For sure taking into account NK's nuclear weapons and SK's US military installations, however at its core the issue is the Korean civil war and the Koreans have every right to put their own interests above those of intervening powers. That said, good luck to them.
China's strategy in Korean peninsula
- Thread starter Phead128
- Start date
For sure taking into account NK's nuclear weapons and SK's US military installations, however at its core the issue is the Korean civil war and the Koreans have every right to put their own interests above those of intervening powers. That said, good luck to them.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
So far so good... It's like watching a baby take its first steps. Every one is so precious and you know the little bugger could trip and fall on his face any moment!
That said, interesting thing in green. Seems Pence has lost his trouble-maker spirit after being trounced by Kim Yo Jong in PR, but it wouldn't be the first time (even in recent memory) where a US official has stated the will to communicate with NK without preconditions only to have his leash yanked by the Pentagon (not that the US deserves to have a voice on an inter-Korean issue anyway).
North Korea leader impressed with South's delegation welcome
YOUKYUNG LEE (Associated Press)
•February 12, 2018
North Korea leader impressed with South's delegation welcome
A fan wears cap with small flags as he watches during the third period of the preliminary round of the women's hockey game between Sweden and the combined Koreas at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Gangneung, South Korea, Monday, Feb. 12, 2018. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said Tuesday it is important to continue a reconciliatory mood between the Koreas and expressed satisfaction with the North Korean delegation's visit to the South, in his first remarks since the high-level guests led by his sister returned to the North.
The North's state-owned Korean Central News Agency reported that Kim was impressed with Seoul's welcome and treatment of the high-level delegation. He expressed gratitude to the South for ''making their possible and sincere efforts'' for their guests from the North.
Kim emphasized the importance of continuing dialogue between two Koreas, according to the North's official news agency.
North Korea sent its nominal head of state and Kim's sister Kim Yo Jong, who extended an invitation to South Korean President Moon Jae-in to visit Pyongyang for a summit in the near future.
Moon didn't immediately accept the North Korean offer.
He said the Koreas should create an environment so that a meeting of the two leaders could take place. He also called for a quick resumption of dialogue between North Korea and the United States, apparently aware that being friendly with the North could alienate an American ally critical to the defense of the South.
The North delegation returned home Sunday night. During a three-day visit, the delegation members sat among world dignitaries including the U.S. Vice President Mike Pence at the opening ceremony of Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Games, had lunch with Moon at his presidential palace and joined Moon in cheering for the first-ever inter-Korean Olympic team as it debuted in the women's ice hockey tournament.
The North Koreans were the subject of intense media scrutiny during their busy schedule visiting Seoul and the Olympic towns of Pyeongchang and Gangneung.
South Koreans were especially fascinated by Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, who seemed relaxed and smiled most of the time.
The 30 year-old, an increasingly prominent figure in her older brother's government, was the North's first ruling family to visit the South since the end of the Korean War.
South Korean media closely documented every move and gesture of the North Korean leader's younger sister, commenting on everything from the purse she carried to her writing style in a message she left in the presidential palace guest book.
An hour before the North Korean news agency report, Pence declared that the U.S. is open for talks without preconditions with nuclear North Korea, in a subtle shift in White House policy.
The vice president's remarks provided a little more leverage for South Korea in its path-finding outreach to the North and could reduce potential strains in the U.S.-South Korean alliance.
But diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang won't start unless Kim Jong Un wants it to.
While the North Korean dictator, who has yet to meet a foreign leader, has invited the South Korean president for a rare summit, Kim has given no sign of being ready to talk to the U.S.
That said, interesting thing in green. Seems Pence has lost his trouble-maker spirit after being trounced by Kim Yo Jong in PR, but it wouldn't be the first time (even in recent memory) where a US official has stated the will to communicate with NK without preconditions only to have his leash yanked by the Pentagon (not that the US deserves to have a voice on an inter-Korean issue anyway).
North Korea leader impressed with South's delegation welcome
YOUKYUNG LEE (Associated Press)
•February 12, 2018
North Korea leader impressed with South's delegation welcome
A fan wears cap with small flags as he watches during the third period of the preliminary round of the women's hockey game between Sweden and the combined Koreas at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Gangneung, South Korea, Monday, Feb. 12, 2018. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said Tuesday it is important to continue a reconciliatory mood between the Koreas and expressed satisfaction with the North Korean delegation's visit to the South, in his first remarks since the high-level guests led by his sister returned to the North.
The North's state-owned Korean Central News Agency reported that Kim was impressed with Seoul's welcome and treatment of the high-level delegation. He expressed gratitude to the South for ''making their possible and sincere efforts'' for their guests from the North.
Kim emphasized the importance of continuing dialogue between two Koreas, according to the North's official news agency.
North Korea sent its nominal head of state and Kim's sister Kim Yo Jong, who extended an invitation to South Korean President Moon Jae-in to visit Pyongyang for a summit in the near future.
Moon didn't immediately accept the North Korean offer.
He said the Koreas should create an environment so that a meeting of the two leaders could take place. He also called for a quick resumption of dialogue between North Korea and the United States, apparently aware that being friendly with the North could alienate an American ally critical to the defense of the South.
The North delegation returned home Sunday night. During a three-day visit, the delegation members sat among world dignitaries including the U.S. Vice President Mike Pence at the opening ceremony of Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Games, had lunch with Moon at his presidential palace and joined Moon in cheering for the first-ever inter-Korean Olympic team as it debuted in the women's ice hockey tournament.
The North Koreans were the subject of intense media scrutiny during their busy schedule visiting Seoul and the Olympic towns of Pyeongchang and Gangneung.
South Koreans were especially fascinated by Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, who seemed relaxed and smiled most of the time.
