World News Thread & Breaking News!!

[Scratch]

Re: World News Thread

Hell of a mess for Russia to deal with.

A lot of the wider middle eastern conflicts are linked by personal / ideological exchanges it feels, and I think they largerly share a common primary enemy (US / West, or their local governments supported by the former). These conflicts are also largely on the news.

So are at least the caucasian / central asian islamist insurgencies linked in a similar way (e.g. opposing Russia), or are all these so locally focused / ideollogicly diverse that they don't really care about each other? It at least appears that I always hear about those conflicts seperately, but hardly ever connected to each other, as opposed to the middle eastern ones.

The ME insurgencies also seem to have general state sponsors here and there, these sharing the same opponent.
I hardly hear about caucasian or central asian islamist forces being sponsored by somebody. I wouldn't really believe that doesn't happen. But if it does, on the other hand, the sponsors should be pretty much the same.
Now, these sponsors are normaly themselves the recievers of russian arms exports. I'm wondering how that would play out if something came out.
Because if factions that e.g. Iran / Syria support elsewhere start to link up with caucasian anti-russian forces, Russia itself might be less willing to supply these countries with stuff.

The criminal gangs most likely won't care, but the ideology has link up forces wide apart lately, I'm wondering if / when that will appear in Russia's periphery.

 

[Finn McCool]

Re: World News Thread

I think that there's the possibility for the various violent entities in the Caucasus to link up and form some sort of united front against Russia. But that's hard based on how their culture is (inherently fractious, local, violent and tribal). And not everyone's motivations are truly political.

As for foreign sponsors for Caucasus violence, I wouldn't say there are very many. Perhaps Georgia; they're right across the border and certainly have a huge grudge against Russia and a military interest in Russia being kept on the defensive. I've not heard of anything about Georgian support for Islamists or anyone else in the Caucasus. Other than Georgia, who has enough to gain from supporting violence against Russia in the Caucasus to make it worth the risk/costs? Who has the capability? No one, really.

You seemed to be alluding to Iran. I haven't heard anything about Iran supporting Caucasus insurgencies and couldn't think of why they would considering the support Iran gets from Russia. However, I think that Russia's support and defense of the regime in Iran is incredibly short-sighted given the fact that Iran is an expansionist power with a long history of using local Islamic militants to their own ends and it's right next to the part of Russia that has a flaming Islamic insurgency, as well as oil deposits and transport routes. Russia needs to realize that they're helping to create a dangerous (not to mention totally f***ed up and immoral) power right on their own exposed underbelly, just to mess with the United States. Short-sighted, like I said.

 

[Scratch]

Re: World News Thread

All right, really informative, thanks, and lot to agree with.

However, I think that Russia's support and defense of the regime in Iran is incredibly short-sighted given the fact that Iran is an expansionist power with a long history of using local Islamic militants to their own ends and it's right next to the part of Russia that has a flaming Islamic insurgency, as well as oil deposits and transport routes.

That's exactly were I'm getting, I guess.
Iran as of now needs strong russian support (nuclear program, weapons purchases). But Iran is also putting a lot of emphasis on getting self sufficient in these things. So at some point they may not need Russia as much anymore. Furthermore, if one of the ME factions that Iran supports decides to link up with a caucasian faction, iranian weapons might just as well turn up in one of the hot-spots you described. That complete issue has become so much more fluent recently. I wonder if Iran has so much leverage that it can command it's henchmen with whom to share and with whom not.

On a side note: China, with all it did over the last decades seems to have had a long time plan. Russia is just kind of angry about it's power loss after the SU fell, so right now they want it back asap with brute force and big impatience.

 

[Finn McCool]

Re: World News Thread

I wonder if Iran has so much leverage that it can command it's henchmen with whom to share and with whom not.

On a side note: China, with all it did over the last decades seems to have had a long time plan. Russia is just kind of angry about it's power loss after the SU fell, so right now they want it back asap with brute force and big impatience.

Iran has a huge amount of leverage over Hezbollah. Less over Hamas, because Hamas is more isolated and in less direct contact with Iran. If the Iranians wanted to export insurgency to the Caucasus I'd imagine they would use Hezbollah people, or at least they'd use the same techniques they did with Hezbollah (i.e. find competent local actors, establish a supply line to them, make them dependent on Iranian training, weapons, intelligence and use them to destabilize).

This can be countered, I think. I believe, based on what evidence I have, that the US did it in Iraq in 2007-2010. Remember the "Special Groups" of Shiite militia in Iraq? (

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I think those were Iran's attempts at creating a Hezbollah-style force in Iraq after breaking with Muqtada al-Sadr (we know they were armed and directed by Iran). We don't hear about the "Special Groups" anymore, they've vanished from the news out of Iraq. In fact all Shiite violence has. I also know that US Spec Ops/CIA conducted a concerted effort against the Special Groups in 2007-2009, with publicly acknowledged arrests of leaders and even Iranian "diplomats". What I think happened with this situation is that the US nipped the formation of an Iranian proxy army in the bud and Iran backed off to bide its time.

