broadsword
Brigadier
A word of advice. Bringing up the Dalai Lama is not going to help you push your point. It weakens your case.
China's strategy in Korean peninsula
- Thread starter Phead128
- Start date
A word of advice. Bringing up the Dalai Lama is not going to help you push your point. It weakens your case.
D
Deleted member 13312
Guest
No offense, but the entire issue on the Korean peninsular can be watered down into 1 simple sentence.
Each side (China and the US) has vested interests to see the Korean peninsular crisis be settled according to their terms, while both North and South Korea gets the short end of the stick in this bargain no matter which side wins.
US would never dare send troops above the 38th parallel without explicit approval and permission from China.
Any troop movement into NK (or SK for that matter) requires the consent of the two superpowers.
If US were to unilaterally send troops into NK without consent and approval of China, it would be considered a violation of Chinese sphere of influence, and a challenge to Chinese sphere of influence. The result would be China sending an expeditionary force to expel US forces from Pyongyang capital region.
It would be a repeat of First Sino-Japanese war, because to wrestle NK out of China's suzerainty, you need to defeat China in a war in order to recognize NK's complete military independence from China alliance.
Trump has proven to be empty bluster. Trump again is untrustworthy with his empty bluster, he will never follow on his hard rhetoric with actual meaningful attack on NK beyond mere words.
Any troop movement into NK (or SK for that matter) requires the consent of the two superpowers.
If US were to unilaterally send troops into NK without consent and approval of China, it would be considered a violation of Chinese sphere of influence, and a challenge to Chinese sphere of influence. The result would be China sending an expeditionary force to expel US forces from Pyongyang capital region.
It would be a repeat of First Sino-Japanese war, because to wrestle NK out of China's suzerainty, you need to defeat China in a war in order to recognize NK's complete military independence from China alliance.
Trump has proven to be empty bluster. Trump again is untrustworthy with his empty bluster, he will never follow on his hard rhetoric with actual meaningful attack on NK beyond mere words.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Well as with many countries in the Far East where they want to make a lot of money and being better-off than their neighbors is nationalistically important, they're dependent on foreign markets so they can make that money. If they wanted to be about living peacefully on their own, then don't think about how your companies are going to make money from foreign markets. Smaller countries like South Korea need the weight of a bigger power in the US to defend their interests and to gain access to its market and leverage access into other markets. How does that happen? Follow along with what the US wants. North Korea needs China to maintain its minimal survival. Since the US seeks regime change in China because what's happening in the Koreas is really about China in the end, South Korea is guilty by association in the US foreign policy of regime change. China is naturally going to be a counterweight to the US's agenda. And let's not forget while North Korea wants to takeover the South, South Korea hypocritically too wants to takeover the North. Can they do all those things on their own? Certainly not if Koreans are charging that they want to be left alone and foreign powers are interfering.
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US interest is more of a hobby ( empire building, the favourite free time activity of psychopats : ) , and the Chinee interest is a matter of survaival.
If China allowed the US to dictate the terms of Korean reunification, it will not bode well for Chinese reunification with Taiwan. Taiwan may be emboldened to declare independence if Seoul-led unified Korea allied with US was a reality, or emboldened to develop nuclear weapons and sign a defense treaty with US.
Basically, the Korean reunification is inextricably linked to the Chinese reunification with Taiwan.
Common factors with Korea & Taiwan reunification:
a) Korea was divided by US and USSR in 1945, civil war, and foreign (read: US/China intervention) in 1950.
b) China was divided due to civil war in 1949 and foreign (read: US intervention) in 1950, 1955, 1958, and 1996.
c) US and China are military stakeholders in Korea by alliance.
d) US and China are military stakeholders in Taiwan issue by alliance or primary actors.
So you can't resolve Korean reunification without a broader encapsulation of regional issues like Chinese-Taiwan reunification. Afterall, Korean war is a proxy war, it's a relatively minor war as part of the broader "Cold War" conflict.
Basically, the Korean reunification is inextricably linked to the Chinese reunification with Taiwan.
Common factors with Korea & Taiwan reunification:
a) Korea was divided by US and USSR in 1945, civil war, and foreign (read: US/China intervention) in 1950.
b) China was divided due to civil war in 1949 and foreign (read: US intervention) in 1950, 1955, 1958, and 1996.
c) US and China are military stakeholders in Korea by alliance.
d) US and China are military stakeholders in Taiwan issue by alliance or primary actors.
So you can't resolve Korean reunification without a broader encapsulation of regional issues like Chinese-Taiwan reunification. Afterall, Korean war is a proxy war, it's a relatively minor war as part of the broader "Cold War" conflict.
The US rather give up SK to China than to let Taiwan to have any allied status with China.
As soon as the Chinese navy has uncrestricted/ controlled access to the pacific ocean the whole US naval strategy has to be changed.
The panama canal transport route is quite sensitive for any naval force, and the coastal lines of hte US so long it require lot of reasources to protect it.
As soon as the Chinese navy has uncrestricted/ controlled access to the pacific ocean the whole US naval strategy has to be changed.
The panama canal transport route is quite sensitive for any naval force, and the coastal lines of hte US so long it require lot of reasources to protect it.
China may give approval to Seoul-led unified Korea by withdrawing troops from Pyongyang capital region (post-collapse) in exchange for Seoul-led unified Korea signing a mutual defense pact with China.
I don't envision any other scenario where "peaceful unification" can occur except China handing NK to SK (post-collapse) in exchange for Seoul-Beijing alliance against re-militarized Japan. This requires an independent foreign policy from Seoul, which depends on the stage of Chinese economic development, whether SK wants to throw their lot in with China.
I don't envision any other scenario where "peaceful unification" can occur except China handing NK to SK (post-collapse) in exchange for Seoul-Beijing alliance against re-militarized Japan. This requires an independent foreign policy from Seoul, which depends on the stage of Chinese economic development, whether SK wants to throw their lot in with China.
broadsword
Brigadier
It is a matter of survival to all parties far and near.