Chinese Economics Thread

jimmyjames30x30

Junior Member
Registered Member
If Navarro was working for China, he would have more than one imaginary friend.

The Trump got himself into this position by using Amazon as a recruitment tool for top officials.

That is such a ridiculous thing no intelligence agency could possibly have predicted to set up a long term plant for.

As for the trade deal, it’s not really a trade deal as the western MSM is claiming, it’s just a temporary cease fire.

Look at the timing and who said what.

December 15 is right smack in the middle of Christmas shopping season. The orders would have been made months ago, with contracts signed and deposits paid and zero chance of finding alternative sources of goods outside of China since all factories would have all their capacity planned and used up for this most busy of shopping seasons months ago.

That means that if Trumps tarriffs kick it, it will only be American retailers and consumers who will feel the immediate hit to their bottom line and wallets. Chinese manufacturers are not going to feel a thing (unless they choose to help absorb part of the tarriff hit, but a. They could not be compelled to do so, and b. Even if some chose to do so, it will be on an individual basis and only in extremes, like if their American customer would go out of business otherwise), because as every single economic expert has said from the start, it is the American side that pays Trump’s tarriffs when goods arrive in American ports.

With Presidential elections just around the corner next year, even Trump would have to out-Trump himself to think a massive 15% price hike to most Americans’ Christmas shopping bills would help his re-election chances.

Then let’s look at the wording and who said it, although the MSM is trying desperately to spin this as some kind of American victory with emphasis on how Trump can snap tarriffs back in the event of ‘Chinese non-compliance’, that is really just a red herring, since either side could re-instate or even levy additional new tarrifs any time they bloody well want.

That’s like a boxer who is sitting on his backside on the canvas saying, ‘I can get back up and start throwing punches again any time I want’.

Now let’s look at what the agreement covers; the US has agreed to massively roll back existing tarrifs on top of stopping the threatened new round. All the American side has said is that China has agreed to buy farm products.

No mention of intellectual property; Chinese industrial planning and policy; or any of the other myriad of ridiculous American demands from the start of the trade war.

In fact, if we think back to the start, buying more American farm products was what China offered at the very beginning to help narrow the trade deficit.

So after all this drama, America has dropped all their ridiculous demands and settled for what China has offered from the very beginning.

How does anyone see a Chinese capitulation happening here?

What more, we have zero actual figures on just how much American farm goods China is to purchase; at what date and at what price.

With Trumps character and temperament, as well as the domestic political pressures he is under, I have zero doubt that he would be shouting from the rooftops the exact details of this deal if it was in America’s favour. He would be the first to brag all over Twitter about how many billions he just made the American people if his deal was actual advantageous.

It would not surprise me at all if China is buying the surplus farm goods the American government was forced to buy from American farmers to bail them out, and at a significant discount.

It is also noteworthy that China has said precisely nothing through all of this.

Normally, when two sides sign a deal or ceasefire, both heads of states sign together. But so far it is only Trump who has signed.

So the more you look at this, the more this looks like an unilateral ceasefire on the American side, to avoid the massive holes these new proposed tarriffs would shoot in America’s own feet; with America coming back to China’s opening offer of farm goods purchases as a tiny figleaf to make it look like China has actually also offered up something to avoid it looking like a total capitulation on Trump’s side.

China is not stupid, and could easily have built in insurance clauses to any purchase agreement.

With those in place, a big purchase of US pork would make good economic and political sense for China given the swine flu issues in China, and with Chinese New Year also not far off, such a move could reverse the massive pork price inflation seen in China this year just in time for Chinese New Year.

Actually, the information available so far shows little real gain for the US. A real victory for the US will need to consist of at least one of two things:
1. To structurally dismantle the state capitalism of China, which means that China can no longer subsidize and command its own core industry. This will mean that China will no longer have the ability to conduct gigantic project like the Made-In-China-2025, or OBOR, etc.
2. To force China's central bank (the People's Bank of China) to become a private institution like the Fed, and thus strips the CCP Politburo of its power to set monetary policy of China.

Anything else is simply too insignificant or strategically irrelevant, and isn't worth starting a trade war or ending it. If Trump really decide to make this deal an effective ending point of the trade war, it would look to me like it's a decisive victory for China. This is because what concession China is willing to “give” is actually things that benefits China. China have always welcomed US agricultural products and high tech manufactured goods. And after the Power of Siberia pipeline goes into commission, it's actually an opportune moment for China to open the door for importing US LNG. All of these are working in China's interest.

