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Discussion in 'Members' Club Room' started by b787, Oct 9, 2017.

  1. vesicles
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    vesicles Senior Member

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    b787, I got a couple of questions for you.

    1) do you think China will keep growing and eventually be as developed as western European countries and US?

    2) do you think China's current level is the best that they can do and they will go downhills from now on and eventually collapse?

    If you agree with (1), is it wise to invest now when the business jet market is still low, which will give you an opportunity to occupy major shares in the future Chinese market?

    If you agree with (2), no need to explain. I understand where our differences lie.
     
  2. vesicles
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    vesicles Senior Member

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    I would think it's a good idea. Many wealthy Chinese definitely have the money and many of them seem to do a lot of things (many of them stupid) to show off their newly found wealth. So it would not be difficult to convince some of them to buy a business jet.
     
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  3. B.I.B.
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    B.I.B. Senior Member

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    OK if I got that sort of money, but then I would need someone to sell me a super luxury yacht which I berth in the Bahamas or the Med and use my jet to fly out there.
     
  4. b787
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    b787 Senior Member

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    Please first do not insult your self, i have been very respectful to you.

    For starters, a VW car does not cost as much as an Embraer Phenom, neither cost as expensive to operate.


    People usually pay their cars on monthly installments, but a private jet is ultra expensive, so much that people will share its ownership or even rent it just for a few hours.


    Will the Chinese Market grow? of course it does, but so is the Brazilian or even Nigerian private jet market, the American Market just to replace older private jets will get almost 4000 new jets.

    Same is the European Market.

    Your problem is you think China is the only Market growing and you equate a car to a private jet aircraft, for starters i doubt you own a private jet, but i am almost sure you probably own a car.


    Private jets are luxurious things, only for rich corrupt politicians and their Families, a few ultra rich business men and their companies, a few ultra successful artists and celebrities such as John Travolta or Elvis Presley.

    Mass travel is for averages guys like my self, I can pay a USD $600 dollars for a flight to Australia or $60 dollars for a flight to Tokyo, but I can not pay for a private jets.


    When you realize that you will understand why Embraer first went for Erj-145s and after that started with Phenom jets, first you go for the market of average guys and later for the ultra rich, China for that reason is thinking in C-919 and ARJ-21s later perhaps they might go other types because there is more market in average guys than in ultra rich guys, so if a company wants to make aircraft first they will go for aircraft types that have a large market, not very limited.

    A private jet is as expensive you like it or not to a fighter aircraft, Some Cessna jet aircraft cost as much as a trainer jet aircraft and are as expensive to operate and some private jets are as expensive as a F-16 or A-10 to operate and purchase
     
  5. b787
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    b787 Senior Member

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  6. vesicles
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    vesicles Senior Member

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    If you think China will be as developed as Europe and the US, then the Chinese business jet market will be at least as big as and maybe even bigger than Europe and the US.

    The logic is so simple. A business jet can last decades. I don't see how replacing old jets can beat demands in a new and giant market. Even if you can replace every jet every year, that will only allow you to maintain the current level of sales. It won't allow you to expand. And you will get a flat line when you show your stockholders your performance.

    Although Brazil is another emerging market, its size is much smaller than China. That's why everyone is focusing on China, not Brazil.

    As I have said many many times, I don't care how expensive to operate a business jet. If billionaires in Europe and the Us can do it, same billionaires in China can do it. Price is not an issue. It is another luxury good like any other luxury good.

    If you agree that China will be as developed as Europe and the US, then there would be no reason that you should doubt China would be the next big market for business jet.

    Let's follow your logic.

    1) You have painfully painted the business jet market as a purely money issue.

    2) you have accepted that China will be as developed as Europe and the US.

    --> then logic dictates:

    1) there will be as many Chinese billionaires as those in Europe and the US.

    2) Business jet demand in China will be as big as that in Europe and the US.

    Simple as that.
     
    #26 vesicles, Oct 12, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
  7. vesicles
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    vesicles Senior Member

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    By the way, I was not insulting myself. It's called sarcasm. I was attempting to remind you that you have been condescending. Constantly stating "do you understand" or "you don't understand" is insulting and condescending. When you are having a discussion with someone, always assume they are as smart and intelligent as you are. State facts and your own opinion on the matter and then move on. No need to judge others.

    The fact that you tirelessly keep posting videos on how expensive to operate business jets suggests to me that you are not listening to me at all.

    No point to continue the discussion. You are welcome to whatever you believe. Good night.
     
    #27 vesicles, Oct 12, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
  8. b787
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    b787 Senior Member

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    well if it is apples or Oranges China is not yet there, when it is there tell me, I highly recommend you go to Rural China, stop dreaming, Mexico and Brazil are the number 2 and 3 Private markets of jet aircraft and we have millions of poor for each guy who owns a jet in Mexico; we have millions in poverty, when you go to rural China and go to the conditions where millions live of poor workers, for a reason you live in Texas and not in China, and it is the same reason i Live in Japan
     
  9. vesicles
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    vesicles Senior Member

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    I promise this will be last post on the matter.

    Apple is a highly successful company and very well established. It is still making a lot of money. Would you be willing to pay $900 a share to buy Apple stocks?

    You want to buy low when a company is still not doing well but has so much potential.

    Everybody dreams to find a stock that is $1 now but will eventually go up to $1000 a share. If you say "I know this company is going to be big but I will wait and only buy their stocks when it's $1000 a share, Good for you!

    My last post.
     
  10. b787
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    b787 Senior Member

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    You are wrong the most lucrative jets are A-320 and B-737 types because are expensive, around USD $70-100 million dollars and the B-787 and B-777 type aircraft, they are expensive and are needed.

    Most people nowadays fly on B-737 or B-787 type aircraft, regional jets are not as demanded, smaller private jets have a very small market, and each aircraft is much cheaper, so less profit to make.

    If you sell 1000 A-350 and you sell 1000 Phenoms, well let me tell you there is more revenue and profits in A-350, not for nothing smaller aircraft manufacturers like Comac, Mitsubishi, Bombardier, Embraer, Yakolev/Irkut or Sukhoi are betting in the 100-240 passenger civil jet aircraft; Embraer and Bombardier are in the private jet business, but their main products are CS-100 and E-195 and Boeing is the the big league, far far ahead of Pilatus with their new Private jet.


     
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