So Iran's tactics can be countered, but Russia is playing with fire. I wanted to give you an idea of how Iran operates, and I just wanted to run my theory by SDF and see what everyone thinks.

As for the thing about China vs. Russia in terms of grand strategy: I always say the "short term" for Chinese leaders is 35 years. Putin on the other hand has been focused on making Russia back into something resembling the late Tsarist era, and giving it a sense of pride, and while he has been largely successful, I fear for what Russia will do without him.

 

[Scratch]

Re: World News Thread

Interesting info / analysis, thanks again.

Seculiar violance has indeed vanished from news out of Iraq. Right now I guess forces are trying to destabilize the country and undermine the confidance in iraqi forces to provide for their own safty after the US is pulling out.
I wonder if this will be seen as another chance by more parties there.
Apparently Abu Dura, the "shiite Zarqawi", has returned to Iraq after spending two years in Qom were he has recieved further instruction from the IRGC.

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Using the combined special forces / intel community to counter those developments seems to have been successfull for the US and might be a role model for future engagements elsewhere. I doubt, however, that Russia could do that with the effectiveness.
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There has also been a terror attack in Tajikistan today, not much about it yet.

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Suicide blast kills senior Tajik police officer

By Akbar Borisov (AFP) – 5 hours ago

DUSHANBE — A suicide bomber in an explosives-packed car slammed into a police station in Tajikistan on Friday, killing a senior police official and wounding at least 25 others, interior ministry officials said.

 

[Scratch]

Re: World News Thread

Another attack on security forces in the Caucasus, this time in Dagestan. It's heating up all around Russia's underbelly.

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Dagestan car bombing kills five Russian soldiers

5 September 2010 Last updated at 07:29 GMT

A suicide car bombing at a military base in the southern Russian region of Dagestan has killed five soldiers and wounded about 40 others.

The bomber smashed a car laden with explosives through the gate of a camp near Buynaksk, an interior ministry spokesman said. [...]

Shootings and bombings have become frequent in Dagestan, which is battling a growing Islamist insurgency.

Earlier, Dagestan's minister for national, religious and foreign affairs, Bekmurza Bekmurzayev, was wounded in a car bombing in the region's capital, Makhachkala, along with two bodyguards. His driver was killed.

Dagestan is in the North Caucasus, which has long suffered Islamist and separatist violence. Violence has recently spread from Chechnya to neighbouring republics. ...

 

[zoom]

Re: World News Thread

TU-154 forest landing in Russia

This is some passenger video after the plane comes to a halt.What a weird situation !

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[Finn McCool]

Re: World News Thread

This might be a bit touchy, but I think we can sound off on it in a mature manner, and if you're going to freak out because of something someone said (which I don't think anyone on here will, all the regulars are reasonable people) just say "I respectfully disagree" and excuse yourself from the thread.

Fla. pastor will 'not today, not ever' burn Quran
– Sat Sep 11, 10:24 am ET
NEW YORK – A Florida pastor says his church will "not today, not ever" burn a Quran, even if a mosque is built near ground zero.
Pastor Terry Jones had threatened to burn the Muslim holy book on the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks over plans to build an Islamic center near where terrorists brought down the World Trade Center nine years ago.
He flew to New York and appeared on NBC's "Today" show. He says that his Gainesville, Fla., church's goal was "to expose that there is an element of Islam that is very dangerous and very radical."
He tells NBC that "we have definitely accomplished that mission." He says no meeting is planned with the imam leading the center but he hopes one will take place.
A "Burn a Koran Day" banner outside his church has been taken down

Looks like the show's over. Thankfully reason prevailed. Here's hoping reason will prevail on the other major question involving Islam in the United States, the Park 51 Muslim Community Center. Here's an excellent article that elucidates some very important points about that debate far better than I ever could:

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3 things:
Firstly, I'd like to ask any SDF members who live in Muslim-majority nations (I know we've got a Malaysian or two, and I think we might have a couple of Pakistanis as well) if the fact that the Qurans weren't burned counts for anything. Do people realize and care that so many Americans came out against Jones, and that we ultimately stopped him? Or has the damage been done, impressions made, and this second act doesn't really matter? I've already heard that a popular conspiracy theory that's spreading in some Arab nations and Pakistan (they absolutely love conspiracy theories over there) is that Obama orchestrated this whole thing just so he could make a show of denouncing it and thus help America's image amongst Muslims. Same thing for the "Ground Zero mosque". If it actually does get built, will that change how this whole debate has made America look?

Secondly, I'd like to say there's a real difference between the act of Quran burning and the "Prophet Muhammad cartoons" incidents of the last few years. The cartoons were an exercise of free speech, as is the Quran burning, but the cartoons were not created with the intent to make a worldwide media s**tstorm and purely for the purpose of offending Muslims. Burning a Quran has no other possible purpose as speech than to severely offend and provoke, and as such it can arguably meet the legal standard of "shouting fire in a crowded theater", i.e. speech that can be restricted because it has literally no validity and is purely harmful. On the other hand, while drawing a picture of Muhammad can offend, it can also have other purposes, and is not even expressly forbidden to non-Muslims by Islam, which means the violence with which many radical Muslims reacted to the cartoons is wrong even based on their warped logic. I think in the Quran burning case "Pastor" Jones was in the wrong when he concocted the plan, while in the Muhammad cartoons case the wrong began when Islamic radicals started threatening to kill people.