The only potential risk I see from information so far, is the opening financial market to US financial capitals. The US have extensive knowledge in manipulating the financial market, so much so that their ability in the financial market could very well be weaponized. However, since it is the Chinese mainland we are talking about, it could mean that it will take years for the US to get the gist of how things work in China's financial market. And this Financial War will be the fought on China's home field. So it is both risky and safe. This is because Chinese decision maker believe that a Financial War is inevitable between China and the US. Therefore it is much better if China can draw US "financial forces" into Chinese homeland for this upcoming Financial War, instead of having to fight the US "financial forces" in a faraway foreign market.

I am really impressed how the Chinese team is able to get away with what they have now. Or it could simply be that Trump doesn't want this to drag on for too long.
 
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numerous anti-Trump quotes inside
Do the numbers in Donald Trump’s ‘phase one’ trade deal work? US critics worry they don’t
so follow the link
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if interested;

also checked the press release
China, U.S. agree on text of phase one trade deal
Xinhua| 2019-12-13 23:07:32
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Chish

Junior Member
Registered Member
Actually, the information available so far shows little real gain for the US. A real victory for the US will need to consist of at least one of two things:
1. To structurally dismantle the state capitalism of China, which means that China can no longer subsidize and command its own core industry. This will mean that China will no longer have the ability to conduct gigantic project like the Made-In-China-2025, or OBOR, etc.
2. To force China's central bank (the People's Bank of China) to become a private institution like the Fed, and thus strips the CCP Politburo of its power to set monetary policy of China.

Anything else is simply too insignificant or strategically irrelevant, and isn't worth starting a trade war or ending it. If Trump really decide to make this deal an effective ending point of the trade war, it would look to me like it's a decisive victory for China. This is because what concession China is willing to “give” is actually things that benefits China. China have always welcomed US agricultural products and high tech manufactured goods. And after the Power of Siberia pipeline goes into commission, it's actually an opportune moment for China to open the door for importing US LNG. All of these are working in China's interest.

The only potential risk I see from information so far, is the opening financial market to US financial capitals. The US have extensive knowledge in manipulating the financial market, so much so that their ability in the financial market could very well be weaponized. However, since it is the Chinese mainland we are talking about, it could mean that it will take years for the US to get the gist of how things work in China's financial market. And this Financial War will be the fought on China's home field. So it is both risky and safe. This is because Chinese decision maker believe that a Financial War is inevitable between China and the US. Therefore it is much better if China can draw US "financial forces" into Chinese homeland for this upcoming Financial War, instead of having to fight the US "financial forces" in a faraway foreign market.

I am really impressed how the Chinese team is able to get away with what they have now. Or it could simply be that Trump doesn't want this to drag on for too long.
Trump should know by now that his advisers and negotiators are not delivering any good or promised results. That's why he and Jared Kushner are now front and center in dealing with China. He can't be fooled all the time.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
No matter how you dice it up, the truth of the matter is this is a MAJOR climb down by POTUS!

The MSM can spin away all they like.

The fact is Trump, in trying to bend China's will by threatening tariffs by 15th Dec if no deal (let's not forget, it was design to get all his demands met) is on the table! And now has to retract that threat is the epitomy of climb down in anyones book!

I mean where's the deal on "forced tech transfer", espionage stealing of tech". "unfair subsidies", etc?
 

jimmyjames30x30

Junior Member
Registered Member
No matter how you dice it up, the truth of the matter is this is a MAJOR climb down by POTUS!

The MSM can spin away all they like.

The fact is Trump, in trying to bend China's will by threatening tariffs by 15th Dec if no deal (let's not forget, it was design to get all his demands met) is on the table! And now has to retract that threat is the epitomy of climb down in anyones book!

I mean where's the deal on "forced tech transfer", espionage stealing of tech". "unfair subsidies", etc?

"Forced Tech Transfer" itself is a meaningless topic. The only time that such a thing can actually be an issue is when a foreign company has a particular IP which they can't find any meaningful market other than China, and such an IP itself is not forbiddingly complicated enough that a Chinese company can't develop or "steal" with a bit of effort. In this case, it is actually in the financial benefit for the owner of this tech to sell the IP to a Chinese company for a good price as soon as possible, because it would be obvious that they can't manufacture the item outside of China at a profitable cost level. And the main issue is that the owner of these company felt that they are at an disadvantage to negotiate for good price for their IP.

If you look at it this way, you will understand that "Forced Tech Transfer" is a actually a niche and very uncommon practice in China. I believe this is only a rhetoric "hit-job", in which it's not really a real problem, but the narratives of it fits into the whole anti-China agenda. Therefore, in a real China-US rivalry/competition, it would foolish to waste your time dealing with a non-issue. Additionally, it would actually be in China's interest to prevent "forced tech transfer", because this will encourage more international companies to invest money in developing technology that caters specifically to the Chinese market. If they can't maximize on profit for such investment, it would discourage them for doing such.

Because of the efficiency of the Chinese manufacturing industry, most foreign companies that develops tech/IP primarily for the Chinese market will natural opt for manufacturing in China. This will mean that technically, they will become at least partially a Chinese company, if they don't outsource part of all of their production to the local Chinese company.
 
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jimmyjames30x30

Junior Member
Registered Member
No matter how you dice it up, the truth of the matter is this is a MAJOR climb down by POTUS!

The MSM can spin away all they like.

The fact is Trump, in trying to bend China's will by threatening tariffs by 15th Dec if no deal (let's not forget, it was design to get all his demands met) is on the table! And now has to retract that threat is the epitomy of climb down in anyones book!

I mean where's the deal on "forced tech transfer", espionage stealing of tech". "unfair subsidies", etc?

"Espionage stealing of tech" is another one of those issues which has more rhetoric/propaganda value than actual value. Because you can't never truly erect a meaningful mechanism to prevent it. The US can keep on saying this, and keep on using this as a excuse to bash China. It might cater to the nationalistic domestic US audience, but the US would be stupid if they really try to solve such an issue. It is like preventing a thought-crime: impossible to do, because how do you even know what a person is thinking about?

If the US really want to prevent "espionage, stealing of tech" from China, they US would have to liquidate China's sovereignty. This will mean that all Chinese government institution will become subordinate institution of the US, even this is not really enough. This would mean that the US and China would have to become one country. Even colonizing China will not be enough, because history has shown us many examples of colonies breaking away, or covertly spying on their suzerain nation. China will have to become one with the US, in order to totally solve the "espionage, stealing of tech" issue.
 

jimmyjames30x30

Junior Member
Registered Member
No matter how you dice it up, the truth of the matter is this is a MAJOR climb down by POTUS!

The MSM can spin away all they like.

The fact is Trump, in trying to bend China's will by threatening tariffs by 15th Dec if no deal (let's not forget, it was design to get all his demands met) is on the table! And now has to retract that threat is the epitomy of climb down in anyones book!

I mean where's the deal on "forced tech transfer", espionage stealing of tech". "unfair subsidies", etc?

The real issue is so called "unfair subsidies". In fact, "unfair subsidies" only barely touches on the core issue of the "China Problem" facing the US. What really scares the US is the collectivist state-capitalist structure of China. This is the reason they want to dismantle the PRC and the CCP. Such a collectivist system has the ability to mobilize and command a vast range of the human, material and natural resources across the entire body of the Chinese civilization to very deep level. In a "democratic" system as advocated by the West, no government (other than the US) can really mobilize and command their own nation and population to such a degree, they are internally divided, under the principle of "check and balance". China, on the other hand, don't have such a systematic internal division.

For example, if let say Germany and France forms a country called "Franco-Germany", and they decide to develop an strong aviation industry independent of the US, and such a endeavor will take more than 15 years to realize. This will be perceived as a threat to the US, and what the US will do, is to ally with (and support) the opposition parties in "Franco-Germany" to sack and stall such an endeavor. They will also use interest group within "Franco-Germany" to create turmoil (protests) and legal battles to create problems for endeavor. Both of these will stall the endeavor and lengthen it to 25 years to realize. Last of all, since this "Franco-Germany" is democratic, and their president have limited terms, their endeavor will end as they term ends or loses their election.

Of course, advocates of the democratic system will say that it is righteous for oppositions to check and balance the incumbent government, as the presence of opposition proves that such an endeavor does not have the consent of the majority populace. Well, the problem is that most important projects and endeavors that collectively benefits the general population in the long run, has a certain cost and price to pay in the short run. There will always be people whose interest is hurt in the process, and often times, large project hurts the short term benefits of the majority population. Of course, if your propaganda machine is strong enough, you can persuade the people into accepting the short term losses for long term gain. But in a free society, external (foreign) interest groups could undo the work of your propaganda machine and sack your population's support for your project.

However, in a country like a China, where the leadership/government has enough command over the entirety of the population, they can push through a project much better. First because they can command a lot more resources. Using such resources, they can persuade and negotiate with powerful domestic interest groups a lot better than the fictional “Franco-Germany”. Secondly, they can sever the ties between the US and those of China's internal interest groups which might suffer losses because of the project, preventing powerful opposition forces (which has shared interest with the US) from forming. Thirdly, because they have more resources and command a larger chunk of their own society than the fictional "Franco-Germany", they can also compensate and negotiate with the numerous smaller interest groups and stake holders that might be affected by the project.

