Chinese Economics Thread

Discussion in 'Members' Club Room' started by Norfolk, Jan 10, 2008.

  1. siegecrossbow
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    siegecrossbow Brigadier
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    Great time to invest in Chinese ecommerce companies.
     
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  2. Ultra
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    Ultra Junior Member

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    A lot of exaggeration in this article.

    I will just point out that TPP at its inception is already a dead duck. US has to twist the arms of many countries to get them to sign. And only a handful of countries signed. You can count them with both hands and your two toes. In fact TPP is bad for the US and many countries.

    So Trump didn't gift China with anything, it will just naturally runs its course to the same conclusion anyway.

    Also you really don't need to be a genius to search for those number to see the rise of China as consumer titan. Just have a look at that last year's movie "Wolf Warrior 2".

    $874 million at the Chinese box office alone.

    I don't think I have ever seen a movie outside of US made that much money alone (except for UK - James Bond & Harry Potter movies seems to make pretty pennies).
     
    #8222 Ultra, Jan 12, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2018
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  3. Equation
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    Equation Lieutenant General

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    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/chi...line|story&par=yahoo&doc=104942019&yptr=yahoo
     
  4. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    Excellent news with consumer demand strong, export is doing well Now the Yuan is strong contrary to some basher who gleefully predict a run on Chinese yuan to the dismay of Economist. China 1 Basher zip

    Stable handsHow China won the battle of the yuan
    Capital controls, economic strength and a bit of luck go a long way

    Jan 11th 2018
    “THE horse may be out of the proverbial barn.” So wrote Ben Bernanke, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, in early 2016, arguing that capital controls might be powerless to save China from a run on its currency. He was far from alone at the time. As cash rushed out of the country, analysts debated whether the yuan would collapse, and some hedge funds bet that day was coming fast. But two years on, the horse is back in the barn: the government’s defence of the yuan has succeeded, in part through tighter capital controls.

    The latest evidence was an 11th consecutive monthly increase in foreign-exchange reserves in December. During that time China’s stockpile of official reserves, the world’s biggest, climbed by $142bn, reaching $3.14trn, roughly double the cushion usually regarded as needed to ensure financial stability. Another sign of China’s success is the yuan itself. At the start of 2017 the consensus of forecasters was that the currency would continue to weaken; it finished the year up by 6% against the dollar.

    Investors and analysts were not wrong in viewing Chinese capital controls as porous. Enterprising types had—and have—umpteen ways to sneak money out, from overpaying for imports to smuggling cash across the border in luggage. But there is a wide spectrum between a fully open and fully closed capital account, and China has showed over the past year that it can tilt towards closure, at least for a time.

    Its measures were directed at actors big and small. Under more scrutiny from regulators, China’s overseas acquisitions fell by more than a third, to $140bn last year. Individuals were still permitted to convert up to $50,000 a year, but they faced heavier disclosure burdens. The government is in no hurry to relax these controls: a new, lower ceiling on withdrawals from ATMs abroad went into effect on January 1st.

    Also crucial to China’s defence of the yuan was an economic rebound. Housing prices soared and industrial firms’ profits rose by 20% last year on the back of higher commodity prices. Here, Mr Bernanke can claim some vindication: in looking at China’s options in 2016, he had suggested that a fiscal boost would support growth and so help keep cash at home. An unconventional policy mix—investment in low-income housing and closure of excess industrial capacity—did the trick.

    China had a stroke of good luck, too. Many had thought that Donald Trump’s presidency would initially add to dollar strength, which might have pulled cash away from China. But America’s political muddle instead weighed on the dollar. Not only did that boost the relative allure of Chinese assets, it also made its foreign-exchange reserves look more valuable in dollar terms, because roughly a third are held in other currencies. Over the past year, true inflows accounted for just about a third of the rise in China’s reserves; valuation changes explained the rest (see chart). Other Asian economies with hefty foreign-currency reserves, from Japan to Taiwan, reaped similar gains.

    As America cuts taxes and raises interest rates, the dollar may soon perk up. But China has less cause for concern than in 2016. Capital controls have reinforced the bolts on its barn door. And with growth holding up, the horse inside is well-fed.
     
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  5. manqiangrexue
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    manqiangrexue Senior Member

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    http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/12/new...=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_world+(RSS%3A+CNN+-+World)

    China's exporters have had a blockbuster year.
    Exports to the United States surged 15% in 2017, helping push the country's huge trade surplus with the U.S. to a new record, according to Chinese government data released Friday.

    The U.S. government hasn't announced its own trade figures for the whole of 2017, but experts say they are also likely to show a massive deficit with China.

    That's unlikely to sit well with President Trump, who focuses on America's balance of trade as the key measure of economic relations with other countries even though economists say it paints an incomplete picture.

    "The record high trade surplus is likely to lead to more trade disputes between China and the U.S.," said Tommy Xie, an economist at Singaporean bank OCBC.

    China benefited from increasing momentum in the wider global economy last year: the country's overall exports increased 11%, according to government data. And American demand was a big part of that.

