American Economics Thread

Mnuchin And Mulvaney Release Joint Statement On Budget Results For Fiscal Year 2018
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"U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Mick Mulvaney today released details of the fiscal year (FY) 2018 final budget results. The deficit in FY 2018 was $779 billion, $113 billion more than in the prior fiscal year but $70 billion less than forecast in the FY 2019 Mid-Session Review (MSR). As a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the deficit was 3.9 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the previous year."

and so on
 
Tuesday at 8:33 AM
Mnuchin And Mulvaney Release Joint Statement On Budget Results For Fiscal Year 2018
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"U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Mick Mulvaney today released details of the fiscal year (FY) 2018 final budget results. The deficit in FY 2018 was $779 billion, $113 billion more than in the prior fiscal year but $70 billion less than forecast in the FY 2019 Mid-Session Review (MSR). As a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the deficit was 3.9 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the previous year."

and so on
and here's the DefenseNews story of Seeing red: US deficit jumps $779 billion, adding budget pressure
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The U.S. federal government is sliding deeper into the red.

The country’s
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rose to $779 billion in fiscal 2018, its highest level in six years as Republican-led tax cuts caused the government to borrow more heavily. That represents a jump of 17 percent over last year, the largest figure since 2012, when the U.S. was spending to stimulate its economy.

The higher deficit spending is expected to add
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. On Oct. 16, U.S. President Donald Trump called for government spending to be cut 5 percent across every federal department, and while his prescription for future defense spending was confused, he seemed to suggest a cut from $717 billion in FY19 to $700 billion in FY20.

The U.S. Treasury
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Oct. 15 the deficit rose $113 billion over the previous year as government spending outpaced revenues. Receipts were generally flat in FY18, while spending increased 3.2 percent as Congress gave more funds for military and domestic programs.

“President Trump prioritized making a significant investment in America’s military after years of reductions in military spending undermined our preparedness and national security,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said.

The Defense Department’s portion of outlays totaled $600.7 billion, which was $8.1 billion or 1.4 percent higher than estimated. The difference was attributed to higher-than-expected disbursements for aircraft and other Air Force procurement contracts ($5 billion), outlays for Army military personnel ($2.5 billion), disbursements for revolving and management funds ($1.5 billion), and disbursements for research, development, test and evaluation contracts ($1.2 billion).

These differences were partially offset by lower-than-expected outlays for operation and maintenance contracts ($1.1 billion) and for military construction contracts ($0.8 billion), as well as higher-than-anticipated receipts.

Revenues generally tumbled after December when Trump signed into law $1.5 trillion of tax cuts over the next decade. The tax cuts have caused economic growth to accelerate this year, with Federal Reserve officials anticipating gains of 3.1 percent. But the Trump administration initially promised that the tax cuts would pay for themselves through stronger growth — and there is no sign so far of that happening.

Mnuchin suggested in a statement that the underlying source of the widening deficit was growth in government spending, rather than the tax cuts.

“Going forward the president’s economic policies that have stimulated strong economic growth, combined with proposals to cut wasteful spending, will lead America toward a sustainable financial path,” Mnuchin said.

But Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said in a commentary published by
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that it’s long been clear tax cuts would not pay for themselves. Meanwhile, Social Security and major government trust funds are headed toward insolvency.

“Perhaps as dangerous as the policy choices, though, are the stories lawmakers are telling themselves about the situation,” MacGuineas said. “First, tax cuts were never going to pay for themselves. Grow the economy? Yes. Pay for themselves? Not even close.”
 
now noticed (also about the electrocution down in Tennessee ...)
The US economy added better-than-expected 250,000 jobs in October
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The US economy added 250,000 jobs in October, significantly exceeding expectations,
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.
The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, a 49-year low. Wages grew 3.1%, strong growth after years of stagnant paychecks.
The number gives President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans a positive talking point as they head into the midterm elections next Tuesday.

The year-over-year percentage growth in average hourly earnings looks larger than it actually is because wages declined last October as low-wage workers returned to their jobs following a particularly strong hurricane season. Month to month, hourly earnings increased by only five cents, a modest increase.
Some of the strong payrolls growth number came from a slight downward revision to September's number, but overall it lifts the average over the past 12 months to 211,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said last month that Hurricane Florence may have depressed job growth, but that Hurricane Michael in the Florida panhandle had "no discernible effect."
Most of the net new jobs came from health care, manufacturing, and construction.
 
Sep 26, 2018
Jun 13, 2018 and

"In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent."

September 26, 2018

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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now
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Fed hikes rate, lowers 2019 projection to 2 increases

  • The Fed take the target range for its benchmark funds rate to 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent.

 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Synthetic rates have recently risen 20 times based Wu-Xia shadow rate model. We might be headed for a recession soon, if not it might already have started, as recessions only tend to be acknowledged way after they started.

John Normand from JP Morgan said the sort of yield spike seen on US investment-grade debt over recent weeks has historically implied an economic recession within three months. The junk bond sell-off, equity volatility and the character of the latest Wall Street slide are all issuing other variants of this signal.

"These indicators are at levels consistent with a recession that begins in the next three to six months," he said. JP Morgan is not yet issuing a "recession call", warning that thin liquidity may have distorted the numbers. It expects a shallow slump akin to the 2001 dot-com bust rather than a Lehmanesque bloodbath if and when it does come.

The Fed rate rises so far do not tell the full story. When combined with the parallel switch from quantitative easing (QE) to quantitative tightening (QT), "synthetic" rates have risen 20 times under the Wu-Xia shadow model.



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Opinion
As risk spreads a global credit 'heart attack' is just months away
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
2008 again.
Apart from that the people will not tolerate the "too big to fail" bailouts.
Every central bank should be in panic mode again.


It will be devastating . : (
 
Feb 6, 2018
whatever the reasons, real or perceived, now the thing is it ain't over yet:
Fasten your seat belts. Dow futures signal another bad day
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EDIT for reference (they'll open in a half of an hour if I'm not mistaken):
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Closed
Last Updated: Feb 5, 2018 4:41 p.m. EST
24,345.75
and now (before they open today) they're at 2018 low:

Dow Jones Industrial Average
23,323.66
 
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