A New Cold War?

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
would you elaborate on Indonesia:

He probably meant securing sea route bypassing Malacca strait thru Indonesia Sunda straits
f33269edc139011213a8d49d4628c5f9.JPG


Anyway you forgot China Myanmar oil/gas pipeline that will add 250000 barrel oil /day that bypass Malacca straits

But China is building large port in Malacca right now and still continue building it
 
He probably meant securing sea route bypassing Malacca strait thru Indonesia Sunda straits
f33269edc139011213a8d49d4628c5f9.JPG
yeah I've heard of Krakatau, now how do you envision "securing sea route bypassing Malacca strait thru Indonesia Sunda straits"
?

Anyway you forgot China Myanmar oil/gas pipeline that will add 250000 barrel oil /day that bypass Malacca straits
the premise of the conversation (or "conversation" LOL) Today at 1:13 PM

(in reaction to
#38 Anlsvrthng, Today at 11:51 AM)

is only less than ten percent of current Chinese oil-import comes in two pipelines from Russia,

and it's irrelevant to this conversation what you claim "will add" whatever from wherever else,

which has nothing to do with whoever "forgot" anything (according to you), as it's out of the context

(it would've been relevant, though, if you had pointed to some EXISTENT third pipeline from Russia of large capacity)


But China is building large port in Malacca right now and still continue building it
my #2 hit of
malacca+port+china
google-search is
'We cannot afford this': Malaysia pushes back on China's big projects

August 21, 2018
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
You don't have to pass Malacca strait going from South China Sea to the Indian Ocean you pass Sunda straits bypassing Melacca

China oil import is around 8 million barrel The Russian and Cental asia pipeline is sround 1 million barrel add to that the Myanmar oil pipeline you get around 1.25 million barrel that is 15% of Chinese import
Plan is a foot to double the Russian and Myanmar pipe line so in the next decade it will be 30% or Chinese import

Melacca port development is still on going Malaysia can't afford to cancel the project because the penalty is huge something like 5 billion dollar if they do it
Mahathir went to China asking for cancellation but to no avail The Chinese is non commit-ant So he postponed it The east coast railway and Kuantan port but not Melacca
But Mahathir is only caretaker premier His tenure will end in 2 years and Anwar will take over the reign
So the project will be revive Anwar just went to China recently and he sounded more friendly toward China then Mahathir which is very prickly nationalist
Melacca was vassal state of China and has historic relation with China going back to 15th century
If not for China Melacca will be absorbed by the Thai or Vietnamese At one time the Vietnamese attack and burn Melacca then the Chinese emperor order Vietnam to get out of Melacca

Here the diplomat article on the subject
Melaka, Malaysia: Chinese History, Chinese Future?
Kuala Lumpur may have concerns about the Belt and Road, but Chinese projects in Melaka are continuing apace.

By Peter Ford
October 31, 2018


MELAKA, MALAYSIA — While Melaka’s Portuguese, Dutch, and British architecture draws many of the crowds to the UNESCO World Heritage city in southern Malaysia, Melaka’s Chinese history is just as fascinating, as is its modern relationship with China.

As the new government of Mahathir Bin Mohamad works to stamp its authority on Malaysia amid the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
against his predecesor Najib Razak, the former government’s trade and development deals made with China have come up for review, and in some cases
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. This has included three projects that fell under China’s ambitious Belt and Road trade and infrastructure development program: the East Coast Rail Link, Multi-Product Pipeline, and Trans-Sabah Gas Pipeline.

In Melaka, Chinese-supported construction is well underway, and appears unaffected by the change in government. The massive
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
reclamation project along the city’s coast, including the creation of four islands for housing, offices, and a deep-water port, has not been stopped, and is having a large impact on the city and among its ethnically Chinese residents, explained Yam, a retired businessman now selling coconuts at the historic Portuguese-era St. John Fort.


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

“The Chinese came here first in 1400-something, then the Portuguese in 1500-something, the Dutch in 1600-something, and finally the British in 1700-something. Now the Chinese are back,” Yam said. His own father had come to Melaka from China in the 1920s.

“All of this is Chinese,” he noted, pointing in the direction of the new islands being constructed. “They are the only one investing in Malaysia. So long as they bring money I don’t mind. But not everyone is happy,” he added. According to Yam, Malay bureaucratic nepotism is fueling corruption in the city, and the vast sums of money spent on the projects are not improving local services or job prospects, especially among the 30 percent of the city residents of Chinese ethnicity.

thediplomat-dsc_0529-790x527.jpg

Shaw apartments, mall, and aquarium tower over the traditional Malay bungalows of Kampong Morten. Photo by Peter Ford.

When the Portuguese conquered Melaka in 1511, the sultanate had already been trading with China for over 100 years. The sultan had married a daughter of the Ming Emperor of China, who brought some 500 staff, maids, and attendants with her.

