China Flanker Thread II

[Tam]

Yeap, here we go, back to the nationalistic chest thumping. And one wonders why people sometimes have a low opinion on China watchers at times.
To cut the drivel short, I never claimed that China is currently behind the curve. Quite the contrary, I think that its current line of fighters are strong challengers, but they also exist in a tough neighborhood.
Japan and South Korea also have their own considerable military industry, no doubt they have assistance from the US on many an occasion. But credit must also be given to them making the most of it.

The assistance from the US is limited, as the US also tries to quench down every Korean and Japanese indigenous project that is regarded as Plan B to the straight American alternatives. This means both countries have lines of indigenous tanks, antiship missiles, anti-air missiles, combat management systems, even SAMs. The Japanese for example, has their own version of ESSM developed but the US got that thrown in the back burner, forcing the Japanese to buy ESSMs. In some ways, at least in the naval side, the Koreans are better off than the Japanese, since the Koreans could make it possible to build an entire warship completely without depending on any American technology, whereas the Japanese are still missing components within the chain, for example, their own VLS.

 

[Deleted member 13312]

Russians are pretty awful for support, maintenance and supplying parts. They use that as cards to control their client.

The Chinese are so much better off with their unlicensed J-11s than let's say the Indians with their licensed Su-30MKIs. In fact the Indians are so p*ssed off with the Russians they are also canceling ties on the fifth generation project.

Ka-50 and Tu-22M aren't that important. If the Chinese really wanted them, regardless of the Su-27 IP infringement, the Russians will still sell it to them.

Well every nation worth its salt would be using arms sales as a form of control for their clients. So I won't singled out the Russians on that one. Plus it is a pretty well documented fact that the Indians make for terrible business partners, bureaucratic red tape and unrealistic expectations have sunk more ventures then I care count.
In most cases, when there is a steady cash and a reasonable client. The Russians usually deliver on their products. Russo-Sino cooperation would have help to speed up China's modernization by a fair amount of time and for less costs.

 

[ougoah]

PLAAF considered the Mig-21s the Soviets supplied the PRC to be far inferior to the Soviet version. Understandably, the Soviets would not want to release to China their best frontline fighter. However, considering the history of Soviet and Russian arms dealers and manufacturers supplying inferior products (enforced by law or otherwise), it is also understandable that China will want to learn Soviet and Russian military industry technologies and try to build their own so that they can create non-export grade level products that at least approach the levels of competency the original Soviet types achieved. The smart Russians understand this and know that China will not be happy just buying endless lines of their export grade military products that are engineered to not perform, if they work at all.

Both Ka-50 and Tu-22M would be of little use to China in the 90s and 00s. China did not have any way to use offensive weapons and never had the wish back then. It still isn't in a position to do so even if they wanted to be "invasive" today. H-xx and JH-xx will probably arrive just in time as platforms that help bolster China's regional dominance in the coming decades. PRC has no current intention or ability to be a global power a la USA. The only indicator of this intention is shown in the number of foreign military bases a nation has and maybe how many carriers they field. What good would Tu-22M have in the last 20 years? Also are Russian-Chinese relations today not already the warmest they've ever been except for maybe Mao-Stalin era? Flanker copying has done absolutely nothing to cool relations to the vast majority. It has however brought China the ability to create as many capable front line fighters as they wish and upgrade them according to domestic technologies and weaponry, severing the over-reliance on importing Russian munitions for flanker platforms and encouraging development of Chinese munitions. This move alone would have given Chinese missile developers 10 years at least over the alternative of continuing to rely on buying R-77s etc.

 

[ougoah]

Well every nation worth its salt would be using arms sales as a form of control for their clients. So I won't singled out the Russians on that one. Plus it is a pretty well documented fact that the Indians make for terrible business partners, bureaucratic red tape and unrealistic expectations have sunk more ventures then I care count.
In most cases, when there is a steady cash and a reasonable client. The Russians usually deliver on their products. Russo-Sino cooperation would have help to speed up China's modernization by a fair amount of time and for less costs.

True that most nations exporting military equipment especially high-end technologies like fighters and bombers, would use it to leverage their political interests. I don't think anyway is calling Russia out for that, just stating facts that independence needs to happen for China and it needed to start somewhere, with or without short-term pains, losses, and costs in time. China adapting the flanker platform is no different to China adapting the Mig-21. Completely taking apart Russian versions and kits and evaluating then correcting flaws that were purposefully built into it. China had the ability to create their copies of flankers. Of course they would take that path. Other nations capable of this copying feat have done so in the past. Domesticating the flanker has helped China immensely and if it is/was at the cost of Russian favour, it has been paid back in many other ways and Russia still continues to find favour and support from China on multiple fronts. I don't think Russians can reasonably be bitter over the sino-flanker fiasco. They've even purchased Su-30MK2s and Su-35s (but of course that's all just to continue copying upgraded flankers... totally not for good-will at all). I don't recall brits being vocal about soviets copying the Rolls Royce RB.41.