Lastly, I think that this incident will go a long way towards reducing negative sentiment towards Muslims in the US. Why? Because the actions of Pastor Jones have made the United States appear to be a nation of radical bigots in the eyes of the world. Americans don't think like Pastor Jones and they don't like an idiot like that speaking for us. And guess what? That's exactly how Muslims feel about the actions of Al Qaeda and other global jihadists. Now that the shoe is on the other foot so to speak, perhaps Americans that felt suspicion towards Muslims and opposed the "Ground Zero Mosque" will realize the error in placing group blame on Muslims for the actions of terrorists.

 

[Scratch]

Re: World News Thread

A very interesting aspect you bring up here, and questions to wich I'd like to see some answers as well.

Secondly, I'd like to say there's a real difference between the act of Quran burning and the "Prophet Muhammad cartoons" incidents of the last few years. The cartoons were an exercise of free speech, as is the Quran burning [...]

I agree with that difference you make out there, however, I have issues with even accapting the Quran burning idea as a way of free speech. I believe books it whatever form are an expression of free speech themselves, hence burning them is, IMO, a denial of free spech.
And since one's own rights stop were they hurt the rights of others this burning is not making use of the right of free spech, but actually a crime in denying it to others.
The wording I use is really harsh and perhaps not fully correct, but in lack of a better english lexicon, I hope you get what I mean.

 

[bd popeye]

Re: World News Thread

German Chancellor A Merkel say a multi-cultural society has failed in Germany

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by Audrey Kauffmann Audrey Kauffmann – Sun Oct 17, 11:50 am ET

BERLIN (AFP) – Germany's attempt to create a multi-cultural society has failed completely, Chancellor Angela Merkel said at the weekend, calling on the country's immigrants to learn German and adopt Christian values.

Merkel weighed in for the first time in a blistering debate sparked by a central bank board member saying the country was being made "more stupid" by poorly educated and unproductive Muslim migrants.

"Multikulti", the concept that "we are now living side by side and are happy about it," does not work, Merkel told a meeting of younger members of her conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party at Potsdam near Berlin.

"This approach has failed, totally," she said, adding that immigrants should integrate and adopt Germany's culture and values.

"We feel tied to Christian values. Those who don't accept them don't have a place here," said the chancellor.

"Subsidising immigrants" isn't sufficient, Germany has the right to "make demands" on them, she added, such as mastering the language of Goethe and abandoning practices such as forced marriages.

Merkel spoke a week after talks with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in which they pledged to do more to improve the often poor integration record of Germany's 2.5-million-strong Turkish community.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul, in a weekend interview, also urged the Turkish community living in Germany to master the language of their adopted country.

"When one doesn't speak the language of the country in which one lives that doesn't serve anyone, neither the person concerned, the country, nor the society," the Turkish president told the Suedeutsche Zeitung.

"That is why I tell them at every opportunity that they should learn German, and speak it fluently and without an accent. That should start at nurseries."

German President Christian Wulff was due for a five-day visit to Turkey and talks with the country's leaders on Monday.

The immigration debate has at times threatened to split Merkel's conservative party, and she made noises to both wings of the debate.

While saying that the government needed to encourage the training of Muslim clerics in Germany, Merkel said "Islam is part of Germany", echoeing the recent comments of Wulff, a liberal voice in the party.

Horst Seehofer, the leader of the CDU's Bavarian sister party, CSU, who represents the right-wing, recently said Germany did not "need more immigrants from different cultures like the Turks and Arabs" who are "more difficult" to integrate.

While warning against "immigration that weighs down on our social system", Merkel said Germany needed specialists from overseas to keep the pace of its economic development.

According to the head of the German chamber of commerce and industry, Hans Heinrich Driftmann, Germany is in urgent need of about 400,000 engineers and qualified workers, whose lack is knocking about one percent off the country's growth rate.

The integration of Muslims has been a hot button issue since August when a member of Germany's central bank sparked outrage by saying the country was being made "more stupid" by poorly educated and unproductive Muslim migrants with headscarves.

The banker, Thilo Sarrazin, has since resigned but his book on the subject -- "Germany Does Itself In" -- has flown off the shelves, and polls showed considerable sympathy for some of his views.

A recent study by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation think tank showed around one-third of Germans feel the country is being "over-run by foreigners" and the same percentage feel foreigners should be sent home when jobs are scarce.

Nearly 60 percent of the 2,411 people polled thought the around four million Muslims in Germany should have their religious practices "significantly curbed."

Far-right attitudes are found not only at the extremes of German society, but "to a worrying degree at the centre of society," the think tank said in its report.

"Hardly eight weeks have passed since publication of Sarrazin's theory of decline, and the longer the debate continues to a lower level it falls," the weekly Der Spiegel commented Sunday.