“The Chinese development in Melaka helps to slingshot Melaka in making [the city] great again in the marine and port industries,” explained Nazary Ahmad, former CEO of Melaka River and Coastal Development Corporation, who was recently ousted following the change in government.

“It does benefit the residents in many ways, one of it is creating more jobs opportunities,” he noted in an email.

But outside of manual jobs and concrete sales, the direct value to city residents of the new construction is unclear. The only completed building on Melaka Island drawing any visitors is the Melaka Straits Mosque, built on stilts to give it a floating appearance at high tide, and gaudily lit up at night. Whole neighborhoods of apartments and shops lie abandoned, with “for sale” and “to let” signs optimistically plastered to boarded up windows. The newly constructed faux-European The Riveria sits unused, yet towering over everything is the vast shell of a new mega hotel under construction.
 
Last edited:

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
is only less than ten percent of current Chinese oil-import comes in two pipelines from Russia,

That ten percent (plus Kazakhstan and the natural gas) makes the difference between loosing a war, or win.
And top of it there is the natural gas, usable as chemical feed directly, or to liquefy coal.
Japan hasn't had this supply during second world war.

And there is the rail , that can supply 1-4 million barrel per day. At least.
 
Oct 14, 2018
...


gas:
Russia’s Huge Natural Gas Pipeline To China Nearly Complete
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

dated Sep 06, 2018;

"Export capacity: 38 billion cubic meters per year"
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


and in 2017 China imported
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
about 91 (unit as right above), so it's almost half

just saying
so how do you in this sense:
There is additional natural gas capacity from Russia as well.

That is 600 000 barrel / day.
Oil equivalent .
(I mean technically, your "oil equivalent" is exactly ...)
?
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Oct 14, 2018so how do you in this sense:
(I mean technically, your "oil equivalent" is exactly ...)
?
Back on the envelope , one cubic meter is one is equivalent of one litre of crude ,160 litre is one barrel , so it is easy to calculate from here.

It has lot of moving data, density/energy content of crude/natural gas, but it gives a good number to exchange the natural gas to oil.

Additionally, the natural gas mainly methane ( CH4) the crude is long chain oil ( CH2- ) means natural gas + coal = kerosene ,diesel or petrol.

Means from one kg of natural gas + one kg of coal makes two kg of kerosene.

But example for NH3 ( ammonia) the natural gas is the best, and that is the prerequisite for ammonium-nitrate, HNO3 , trinitrotoluene and so on.
So, natural gas required to make fertilisers and high explosive, and to increase the conversion ratio to light fuels (kerosene, petrol,diesel) from crude. (hydrogen for reforming ) - hydrogen needed (from nat gas) to close the catalytically cracked carbon chains.

The original haber-boch process used coal, but that is very wastefully, and equipment intensive ( see historical pictures of 39°39'21.42" N 125°41'51.85" E )
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
The problem with China is that, even with the new pipelines coming online, the number of vehicles they have and thus their oil consumption are both still increasing.
The natural gas might be used as a replacement for petroleum in the chemical fertilizer industry as it can be used as feed stock for ammonia production. But I am not sure how much oil use this natural gas could displace. I think it will mostly be used for combined heat and gas power plants to clean up the air in major population centers or for heating application in China's north. So most of it will be used to replace coal rather than oil. It can be used for public transportation in buses but I think that makes less sense for China than for, say, Russia.

I think the solution for China's oil import issue is to continue building their electric rail systems and eventually replace more vehicles with electric cars. I think all the major electric rail investments will be done and over in like 3-5 years tops though. So once we go past that point electric cars must be part of the solution. They should at least replace as many of the buses with those and those which cannot be electric should be converted to natural gas. Both to improve air quality and to reduce their imports. They Chinese already have a substantial amount of industry in this area but I have never seen numbers on the de-carbonization of their public transportation fleet.
 
Last edited:

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
He probably meant securing sea route bypassing Malacca strait thru Indonesia Sunda straits
f33269edc139011213a8d49d4628c5f9.JPG


Anyway you forgot China Myanmar oil/gas pipeline that will add 250000 barrel oil /day that bypass Malacca straits

But China is building large port in Malacca right now and still continue building it

I think China should keep a low profile for now, within the 1st Island chain, or else they risk overreach. The Japanese also tried controlling the entirety of Southeast Asia and IMHO this is one of the reasons for their failure. At that time they had no other option because they needed oil and rubber. But right now this area is of little consequence. China is a major land power and has a decent air force. But they lack the logistics for long distance prolonged campaigns. So if they want to fight this on their own terms, so they can win, they should force anyone wanting to pick a fight with them to fight it on their own turf. i.e. as close to China as possible. It is perfectly fine to make investments in these places. But both those countries not only are Muslim majorities culturally a lot different from the rest of East Asia but each comes with their own issues. Indonesia has enough issues keeping itself integrated and stable as it is. Getting a military presence in there would not only alarm the Australians further, causing them to make more concessions to the USA, it would also put China in a shaky security position IMHO.
 
Top