Russo-Sino cooperation on these fronts would have only slowed China's domestic development down. Maybe at the cost of getting better equipment faster but so many industries would not have enjoyed the financing and encouragement they did without this cooperation and today there are certain areas where China at least matches the technical abilities of Russia and the trends show China's MIC will eventually be more successful than Russia's. Chinese intentions have always been establishing some sort of self reliance. If one day in the future, the Russian nation completely recovers from the damages done on it in the 20th century (and current US actions) and re-establishes its MIC dominance, China will likely return as an investor and customer for Russian products not available from Chinese MIC. At least until the product is reverse-engineered

 

[Tam]

Well every nation worth its salt would be using arms sales as a form of control for their clients. So I won't singled out the Russians on that one. Plus it is a pretty well documented fact that the Indians make for terrible business partners, bureaucratic red tape and unrealistic expectations have sunk more ventures then I care count.
In most cases, when there is a steady cash and a reasonable client. The Russians usually deliver on their products. Russo-Sino cooperation would have help to speed up China's modernization by a fair amount of time and for less costs.

The lack of support for products is something reported by both Chinese and Indian, so that's beyond bureaucracy.

Another thing the Chinese dislike is that the Russians are only willing to provide more advanced technology in smaller doses, hence the Su-30MKK compared to India getting the more advanced Su-30MKI. It was pretty obvious at some point that the Chinese had better technology than what the Russians are willing to sell to them. Both the Su-27SK, J-11, J-11A, Su-30MKK and Su-30MK2 tech are behind that of the J-11B, and for that matter, even the J-10.

 

[ougoah]

The lack of support for products is something reported by both Chinese and Indian, so that's beyond bureaucracy.

Another thing the Chinese dislike is that the Russians are only willing to provide more advanced technology in smaller doses, hence the Su-30MKK compared to India getting the more advanced Su-30MKI. It was pretty obvious at some point that the Chinese had better technology than what the Russians are willing to sell to them. Both the Su-27SK, J-11, J-11A, Su-30MKK and Su-30MK2 tech are behind that of the J-11B, and for that matter, even the J-10.

I'd like to know specifically how Su-30MK2 tech is behind J-11B and J-10?

 

[plawolf]

True but that can hardly be considered a plus for the Chinese, especially in terms of intellectual property integrity and such. One can say that the act of China producing unlicensed copies of the Su-27 had directly sunk several other potential deals with Russia, like for the Tu-22M and the Ka-50. Both of which would have been great force multipliers for China. Russo-Sino cooperation would have been much more successful.
At least Japan would have little difficulties in building more F-15s if they want to as there is little reason as to why the US would want to block such a move from an ally for a plane that they aren't actively making themselves.

China has said from the get go that the aim was to eventually raise domestic content in the J11 to 100%.

The Russians had no problem with that when they first signed the contracts because they vastly underestimated Chinese capabilities and thought it would take China so long to absorb the tech that once done, it would become obsolete and China would then need to buy the latest Russian Flanker version developed with Chinese money, and thus create a self-sustaining loop where Russia re-capitalised its defence industry with Chinese money.

But China advanced far quicker than Russia expected, not only cancelling the outstanding Su27 kits order, but also stopped Su30 purchases after delays and underwhelming performance of the MK2. There were no mention of broken contacts when all that happened.

Relations didn’t break down until Russia failed to deliver on its Il76 contract to China after repeated assurances and broken promises.

That resulted in China cancelling the whole contract, and Russia tried to turn the screws on China by stopping AL31 sales for sino Flankers to try and get China to reconsider.

As for the Tu22 or Ka50, there was never any real evidence of strong interest in those types from the China side. It was all Russian sources sayin China wanted them.

Chinese defence co-operation with Russia advanced as far and as deep as it could, because no nation would give you their crown jewles tech, just look at the F35 source code spat between the ‘special’ friends US and UK.

Russia would not have transferred core technologies no matter what (just look at how much India is on the hook as far as Russian support for their joint venture systems). That’s just the reality of the game.

As for Japan making more Eagles, that’s easier said than done seeing how the production line has been closed for decades in Japan. Are the tooling and machinery still even viable even if they have not already been scrapped? And there is also the bigger problem of skilled workers needed to run the line even if the machines are still in working order.

 

[Tam]

I'd like to know specifically how Su-30MK2 tech is behind J-11B and J-10?

Su-30MK2 is still using Twist Cassegrain for antenna.

See this example, for the Su-27. Also used on the MiG-23 and MiG-27.




This thing has relatively high side lobes, which makes it prone to ground clutter, and making it vulnerable to EW measures. Russians are still using Twist or Inverse Cassegrain antennas when Western jets like the F-14, F-15, and the F-16 are using Slotted Planar Arrays, which are relatively lighter, less complex and has much less wasted energy on side lobes. Because Cassegrain designs require two reflectors opposite of each other, there is some beam and signal blockage.

China's aviation industry has been using slotted planar arrays on JH-7 and J-8IIs with the first generation on these planes. J-7Es also have them. Some people like to call them Pulse Doppler. By the time the JH-7A, J-10As and J-11Bs have them, the slotted planar arrays have entered second generation.





J-11B is using slotted planar array.

If you have a technology chain for radar arrays its like:

Dipole -> Parabolic -> Cassegrain -> Twist Cassegrain -> Slotted Planar Array -> PESA -> AESA.

Naval radar still has a different perspective though, as older forms like dipole, parabolic, cassegrain, gregorian, twist cassegrain still has their uses in modern day.

 

[ougoah]

Quick googling suggests that both MKK and MK2 should have PESA radars. At least they should have been upgraded to PESA by now.

 

[Tam]

Quick googling suggests that both MKK and MK2 should have PESA radars. At least they should have been upgraded to PESA by now.

Not with any help from the Russians. More than possible the Chinese refitted them with their own radars.

Likely AESA, China literally skipped the PESA state.