    The "continued strength of China's exports to the U.S. ... is bound to add to U.S.-China trade tensions," Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at research firm Oxford Economics, noted on Friday.

    U.S. data show that the deficit in goods trade with China was already $347 billion in 2016.

    Trump campaigned on a promise to get tough on Chinese trade practices, but he pulled his punches last year. He failed to follow through on a pledge to label Beijing a currency manipulator and a threat to slap huge tariffs on Chinese goods.

    Experts say they fear the situation could deteriorate this year, though.

    Trump will have opportunities to impose tariffs on a range of Chinese goods. If he does, it could provoke tit-for-tat reprisals from Beijing.

    What's more, if China's economy slows this year as some experts predict, that could widen the trade deficit further.

    Economists expect China's economy to grow about 6.4% this year, down from around 6.8% in 2017. That could mean softening demand for imports as Chinese businesses and consumers tighten their belts.

    This "may create tensions with its trading partners," said Capital Economics economist Julian Evans-Pritchard in a note to clients on Friday.
     
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  6. Jura
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    Jura Lieutenant General

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  7. Dolcevita
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    Dolcevita Junior Member

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    China now has a labor shortage.


    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends/Japanese-robot-makers-see-strong-Chinese-tailwinds-in-2018
    January 13, 2018 12:01 pm JST
    Japanese robot makers see strong Chinese tailwinds in 2018
    Record demand fueled by China's worker shortage and robust economy

    MASASHI ISAWA and YURI MASUDA, Nikkei staff writers


    [​IMG]
    Industrial robot demand from Japanese companies has reached record levels.

    TOKYO -- Japanese production of industrial robots appears likely to rise 10% in value this year and hit 1 trillion yen ($8.99 billion) for the first time, the Japan Robot Association said Friday, as China feverishly automates factories amid a labor shortage, rising wages and economic confidence.



    Automation thrives

    Fanuc CEO Yoshiharu Inaba, the association's chairman, told an excited group at the industry's New Year's celebration here Friday that output soared 30% last year to about 900 billion yen.
    "Output could reach 2 trillion yen in three to five years if things go smoothly," Inaba predicted, adding later that "demand will expand for more than five years. The 2 trillion yen mark is probably just a checkpoint."

    China will continue driving this growth. "Orders [from China] are increasing further," said Yasuhiko Hashimoto, general manager of the robot division for Kawasaki Heavy Industries. "There are no concerns at this point."

    "Chinese demand will not deteriorate," said Hiroshi Ogasawara, president of Yaskawa Electric. "Nothing is decided, but we would probably choose China if we add facilities in the future."

    Fanuc looks to capture such brisk demand by building a roughly 63 billion yen robot factory in Japan's Ibaraki Prefecture. The site is expected to produce up to 4,000 units a month when fully operational and boost Fanuc's capacity by over 50%.

    Mitsubishi Electric plans to begin robot production in China in June, lifting total capacity by 50% compared with 2016 when combined with the company's Japanese plants.

    China's strong demand for robots is fueled primarily by the country's severe labor shortage, while more Chinese companies also are introducing robots to improve product quality. Manufacturing services increasingly use robots to assemble smartphones as well as servers, smart speakers, electronic autoparts and other electronics.

    No slacking
    The Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association projected Thursday that tool orders will reach 1.7 trillion yen this year topping the record set for 2017.

    "The forecast does not incorporate much smartphone demand," Chairman Yukio Iimura said of what was a conservative forecast. "Work is not just going to large companies but to small and midsize businesses as well."

    But some machine tool executives see the current situation as a bubble. Chinese demand could sink should Beijing tighten monetary policy, while unpredictable risks include sudden changes in foreign exchange rates, government or a conflict arising. Bitter memories remain from the 2008 financial crisis, when orders plunged to one-fourth of their level before the shock.

    The robotics industry also faces its own shortage of specialized system architects, while the industrial machinery field undergoes a revolution similar to the upheaval seen in automobiles and appliances.

    Competition with Chinese machine tool makers poses a threat as well, as Japan's foreign rivals progress on technology to manage factory devices via the internet.

    "This is no time to get complacent," Iimura warned. "How we differentiate Japanese products will be essential."
     
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  8. Dolcevita
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    Dolcevita Junior Member

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    While US prioritize revival of Coal Energy, China prioritizes Renewable Energy over Nuclear Energy. BAd news for Westinghouse and Areva.


     
  9. AssassinsMace
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    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/11/world/china-recyclables-ban.html?_r=0

    Does it really matter If China is lying about the levels of contamination in foreign waste as the reason to reject foreign waste as charged by an EU Secretary General? That's like Western countries claiming to be environmentally conscience above all others when all they do ship their garbage out to another country and not actually recycle it. China is not obligated to take their garbage. It's no different from using national security as an excuse to prevent Chinese hi-tech electronics to compete with theirs in their markets. They seem to be okay when China makes their electronics for their corporations.
     
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  10. Jura
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    Jura Lieutenant General

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    now I read
    Chinese FM rejects claim China's financing increases Africa's debt burden
    Xinhua| 2018-01-15 03:37:28 http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-01/15/c_136895457.htm

     
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