Therefore, what the US really want to get rid of, is this massive collective state-capitalist system of China. They want dismantle it. Because "unfair subsidies" alone is only a term of technicality. It will be a nightmare and a mission-impossible to effective stop de facto "unfair subsides" using legal language, even if China is willing to oblige and work with the US. Because there are thousands of ways to pump money into companies. This will be a game of endurance that the US will eventually lose, and worse it will be a much greater waste of time and resources for the US that only integrates US and China more and more.
 

Appix

Senior Member
Registered Member
I'm not blowed away how the CCP is dealing with Trump and his hawks. They do not fight back but hell give them even a phase one deal with all the agression of the past 1,5 years? WTF! This phase one deal that still must be signed (I hope the CCP throw it in the garbage bin in January to win some several weeks of tranquility) will embolden them hugely to display more agression towards China. The CCP should grow some balls and fast and fight for the interest of Chinese peoples or otherwise there will be another century of humilation.
 

jimmyjames30x30

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm not blowed away how the CCP is dealing with Trump and his hawks. They do not fight back but hell give them even a phase one deal with all the agression of the past 1,5 years? WTF! This phase one deal that still must be signed (I hope the CCP throw it in the garbage bin in January to win some several weeks of tranquility) will embolden them hugely to display more agression towards China. The CCP should grow some balls and fast and fight for the interest of Chinese peoples or otherwise there will be another century of humilation.

I couldn't disagree more. First of all, the US is a superpower. The core power of a superpower is its brain power. Your rhetoric reeks of Japanese kamikaze fanaticism. The US didn't pick fight with China out of a whim. The US pick fight with China the same reason it fought British Empire, Spain, Germany, Japan and USSR. This is a strategic move that the US will eventually make, regardless of what China does. The US didn't pick a fight with China out of opportunism, this decision to fight China is based on the fundamental principle of US foreign policy and global strategy. The US will need to suppress any emerging challenger power regardless of who they are. Any endeavor of trying to scare and discourage the US from aggression is as stupid as Japanese attack on pearl harbor. The Japanese thought that a surprise attack will force the US to the negotiating table and make the US opt for neutrality. They totally misread the US.

China, on the other hand, knows very well what the US bottom line is. Therefore, China does NOT in any way perceive this conflict/competition with the US to be a short war. This will be a long march, a war of attrition. Both nation has enough resources to regroup even after a huge defeat. If China somehow obtain a early decisive victory, what do you think will happen? Let me tell you, it will antagonize and provoke the US more and more: this will only aggressively force the US to drastically change its own tactic and approach, even revolutionize its method of attack, or undergo drastic social reform and changes to increase its effectiveness.

China can only win this war, if it can effectively draw the US into a lengthy and complex mess of a draining pit. This draining pit drains time. The worst thing China can do is go give the US a rude awakening. China need to keep the US in a divided and chaotic state of mind, China also need to keep the US to put time and resources in meaningless quarrels the like of "forced technological transfer", "espionage", "human rights", etc. It needs to keep the US in a constant state of internal debate over whether the deal is good enough for the US.

The worst thing that can happen, is for China to give the US a rude awakening, and effective allow the US to transform itself into a war time command economy, with a right-wing fascist collectivist system whose ideology is hell-bent on destroy China and the Chinese as how Hitler wants to destroy Bolshevism and Jews.
 

jimmyjames30x30

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm not blowed away how the CCP is dealing with Trump and his hawks. They do not fight back but hell give them even a phase one deal with all the agression of the past 1,5 years? WTF! This phase one deal that still must be signed (I hope the CCP throw it in the garbage bin in January to win some several weeks of tranquility) will embolden them hugely to display more agression towards China. The CCP should grow some balls and fast and fight for the interest of Chinese peoples or otherwise there will be another century of humilation.

Trump is an idiot to think that China buying massive amount of US goods is somehow a good thing for the US. No, it's not. It's not as long as the US perceives China as a emerging superpower and challenger nation. China is a challenger nation and an emerging superpower. Any debate that argue back and forth with no conclusion on whether China is or not a emerging superpower and challenger nation benefits China, because it divides the US public's (and elite's) perception of China. Democracy loves division, let them drown in their division.

China buying more US goods and opening the financial market to US firms will only deepen the connection between the US and China, giving both sides more stake in the other. This effectively increases and deepens the integration between the two. This prevents the US from transforming into a full blown war-time command economy, that which devastated the Japan Empire and the Nazis in WW2. China needs time in a state of relative peace (one which China can use diplomacy to its max). Integration provides and maintains that state of relative peace.

China need to drag the US's attention to non-core issues like Hong Kong protest, Taiwan independence, Human rights, Xinjiang issue. All of which are on the home turf of China. The home turf of China saved the Chinese people again and again and again, it will always save the Chinese people.
 
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