PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Serb said:

That's why they built a shit ton of strategic reserves for commodities and energy during the last few years (state and SOEs), buying from abroad (but they also have massive untapped unmined reserves inside of their own territory they didn't overuse so far, instead imported, just for this reason), elevated relations with Russia to the highest level, and became a dominant force in renewable energy technology production at home.

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Since the USD is suffering from high inflation and long-term devaluation in comparison to China, it makes sense to buy more commodities and energy now, because those USD will be worth less in real terms in the future.

Plus there are now serious concerns about how the US can sustain current levels of budget deficits and national debt increases. If this doesn't change, then the USD will suffer a crisis of confidence, I reckon in 10-20 years.

Maikeru said:

Just on the Korea point, if Elbridge Colby is indeed appointed NSA in a 2nd Trump admin then it is likely that US forces will leave South Korea, at least most of them:

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The US is in a dilemma over South Korea.

1. If they keep US troops in South Korea, then China can always force the US into a ground war on the Korean Peninsula.

2. If the US withdraws its ground units from South Korea, then South Korea will seek better relations with China, for security against North Korea. After all, North Korea is dependent on China for 90% of its trade. From China's perspective, South Korea is a better partner than North Korea eg. stability, trade, semiconductors etc

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Overall, I don't see US troops leaving South Korea, despite what Trump and Colby may want.

I think the majority of US lawmakers (who control spending) would see a US retreat from South Korea as unacceptable, because it would result in increased Chinese influence.

AndrewS said:

In general, the ASEAN countries don't want to become a battleground where the US military and Chinese military fight.

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The US is not going to give them a choice. Note the mostly American-led attempts in recent years to overthrow governments bordering China and replace them with puppets willing to turn them into Ukraines. Mostly unsuccessful but still, the efforts alone show what the game plan was supposed to be. Some of those governments have learned from this experience that their only choice is to align closely with China for their own survival (against American machinations) or become Ukraines.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

China has the 4th largest reserves in iron and lithium and 7th in nickel. China prefers imports for strategic and environmental reasons.

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And to dispose those dollars they accumulated

At the end of the day, China will reclaim its historical role as number one in East Asia, that part of the region is term as Sinosphere for a reason. SK and Japan will do the talk and nothing more, acceptance will be gradual as we are still in the denial stage. And China hold the initiative not the US, there are many levers that can be employed to inflict massive destruction both economically and militarily. The American knew it so the challenge is how to control your vassals and minions to stay and not drift away.

The challenge for China is how to manage the US decline, do they have to force it or do nothing. Doing nothing means that China had to bear it until they have achieved their goal of Comprehensive National Power. So being Patience is a virtue an exact opposite of instant gratification that is so prevalent in the west.

ansy1968 said:

Doing nothing means that China had to bear it until they have achieved their goal of Comprehensive National Power. So being Patience is a virtue an exact opposite of instant gratification that is so prevalent in the west.

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Follow example of the state of Wu vis-a-vis Yue during the Spring and Autumn period. Sleep on thorns and eat bitterness. Except in this case China doesn't need to engage in any armed conflict, just need to keep developing and prospering peacefully as the threat from the opposing side fades into irrelevance.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

Follow example of the state of Wu vis-a-vis Yue during the Spring and Autumn period. Sleep on thorns and eat bitterness. Except in this case China doesn't need to engage in any armed conflict, just need to keep developing and prospering peacefully as the threat from the opposing side fades into irrelevance.

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That's why I don't believed China will initiate a conflict, so do the Americans, there's a saying in the Philippine "Pag Napikon ka talo" ( when you lose your cool you lost). That is what the American and its vassals are doing, goating China to make mistake and look foolish. BUT they are dealing a thousand years old civilization, they're in the know having been there, done that and this kind of Childish behavior isn't new to the Chinese.

China has many great reasons not to take taiwan by force yet. It is still enjoying a massive trade surplus year after year. China can still potentially grow its navy and airforce twice the size of U.S.

China is very close to surpass U.S airforce at the west pacific.

Article by Joseph WU (Taiwan FM) in Foreign Affairs: