting poorer in China, but the wealthy getting richer.

    Sadly the data doesn't support this emotional outburst.

    But pork demand has hit a ceiling, well ahead of most official forecasts. Sales of pork have now fallen for the past three years, according to data from research firm Euromonitor. Last year they hit three-year lows of 40.85 million tonnes from 42.49 million tonnes in 2014, and Euromonitor predicts they will also fall slightly in 2017.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...roducers-as-diets-get-healthier-idUSKBN19A31C
     
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