China's SCS Strategy Thread

Lethe

Lethe

Captain
Relatedly, here are some regional population proportions I did a few years back, drawing on historical estimates and the UN's 2013 World Population Projections:

Proportion of Total Human Population

Africa
1900: 8%
1950: 9%
2014: 16%
2100: 39%

Europe
1900: 25%
1950: 22%
2014: 10%
2100: 6%

East Asia
1950: 26%
2014: 23%
2100: 12%

South Asia
1950: 20%
2014: 25%
2100: 20%

So the big picture story for regional human population distribution in the 21st century is that Africa is gobbling up humanshare, mostly from East Asia, but also from Europe which is continuing its long, slow decline from its heyday at the end of the 19th century.

The Americas, South-East Asia, West Asia, and Oceania are all fairly static and uninteresting (at this 'big picture' level of analysis).
 
Lethe

Lethe

Captain
Using latest (2017 edn.) projection series:

Africa
2017: 16.6%
2050: 25.9%
2100: 39.9%

East Asia
2017: 21.8%
2050: 16.2%
2100: 10.7%

South Asia
2017: 24.8%
2050: 24.
 
D

delft

Brigadier
From
China has practiced bombing runs targeting Guam, US says
13 hours ago
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“The PRC is practicing attacks on Guam,” the officials said, with those bombers also flying around Hawaii, they said.
Click to expand...
Why did nobody ever told me about Hawaii?
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
delft said:
From
China has practiced bombing runs targeting Guam, US says
13 hours ago
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

“The PRC is practicing attacks on Guam,” the officials said, with those bombers also flying around Hawaii, they said.
Click to expand...
Why did nobody ever told me about Hawaii?
Click to expand...
delft I can't see the particular quote inside the link you provided
(I used Ctrl-F with several combinations of words you quoted)
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Lethe said:
Relatedly, here are some regional population proportions I did a few years back, drawing on historical estimates and the UN's 2013 World Population Projections:

Proportion of Total Human Population

Africa
1900: 8%
1950: 9%
2014: 16%
2100: 39%

Europe
1900: 25%
1950: 22%
2014: 10%
2100: 6%

East Asia
1950: 26%
2014: 23%
2100: 12%

South Asia
1950: 20%
2014: 25%
2100: 20%

So the big picture story for regional human population distribution in the 21st century is that Africa is gobbling up humanshare, mostly from East Asia, but also from Europe which is continuing its long, slow decline from its heyday at the end of the 19th century.

The Americas, South-East Asia, West Asia, and Oceania are all fairly static and uninteresting (at this 'big picture' level of analysis).
Click to expand...

The problem with these kinds of trend projections is that it does not take into account the causes of population booms and declines

Populations never changes in a vacuum. It is always in response to the environment. The pattern typically goes like this: difficult environment increases birth rate but also increases infant mortality. A good environment decreases infant mortality but also birth rate. As a society transitions from a difficult environment to a good one, infant mortality drops first and birth rate takes a while to change. This results in a transition period where population soars, but that boom is never permanent.

There are hard limits to population based on land area and technology. There are also soft limits such as political stability and economic wealth. Population will fluctuate rapidly based on the soft limits, but will cap out on the hard limits.
 
P

PanAsian

Major
Jura said:
well I know Guam isn't in the SCS but still
China has practiced bombing runs targeting Guam, US says
13 hours ago
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Click to expand...

Talk about just mentioning half the story. Looks like China is pushing back against the long time US campaign of aggression of directly and instigating others to militarize air and maritime space around China's periphery including unilateral ADIZs, close-in surveillance, maritime claim challenges, gunboat diplomacy with naval fleets and bomber formations, massive forward military basing, etc.
 
Lethe

Lethe

Captain
solarz said:
Populations never changes in a vacuum. It is always in response to the environment. The pattern typically goes like this: difficult environment increases birth rate but also increases infant mortality. A good environment decreases infant mortality but also birth rate. As a society transitions from a difficult environment to a good one, infant mortality drops first and birth rate takes a while to change. This results in a transition period where population soars, but that boom is never permanent.
Click to expand...

The projections are made according to certain assumptions about future birth rates and death rates (and also levels of immigration/emigration) which are derived from current figures and modified according to patterns of demographic transition seen elsewhere. As you say the general pattern for developing societies is for improvements in public health and general medicine to simultaneously reduce maternal, infant and child mortality, while increasing average life expectancy (reducing death rates), these effects combining to produce a population boom. Over time, as development continues, the economic basis for large families diminishes, producing changes in cultural norms, coupled with increased availability of family planning methods, all of which gradually reduce the birth rate to replacement or below-replacement level. The rate at which different societies go through the various facets of this transition depends upon their culture and specific political environment, but at this point it seems fairly well established. Essentially, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, and Africa are situated at different points of the demographic transition, resulting in their differing future projections. One very crude way of illustrating that by is looking at the Projected Regional Population Peaks:

Europe: 2021 (would've been 30yrs earlier but for immigration...)
East Asia: 2028
South Asia: 2064
Africa: growing beyond 2100

There are hard limits to population based on land area and technology. There are also soft limits such as political stability and economic wealth. Population will fluctuate rapidly based on the soft limits, but will cap out on the hard limits.
Click to expand...

Yes, things like famine causing starvation, prolonged civil war, etc. are outside the scope of the projections.
 
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