The 30 year-old, an increasingly prominent figure in her older brother's government, was the North's first ruling family to visit the South since the end of the Korean War.
South Korean media closely documented every move and gesture of the North Korean leader's younger sister, commenting on everything from the purse she carried to her writing style in a message she left in the presidential palace guest book.
An hour before the North Korean news agency report, Pence declared that the U.S. is open for talks without preconditions with nuclear North Korea, in a subtle shift in White House policy.
The vice president's remarks provided a little more leverage for South Korea in its path-finding outreach to the North and could reduce potential strains in the U.S.-South Korean alliance.
But diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang won't start unless Kim Jong Un wants it to.
While the North Korean dictator, who has yet to meet a foreign leader, has invited the South Korean president for a rare summit, Kim has given no sign of being ready to talk to the U.S.
Jura The idiot
General
Why you think that it is a matter of survival for the US?
broadsword
Brigadier
The Americans did not call a valley during the Korean War 'Death Valley' for nothing.
I think Fat Kim have outplayed US in this round. He escalates tension with Trump, US follows by more escalation, then all of sudden Kim decide to de-escalates and play nice with SK.
And of course Kim knows how Moon wants good relations with NK, that's why he Moon immediately took up the offer, what put it over the top is the Olympic and Kim's own sister visiting SK playing nice as well.
All the main while this sharp turn of event confuses US so much that it is still sticking to the escalation course.... which only make US looks like a bully and hostile....
But there more!!!! Because everyday that goes by, the closer NK perfecting the ICBM technology that reaches US mainland so US really have no choice but to keep the tension up and this of course make US looks bad.
US's diplomats now I think are thinking of 2 things.
1. Really really upsets at Moon for playing buddy buddy with Kim
2. Really really hope Kim goes back on this crazy threats so US can go ahead play the other role.
And of course Kim knows how Moon wants good relations with NK, that's why he Moon immediately took up the offer, what put it over the top is the Olympic and Kim's own sister visiting SK playing nice as well.
All the main while this sharp turn of event confuses US so much that it is still sticking to the escalation course.... which only make US looks like a bully and hostile....
But there more!!!! Because everyday that goes by, the closer NK perfecting the ICBM technology that reaches US mainland so US really have no choice but to keep the tension up and this of course make US looks bad.
US's diplomats now I think are thinking of 2 things.
1. Really really upsets at Moon for playing buddy buddy with Kim
2. Really really hope Kim goes back on this crazy threats so US can go ahead play the other role.
With regards to the Bolded part.
US was the first to offer massive concessions, namely 1) US drops 'NK denuclearization' as precondition for talks , which is huge since NK has been rejecting any precondition for talks for over decade. The second US concession was public announce of Four No's. 2) US Tillerson's Four No's (US doesn't seek regime change, collapse of regime, accelerated reunification, or excuse to send military above 38th parallel)
It was only after these massive US concessions (which occurred after the latest ICBM in Sep), that NK decided to accept dialogue and de-escalate.
So it was US that made the first move towards dialogue. NK merely responded to the first offer by US, it wasn't a strategic concession by NK, but a concession by US that led to talks.
I'm pretty sure you got the time table wrong, NK didn't really calm down after Tillerson offer those to him, instead he started his smack with Trump ever more, and after Tillerson's offer NK's rocket launch actually increased. The escalation was right up to the point of the Olympics.
There are well document report of Pence trying to isolate NK but failed, so it was obvious that NK's action caught US off-guard, but in any case, the problem still exists. Everyday goes by NK ICBM nuke program gets better and puts US in ever more disadvantage, while NK have not yet offer any concession to US whatsoever.
NK never fired a single ballistic missile after Tillerson's offer of dropping denuclearization as precondition for talks. Your timeline is wrong.
The timeline is this:
- Trump Tweets: "It won't happen [nuclear-tipped NK ICBMs]" -
- Trump Inaugurated as President -
- First NK missile launch of Trump presidency -
- < many NK missile tests (~12 tests) between >
- Trump fires Cruise Missile against Syria -
- NK fires ICBM-range during July 4th -
- Trump "Fire and Fury" -
- NK missile OVER Japan -
- Hydrogen bomb test -
- NK missile OVER Japan again -
- Trump "Totally Destroy NK" speech at UN -
- NK fires ICBM-range that can hit USA -
- Tillerson offers to drop denuclearization as precondition of Talks -
- Kim Jong Un offers Dialogue & Olive Branch during New Years speech -
- NK - SK talks lead to Olympic breakthrough -
- SK President meets Kim Yong Nam and Kim Yo Jong -
- .... TBD
It was the US that made massive concessions first that paved way for NK to accept talks. NK didn't de-escalate first, it was the US that recognized "denuclearization as precondition" was unrealistic fantasy, and dropped it first. That's why less than 2 weeks after Tillerson's offer, the Kim Jong Un offered an Olympic olive branch during the New Years Speech.
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manqiangrexue
Brigadier
I think this timeline is actually coincidence and not caused by Tillerson's offer because it was recanted almost as quickly as it was given. Tillerson actually didn't have Pentagon approval to make that offer so the Pentagon yanked his lease in for saying that (). However, it is worthy to note that Pence made the same offer again (https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/chinas-strategy-in-korean-peninsula.t6680/page-143#post-495817) after his PR defeat by Kim Yo Jong so the US could have more recently became aware that this precondition was always a fantasy and becoming more fantastical as NK progresses.
Also, NK accidentally blew up their own junk once (AKA self-nuked) so that could also lead to a stall in their tests. ()
I agree with your ultimate conclusion, though, that NK is progressing and the US is getting nowhere.